They slow down this time of year because of the holidays. Should be back to normal in January I would think.

 

Yep, schedule currently shows a new hire class on Jan 2 and every Tuesday after that until the Nov/Dec holidays next year.

 

Pretty typical.

 

current vacancy bid has over 200 unfilled 737 Captain assignments on the first snapshot, so looks like there will be a bunch of Captain assignments available for the classes coming up in Jan and beyond.

 

Forcing upgrades to new hires will still take around one year before they’re actually required to fill the Captain vacancy. So what are they going to do to fill those 200 unfilled positions? Couldn’t they just junior man upgrades to the pilots fresh off probation in seniority order?

 

Nope. Contract doesn't allow that!

So, the company is putting out bids now for Captain needs not just now, but also for late 24 early 25. Not sure what their true need is for the summer of 24, but I imagine whoever takes a bid for 737 Captain that can actually go to school legally right now will be going immediately. On paper some folks are going to look like they have a bunch of folks junior to them, but the reality is it will be some time before most of the bid holders in DEN,SFO or EWR are legal to go to Captain school.

Figure the bids will keep coming because they are going to have to make sure they can cover whatever the theoretical flying for the summer of 2025 is! With all the 737 deliveries that are scheduled that will be a bunch, but this is definitely a new risk for them as the summer 2025 plan is prob written in very lite pencil at this point

 

So those 200 Captain Vacancy’s are looking almost 2 years out?!

I’d have to think that’s not enough to start forcing upgrades in new hire class. Unless they really don’t want to deal with the uncertainty of how many pilots fresh off probation will take the immediate available upgrade.

 

They conceivably could be 18 months out (vacancy good for 120 days, given to a NH who starts mid-march 2024, goes to training mid-march 2025 and gets off IOE summer 2025)

And no, they really don't want to deal with the uncertainty ... that was the point of the new contract

 

The CA bids are currently available to anyone on property and there are still 200+ unfilled on the snapshot. You no longer have to be off probation to bid for and hold it, however you do currently have to be off probation to start training (that can change once reserve rules are implemented in August). So currently there aren’t enough pilots on property willing to staff the left seat. I heard through the rumor mill that the 3 most junior pilots in the last class with prior qualifying flight time were “forced” into CA positions. If it hasn’t already started, it will soon.

 

I don't think the 8 ball has gotten a CA spot yet. Until that happens, CA spots have been voluntary. I hope the union is watching the NH classes and prevening an abridgement of seniority if the company tries to force a NH to take a CA spot if they're the last one legal for it when there are FO spots still available to choose from.