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Old 05-18-2022 | 11:04 AM
  #311  
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Originally Posted by Beewatcher2
I'm historically a "no" voter but reading the tea leaves I would say the perfect time to lock in a contract is right before the coming recession. I doubt the other airlines will get contracts this summer but hopefully we get the "me too" clause as insurance.
When Scotty was on CNBC the other day grinning from ear to ear, he slipped in that fuel costs were up $10 Billion year over year made me cringe. That's a problem for profitability.

I can't argue with your logic, especially with the financial markets going lower and the Fed just starting to tighten along with Quantitative Tightening.
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Old 05-18-2022 | 11:09 AM
  #312  
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Originally Posted by Andy
When Scotty was on CNBC the other day grinning from ear to ear, he slipped in that fuel costs were up $10 Billion year over year made me cringe. That's a problem for profitability.

I can't argue with your logic, especially with the financial markets going lower and the Fed just starting to tighten along with Quantitative Tightening.
Year over year, United is flying double the ASM's and have consumed nearly twice as much fuel.

Fuel costs should be up.

Costs don't matter when you generate enough revenue to overcome the costs. This isn't the GFC, yet. Don't jump headfirst into a yes vote unless the contract merits it.
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Old 05-18-2022 | 11:22 AM
  #313  
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From: guppy CA
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Originally Posted by EAFF95
Year over year, United is flying double the ASM's and have consumed nearly twice as much fuel.

Fuel costs should be up.

Costs don't matter when you generate enough revenue to overcome the costs. This isn't the GFC, yet. Don't jump headfirst into a yes vote unless the contract merits it.
I'll read it and then decide. All of the rumors out there look like bovine excrement.
But I'll also weigh the economic landscape, which is deteriorating daily.

As for fuel costs, United filed an 8-K dated Maym16 with an update on Q2. The new fuel cost estimate should freak anyone out. It went from $3.43/gal to $4.02/gal.
I don't know if this link will work: https://ir.united.com/static-files/8...9-9614c0d331b6
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Old 05-18-2022 | 11:59 AM
  #314  
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Originally Posted by Andy
I'll read it and then decide. All of the rumors out there look like bovine excrement.
But I'll also weigh the economic landscape, which is deteriorating daily.

As for fuel costs, United filed an 8-K dated Maym16 with an update on Q2. The new fuel cost estimate should freak anyone out. It went from $3.43/gal to $4.02/gal.
I don't know if this link will work: https://ir.united.com/static-files/8...9-9614c0d331b6
In the same document though, revenue increases proportionally resulting in the same estimated operating margin of 10%. Like I said, it's not a big deal if the costs increase are met with a consummate revenue increase.

What I would be worried about is if people become so pinched for cash in the near future that United is not able to offset fuel/labor costs though increased fares. That would be like the recessions of the past we are familiar with. Fingers crossed, and good luck with the AIP.
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Old 05-18-2022 | 12:05 PM
  #315  
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First class DH’s are gone going forward minus the long flights as they were prior to Covid .

The first class DH was a LOA Covid thing IMO that was signed into place (temporarily) knowing that once the economy comes back they would want those seats back .


would love to be wrong .
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Old 05-18-2022 | 12:46 PM
  #316  
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Originally Posted by rightside02
First class DH’s are gone going forward minus the long flights as they were prior to Covid .

The first class DH was a LOA Covid thing IMO that was signed into place (temporarily) knowing that once the economy comes back they would want those seats back .


would love to be wrong .
Wasn’t the FC DH thing a permanent gain?
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Old 05-18-2022 | 12:49 PM
  #317  
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From: guppy CA
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Originally Posted by EAFF95
In the same document though, revenue increases proportionally resulting in the same estimated operating margin of 10%. Like I said, it's not a big deal if the costs increase are met with a consummate revenue increase.

What I would be worried about is if people become so pinched for cash in the near future that United is not able to offset fuel/labor costs though increased fares. That would be like the recessions of the past we are familiar with. Fingers crossed, and good luck with the AIP.
So if the economic environment continues to deteriorate, which would you expect to decline faster - TRASM or fuel prices?
We've got a while until there's a TA, but I wouldn't dismiss Beewatcher2's post.
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Old 05-18-2022 | 12:54 PM
  #318  
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Originally Posted by DashTrash
Wasn’t the FC DH thing a permanent gain?
Permanent under the current UPA. We’ll have to wait and see what is in the TA to find out if it’s still there.
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Old 05-18-2022 | 12:56 PM
  #319  
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Originally Posted by Hedley
Permanent under the current UPA. We’ll have to wait and see what is in the TA to find out if it’s still there.
Very true!!!
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Old 05-18-2022 | 01:03 PM
  #320  
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Here’s that latest rumor:

2 year contact
5% DOS
Retro to from DOS 31 Dec 2021 (5%)
5% after a year
5% on year two (15% total, below inflation)

Some reserve work rule improvements to disincentivize SC/FSB and global rolling to RDO/FDO

Big carve out for TK and LCAs.

No other significant changes.
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