pipe

After 2 yrs.............maybe.

Pipe

duvie

although outspoken, you don’t seem quite as entrenched as some. instead of just saying “don’t gut the contract” about a somewhat limited TA that is both temporary and has many triggers to terminate completely, would you mind painting a few scenarios and comparing the TA versus our current contract in those environments for us?

maybe demand at 60% next summer, demand at 45% next summer. The company choosing to furlough 2007, the company choosing to furlough more… Etc.

duvie

specifically, I do not see a scenario where demand is below 67 1/2% i.e. full pay for tops two thirds (and in their old seats no less), and we have not furloughed more than 2007, thus terminating the LOA.

how will the company be able to carry all those extra pilots if revenue is so depressed?

Big5

I don’t know but how’s our competition managing this? None of the other big 4 have plans to furlough 1/2 as many pilots. Why are we the exception?

BrianHackett

Our company assisted by our union is better at using fear as a motivator so therefore 3900 big scary number. I have no doubt it could eventually get to that point but our current contract was doing what it was intended and making the process slow and costly. It’s not about demand right now it’s about demand next summer and the following summer which no one can predict.

duvie

if it’s OK with you, I call Southwest the outlier here. But do you feel confident that you know what Mr. Parker and Mr. Bastian are planning for staffing? There is a very big difference between public posturing and actual planing.

dmeg13021

I predict that if this does not pass, the company will furlough 2007 pilots in Nov-Dec. That number is not random. At most, they can furlough 2850 (theoretically) before January without more WARN letters, and even then the training backlog prevents the “pounce” strategy we’ve heard so much about. By then we’ll know about CARES 2 and the election. If there’s no significant recovery, all 2850 are gone with the TA in June and the company saved millions on payroll in the interim.

We are placing much more importance on this TA than the company is. They are not going to pin all their hopes and dreams on a bunch of pilots voting on an agreement, and they will not implement “scorched earth” in retribution. They are trying to get us to pay their bill first, and if that doesn’t work, they’ll adjust the numbers and keep as many extra pilots on the payroll as necessary to “pounce”.

An uncertain future is scary. I’m not particularly excited about the furlough notice on my nightstand. But I have been spending way more time fixing my resume and log books, pinging old contacts, and getting my financials in order than posting on here, and I suggest all the bottom 1/3 do the same instead of hoping to change somebody’s mind.

Big5

If anyone is public posturing it would be UAL. I’ll take the actual number of WARN notices as a somewhat sign of actual planning. How many of those have gone out? Not 3900.

duvie

I wish I had your optimism. I don’t think the rebound will be linear (IE once businesses and individuals think it’s socially acceptable to travel Things will come back more quickly), but I don’t think the real increase will come soon enough to give the company reason not to furlough deep.

Andy

I'll call it on CARES 2. Dead.

The focus in DC has shifted to RBG's seat. So much so that Pelosi's threatening impeachments (yes, plural - not just Trump, also Barr). Given the highly toxic DC environment, there won't be any legislation that gets through Congress before the election, and probably none during the lame duck session.

I am not expressing a political opinion about either side of the issue, just stating the near certain outcome of this in terms of getting legislation passed.