This is where the claim is confusing. Anyone going through upgrade training is no longer on probation. Failure to make it though upgrade, unless they really demonstrated general gross incompetence, would just be sent back to the right seat. Not completely let go from the company.

 

I have no idea if there is any truth to those numbers. I have heard that there are NHs being sent home in large numbers, but just rumor mill stuff.

 

Are they really going home in large numbers, or just in slightly higher numbers than what we were accustomed to when we hired much more experienced pilots? Our program is pretty easy if you put in the work, but if someone has multiple repeats at TK and then needs 60+ hours of OE, they probably shouldn't be working here.

 

The junior pilot on the July 2023 seniority list is seniority number 15978. Of the 5000 juniormost pilots on the July 2023 list 4952 are still showing as active on the March 24 roster!!!! So, we lost 48 of the bottom 5000 that were here as of last July. That is less than 1% over the course of the last 8 months

Of the 1423 hired since the last seniority list 1385 are still on the list. That is 2.67%

That brings the total to 1.33% attrition over 8 months of the bottom 6423 pilots!!



So, I call BS

 

To add on to this I looked up the March 2021 vacancy bid and it had 10200 active. The most recent bid that closed last month had 14700 active. I looked up my seniority number (from a screen shot I took in April of 2020) and since then I have moved up almost exactly 2000 numbers. 1200 through PVSL and another 800 retirements. So 4500 plus 800 retirements gets us to 5300 or roughly 900 pilots of the 6200. Some of the remaining 900 are working in various positions in the company, out on long term leave, mil leave, etc.

no doubt a couple of 100 have moved on for a CJO at a different airline because of a better QOL but definitely not 2200. And of course anytime you hire historical numbers you will have some people let go but I would believe that number to be less then 100. Which is very high since before Covid during my first 7 years it was probably around 10.

 

Or it’s because historically people didn’t have the options they have now, offers from multiple places. People still take first class available and then adjust/leave for other carriers. We
Gain just as many from other places as we lose to other places

 

It could be the exact same percent as the historical norm. It might only be a “big number” because we’re doing a lot of hiring. Like I said, though, just a rumor that I heard without an actual digit.

 

it would be interesting to get an actual number what percentage of people bust upgrade or wash out as a new hire today vs years past. My guess is that our percentage today is only slightly higher but that it seems high due to the unprecedented numbers that we're running through the system.