No, the laughable comment was the reference to the flight school as a potential scab factory. That was a stretch even for the APC level of crazy found here sometimes. It’s always good for a laugh though.

 

I think your suffering from a bad case of the sunk cost fallacy with Aviate. In good times, having a pipeline of talent in a tight labor market is prudent and forward looking. No argument there.

However, the good times and growth are gone. The labor market is about to be flooded with highly qualified pilots, and industry demand will be down for an estimated 3-5 years. That’s the estimate to get back to where we are, not a growth phase that would require a pipeline of new pilots.

Between the big 4 airlines, there’s likely to be 10,000 qualified pilots furloughed. When those pilots are recalled, there will be thousands more qualified pilots at the regionals to meet modest growth. In other words, there no reason for Aviate to exist for the the next 4-6 years based on an 18 month zero to hero training cycle.

UAL has announced suspension of CAPEX not directly related to the core mission. Further, the company is asking for deep concessions from labor.

Aviate is a business unit of UAL Corp training pilots to work at UAX airlines. This is not an expense that’s required by our core mission for at least 4 years, likely longer. UAL doesn’t need to run a flight school or even pay a single person to sit at a desk and sort minority, gay, straight, military, or multi-gender pilot applications. It’s not needed.

The last time United furloughed pilots. Pilot recruitment was shuttered completely for the better part of a decade. It just wasn’t needed. According to SK, COVID is worse than 9/11 and 2008 combined.

Aviate is a good idea, but only in a tight labor market during a growth cycle. Philosophically, for UAL to ask for cuts from labor while not being true to cutting non-essential CAPEX is disingenuous and insulting. In that light, my stance is full pay to the last day, don’t ask me to help a company that can’t help itself.

 

Anyone with less than 3000 - 4000 hrs can probably forget about the majors for another five years - unless those are military hours. If the Big Three actually execute the downsizing that they are predicting, it may be three years before they get their own furloughed people back who already have seniority numbers. During that time the. US military will pump out an additional 1100-1200 pilots annually. Most of them will be more competitive than regional pilots, the more so because they will have had another three years of seasoning themselves.

So yes, if those furloughs actually DO happen, this could easily be a four or five year career setback for a lot of people, more so for furloughed regional guys. That would pretty well obsolete Aviate, flow programs, sponsored RTP programs, signing bonuses...etc.

 

I agree with the above but I am not throwing the towel in yet on furloughs. I am (ignorantly?) hopeful a miracle appears before Oct-1.

I would say all these college-based "cadet" programs will be rendered obsolete. If my son was mid-way thru, I would finish whatever ticket was pending then shift gears to computer/IT degree, or a health related field. if possible

 

I actually think it won’t be nearly as bad as these worst-case scenarios, but the Big Three are getting hurt badly if there are any furloughs at all. Take Delta... those new A220s. Pretty much everyone in them is furlough or at least downgrade bait. And yet not a single senior guy who would be displaced into these machines is type rated in them. My guess is that the Big Three will end up downsized to a degree as they try to consolidate their fleets around fewer leet types while at the same time SWA and the smaller single type airlines F9, NK, and whatever they eventually designate Breeze to be, will be trying to gain domestic market share.

SWA is likely to have its pick of the military guys coming out as well as the junior furloughed from the Big Three. The others are unlikely to pick up any furloughed (knowing they are going to eventually lose them) so NK, F9, and Breeze are going to wind up with the pick of the regional flyers for awhile.

The only way that doesn’t hold true IMO is if international flying makes an unexpectedly robust comeback, but even if it does, trimming their fleets is going to cause hiring at the Big Three to be low enough I don’t think they’ll see the need for cadet or flow programs or the like.

 

Seneca Captain,

Why have them throw in the towel? This is just another bump in a long bumpy road.
Since deregulation there has been little stability in the airline pilot career. If stability is what a son or daughter was looking for, this was never the career to pick in the first place.

This event will not stop retirements, and when demand returns the wave riding done by those hired afterward might be impressive. Of course they could pick the "wrong" airline even in good times. This industry has been a gamble, and who knows how this latest upset will turn out. If someone accepts that, it could be as good of a time as any to start in this unpredictable and yet rewarding career.

SP

 

Sounds like someone butt-hurt they didn’t get into it... All the people who made it into the program did nothing to you or anyone else clamoring for its downfall. It was an opportunity some people were fortunate to take advantage of at the time. We all got caught with our pants down and if they want to keep the program dormant for a bit so long as it doesn’t cost anything, what’s the issue? I mostly think it’s guys like you who didn’t get the call are the ones that want to see it crumble so you feel better about yourself.

 

Thats your take away??? I thought I was just outlining why theres no longer any need for it but that they should keep the commitment to those in it.

 

It was this part of your post.

“UAL doesn't need the recruits cause they can pick from fully qualified regional cargo military and LCCs all day long“

The people in the program are qualified too, of course others that were denied are better than me. I also overreacted. It was the best day of my life when I found out I was a part of this and on track to join a Legacy airline. Now I have to look for a job outside of the career I love while simultaneously reading about how all the individuals in the program (me) are now worthless comparatively to others possibly for 5+ years. So sorry about the mean response but I’m still a guy chasing the dream too.

 

The pilot shortage has officially come to a screeching halt though I dare say there was never any shortage to start with. Ab initio programs have always made sense to me (and the whole World) so the only reason I don’t like them today is because they’re weren’t around 20 years ago;-) Not a priority any more to train cookie cutter candidates tailored to your culture or preference. Propel or Aviate back to reality.