Originally Posted by bottoms up

not what I said. If demand doesn’t increase I believe the company will furlough the 2007, throw out a displacement big, get everyone in position and then cut deep triggering the end of the TA right around sept 2022 when they have used all the production they can out of it. Plus or minus a few months but this is exactly what I think is coming. My only edit would be perhaps in Dec 2021 company asking for more or additional furloughs.

you do realize we are around 40% block now. We might be up to 50% this time next year. It’s going to be a slow crawl and that is where we differ the ramp up speed.

If need be the company will utilize every bit of this TA up to a few months out. They will then pull the trigger and furlough into what the need 12-24 months out at a cost minimal to them. After a displacement bid but everyone is in place so it won’t really matter.

you think a few months matters to them liking the TA trigger but it doesn’t. They have everything g where they need it to be. Going forward via old UPA was exactly what they said (we will be smaller). We just paid for that transition.

Originally Posted by Dogbelch

Absolutely spot on! Especially the part about us paying for it.

Originally Posted by UALManager

Ok, the whiskey is a flowin and it's time for some more fun.

It is human nature to contradict as a first response. If I say I think Jay Cutler was a horrible quarterback and a d!ck in real like, many of you are just compelled to say, "well if you look back and think about it he was ok during blah blah blah"

If I say Cutler was a good quarterback and a nice guy. Well I would never say that, but you get the idea.

So maybe all of the things I said before were just to get you primed up and defending things I wanted you to defend. Maybe, I want you divided. Ok, totally shifintg gears now. Call me UALManager#2- my split personality. I don't want you to take our money. What would be the number one reason for the charade? We totally win in 1 case.

You vote down your TA. You know why? we win in the actual next contract. The TA is fluff. A distracting. We don't want you to vote yes. It's not in our best interests.

But alas, You guys will lose and you don't even know why you'll lose because you aren't management, don't have team and teams of analysts and computing power, and don't spend every minute at work trying to win.

Do you not think we don't run scenarios constantly or keep data on you? Build models, optimize wording to achieve our goals? Strategically violate the contract at times and places to see your response? We learned it from some of you you actually - Fence Check!

Why do we win in the next contract? Our data tells us how much stronger we are in bargaining with the top 5-7000 personalities than we are with keeping you all. We run scenarios all the time. Go and look at what Kirby spent his life doing academically. The guy is a master at this. How do we collect this data? Easy. Ever had a contractual expense denied until you fought it? Ever been scheduled for something incorrectly, time and time again. Did you fight it or call your union? Ever have your pay messed up, and seek help, or maybe just say "you know what, it's not worth it this time." Ever wonder why this stuff doesn't ever get fixed? Not one of you ever ever ever ever on any of these sites says anything about data collection and AI. So you don't have the faintest idea what game is even being played, which is still far off from even starting to play, which is far off from winning. So stop trying to outsmart us.

Do you think we're not counting how many of you publicly state your ignorance using your own names and specific adopted positions on the internet? We're using it all. Every last word. Every single time someone makes a comment on what they would and would not do, and the value they assign to it. Every time someone is going to vote yes or no, and why. What they'd give u. That info is ours forever if it hits the net for just a microsecond. We collate it. Build a history, build projections and test them. We refine our models. Assign levels of confidence to thousands of outcome predictions. Then we use grandad's fancy commodore 64, to spit out neat graphs and charts to tell us who you guys really are demographically, and how you'd probably vote on lines of text you've never even seen. You'd be amazed at how well it works, and the confidence levels it runs at. In fact, the commodore has gotten better over the years, and now with some neat new AI that fortune 100 companies can afford, it even tells us how to modify legal language to optimize our outcome. Guess who got a degree in mathematical optimization, and was balls at it?

It's like a car company running the cost-benefit data on whether or not to recall a non-spec bolt in a car, and they've been doing that for decades. Think Moneyball with Brad Pitt, except SK would make Jonah Hill's smarty character look like...ummmm real life Jonah Hill. I don't know he doesn't seem so smart. Do you think we're not doing that? C'mon man (Joe Biden quote) It's moneyball!!!!!! We're an f'in fortune 100 company, not the A's. We've got the best Jonah Hill in the entire f'in industry, possibly the best Jonah Hill that can also be a CEO in the entire f'in world. That's rare to have just one.

So we put our new software in the C-64 and typed Load "Screw over the Pilots",8,1 (nerd reference beware) and you know what it said?

Don't furlough pilots. That's dumb. We're scraping the bottom of the barrel on hiring, and need them tremendously. Hire more. Hire the best. Hire even not the best. Hire anyone that is the least bit safe, plus some other protected category things I won't say because I don't want to get you really spun up.

Then Covid happened, and we ran it again. and again, and again. The C-64 changed it's mind a trillion times, but lately it tells us one thing important. You don't need x thousands of pilots for x years.

That we could figure out for ourselves. But it also found out one big giant blood diamond of a surprise.

It says that the top x thousand of the pilots have characteristics that will make them vote in certain ways that are highly, highly beneficial for us in the event we toss the contract in the trash and go for a new permanent one.

The computer seems to think you top level guys are not so "together." Ya got a few scabs. I didn't need my C-64 to know how those guys vote. You old guys seem to have one characteristic the computer likes for us. You think you know a lot by just being you, and not looking at much.

So the computer is really good with its new AI. The old computer would've just said "ok, now with covid, furlough x thousand pilots not based on cost savings necessarily, but because this x thousand is the exact demographic of voters we need on this many thousands of lines of contract to optimize our position.

But our new software is amaaaaazeballs. It says, no the old computer is an idiot. don't trust that old boomer computer. "ok, boomer computer!"

It says, don't JUST furlough the pilots. Get them to vote to furlough themselves, and then shaft them. New Millenial computer which is way smarter than boomer computer says that our strength in negotiating on all fronts with your most junior 5000 pilots gone is roughly 10% better (sounds low but that's HUGE). With you guys voting yourselves a "no" to this, and then us furloughing 5000, our bargaining power goes up 18% because 3 years down the road, x% of you will blame y% and it'll be easier to divide you yet again.

The only thing you can do to fight our C-64? I'll tell you because you can't and won't do it.
1.Shut the hell up. Ha! You can't. That's why I'll tell you step 1. You're still going to get on the net and tell us exactly how you're going to vote and why. Thank you so much. Bro, they pay people to try and get this data, but you give it to us for free. Have you ever gone to a mall, and seen the pople standing around with the stupid clipboards? It's a whole industry. Thanks. I didn't even have to give you a free sample of Manchu Wok to get your data.
2. You know what. I'm not going to tell you how to beat our C-64. I have 3 steps that could help. I have them and you don't. You wouldn't follow them anyway, and you can guess.
3. You don't realize this, but hear me when I say this. "we are playing chess, and you are playing checkers". And none of you realize that. None of you.
4. Don't fight the new computer anyway. It sits in a cooled room, and I bought a little fake man-bun from the wig store, and taped it on top of the big giant of the computer screen since we are millenial brothers in arms. THe old C-64 computer is sad. Ok that's irrelevant. I just wanted to share it with you.

But it's fun watching you old pilots trying to figure out how to manage the company from where you sit, without having the simplest idea about how anything remotely works. I like watching you fight with each other, especially when you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. And also when you call each other names and just use emotion. Or the one guys who was like "Just give us all 2500 shares, and maybe we can think about it." What a joker. I really think he was serious though.

I was snarky about the screw over pilots thing though. The program we are really running is "how to be the best, bad-a$$ company, leading industry, market sharing with the best-paid employees, and awesome bonuses for UALManager" but the only thing you understand is "how to screw over pilots" so I translated.

This is fun, you're going to be mad, but as much as you hate me you like looking behind our curtain, peeking up our skirt, and I don't think anyone else is telling you this stuff. So which UALManager am I, #1 or #2. I think I make a good argument both ways.

Originally Posted by duvie

Great, another one betting on 50% demand, yet the company deciding to carry almost double the pilots it needs to simply keep the TA intact…

Would you guys like to come play cards? You won’t mind putting down some serious money, since you have some foresight that’s unavailable to the rest of us ;-)

Originally Posted by bottoms up

I use it as reference...ok that pretty much spells out until the new year. Now you are left with 5-6 months. Do you honestly think a vaccine will not only be made but mass produced in that amount of time That will allow testing worldwide, opening of countries and a rebound of not o my travel/business demand but more importantly revenue in 6 short months?

Originally Posted by duvie

If your decision is based on 50% demand next September and the company keeping 35% extra staffing for many months after September ‘21, I’ll leave you to it...

Originally Posted by Big5

Which makes me wonder what I’m missing here and especially the rush to get this TA approved. A vaccine will be rolled out very soon. That’s a certainty. It’s almost as if we’re rushing to vote this TA in before a vaccine(s) begin restoring The public’s confidence. Loads and revenue will rebound. I personally don’t see the company furloughing 3900. Others do. Who’s correct? I unfortunately feel and suspect this TA is a fait accompli.

Originally Posted by Big5

Which makes me wonder what I’m missing here and especially the rush to get this TA approved. A vaccine will be rolled out very soon. That’s a certainty. It’s almost as if we’re rushing to vote this TA in before a vaccine(s) begin restoring The public’s confidence. Loads and revenue will rebound. I personally don’t see the company furloughing 3900. Others do. Who’s correct? I unfortunately feel and suspect this TA is a fait accompli.

Originally Posted by Sniper66

C-64 will face the A bomb sooner or later with this mentality
ger over your self Joker
yes Joker , how many times you watch that movie

Originally Posted by Sniper66

C-64 will face the A bomb sooner or later with this mentality
ger over your self Joker
yes Joker , how many times you watch that movie