Investor call and fleet speculation
01-19-2017, 09:47 AM
#32
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: A320 Cap
Posts: 2,282
Originally Posted by GoCats67
I think the "lift deficit" is for the summer of 2018. My Math says:
Minus 21 747s
Minus 10 777 A's (reconfiguring from intl config to Hawaii/domestic)
Plus 14 777-300s
Plus 5 787s (Jan, Feb, Aug, Dec, Dec)
So, even with the 777-300s be used more hours per day than the 747s, that can't make up for a 12 airplane net decrease on the widebody Intl side.
The numbers are even worse if you consider that 16 of those 19 deliveries will actually be here by this summer, so all the flying the 747s are doing this summer will have to be covered by a combination of only 2 787s coming in December or==and by dropping flying somewhere to free up an airplane (or many airplanes). So something will have to change to make the summer of 2018 work. That something is either more metal, or less routes.
the 787s that are coming in December complete our current firm orders (35 total), but we do have something like 50 options, so I am not sure what that could translate to. then we could also easily get some more 777-300s by the summer of 2018. If you look at the production list:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...eD0/edit#gid=5
you can see that it shows nothing but United and Unknown customers as there listed production slots. So, there is plenty of capacity that Boeing is using to finish out the 777-300 line that hasn't been spoken for yet. If we need another 10 by summer of 2018, I think we could get them on whatever schedule we wanted.
Minus 21 747s
Minus 10 777 A's (reconfiguring from intl config to Hawaii/domestic)
Plus 14 777-300s
Plus 5 787s (Jan, Feb, Aug, Dec, Dec)
So, even with the 777-300s be used more hours per day than the 747s, that can't make up for a 12 airplane net decrease on the widebody Intl side.
The numbers are even worse if you consider that 16 of those 19 deliveries will actually be here by this summer, so all the flying the 747s are doing this summer will have to be covered by a combination of only 2 787s coming in December or==and by dropping flying somewhere to free up an airplane (or many airplanes). So something will have to change to make the summer of 2018 work. That something is either more metal, or less routes.
the 787s that are coming in December complete our current firm orders (35 total), but we do have something like 50 options, so I am not sure what that could translate to. then we could also easily get some more 777-300s by the summer of 2018. If you look at the production list:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...eD0/edit#gid=5
you can see that it shows nothing but United and Unknown customers as there listed production slots. So, there is plenty of capacity that Boeing is using to finish out the 777-300 line that hasn't been spoken for yet. If we need another 10 by summer of 2018, I think we could get them on whatever schedule we wanted.
01-19-2017, 11:50 AM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 373
United swapped a few 787for 777. I believe the total firm orders for 787 is 49. After 2017 I believe we have 15 to be delivered. I believe we have a few 787 due in 18 (although I cannot find a source for delivery dates) and of course if we keep it the 350s start in 18. So I "think" lift wise they could handle it but like Most things on the internet this is just my guess.
Also I am hopeful that the fleet review will done soon (almost has to be done soon because the window of opportunity to change from -1000 to-900 on the 350' or an order swap is closing quickly. Also I hope we hear some good news on the SNB front.
Also I am hopeful that the fleet review will done soon (almost has to be done soon because the window of opportunity to change from -1000 to-900 on the 350' or an order swap is closing quickly. Also I hope we hear some good news on the SNB front.
01-19-2017, 01:19 PM
#34
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: A320 Cap
Posts: 2,282
Originally Posted by 82spukram
United swapped a few 787for 777. I believe the total firm orders for 787 is 49. After 2017 I believe we have 15 to be delivered. I believe we have a few 787 due in 18 (although I cannot find a source for delivery dates) and of course if we keep it the 350s start in 18. So I "think" lift wise they could handle it but like Most things on the internet this is just my guess.
Also I am hopeful that the fleet review will done soon (almost has to be done soon because the window of opportunity to change from -1000 to-900 on the 350' or an order swap is closing quickly. Also I hope we hear some good news on the SNB front.
Also I am hopeful that the fleet review will done soon (almost has to be done soon because the window of opportunity to change from -1000 to-900 on the 350' or an order swap is closing quickly. Also I hope we hear some good news on the SNB front.
01-20-2017, 01:25 AM
#35
Production Test Pilot
Joined APC: May 2013
Position: Production Test Pilot, Boeing
Posts: 97
More to the story
United targets rapid completion for fleet review
18 JANUARY, 2017 SOURCE: FLIGHTGLOBAL PRO BY: EDWARD RUSSELL WASHINGTON DC
United Airlines continues to evaluate its fleet needs and orderbook, following decisions to defer 61 Boeing 737 deliveries and park its Boeing 747 fleet.
“Our fleet review is a work in progress and we will update you later this year,” says Andrew Levy, chief financial officer of the Chicago-based carrier, during a quarterly earnings call today.
His comments did little to quell questions about the future of United’s order for 35 Airbus A350-1000s, as well as the possibility of additional Boeing 777-300ER orders.
The fleet review, which covers United’s narrowbody, widebody and regional fleets, was launched last year following the restructuring of its senior leadership team that August.
The first move was to defer indefinitely 61 of 65 737-700 deliveries and convert them to the Max in November. The remaining four aircraft were converted to the 737-800 due this year.
The conversion and deferral raised questions on how United will fill the gap in its fleet between 76-seat regional jets and 118-seat 737-700s, especially with the former fleet capped at 255 aircraft under the scope clause with its pilots.
However, the pilots accord allows United to add up to 35 more 76-seat regional jets to its feeder fleet if it adds a new narrowbody, including either the Bombardier CSeries or Embraer 190, to its mainline fleet.
Executives have said previously that improved operational reliability and the restructuring the carrier's domestic schedules will allow it to increase utilisation of existing aircraft.
This month, United announced that it would retire its 20 remaining 747-400s by the fourth quarter, up to a year earlier than planned.
The carrier will “essentially backfill” the 747s with the 14 777-300ERs, two of which are already in its fleet, it expects by the middle of the year, says Levy. System capacity and routes will remain unchanged, despite the six aircraft net reduction.
“Other than the 747 plans, we have no retirement plans for the rest of the [mainline] fleet,” he says but adds that this could change when the fleet review is complete.
In terms of regional aircraft, United is working on what the “optimal number” of up to 50-seat regional jets is for its fleet, says Levy. Its latest fleet plan shows 207 Bombardier CRJ200s, and Embraer ERJ-135s and ERJ-145s by the end of 2017.
Executives have previously outlined plans for a 50-seat regional jet fleet of as few as 100 aircraft by 2019.
United has firm orders for four 737-800s, one 737-900ER, 104 737 Max 8 and 9s, four Boeing 787-9s and 14 787-10s, in addition to the A350 and 777 orders, the Flight Fleets Analyzer shows.
United targets rapid completion for fleet review
18 JANUARY, 2017 SOURCE: FLIGHTGLOBAL PRO BY: EDWARD RUSSELL WASHINGTON DC
United Airlines continues to evaluate its fleet needs and orderbook, following decisions to defer 61 Boeing 737 deliveries and park its Boeing 747 fleet.
“Our fleet review is a work in progress and we will update you later this year,” says Andrew Levy, chief financial officer of the Chicago-based carrier, during a quarterly earnings call today.
His comments did little to quell questions about the future of United’s order for 35 Airbus A350-1000s, as well as the possibility of additional Boeing 777-300ER orders.
The fleet review, which covers United’s narrowbody, widebody and regional fleets, was launched last year following the restructuring of its senior leadership team that August.
The first move was to defer indefinitely 61 of 65 737-700 deliveries and convert them to the Max in November. The remaining four aircraft were converted to the 737-800 due this year.
The conversion and deferral raised questions on how United will fill the gap in its fleet between 76-seat regional jets and 118-seat 737-700s, especially with the former fleet capped at 255 aircraft under the scope clause with its pilots.
However, the pilots accord allows United to add up to 35 more 76-seat regional jets to its feeder fleet if it adds a new narrowbody, including either the Bombardier CSeries or Embraer 190, to its mainline fleet.
Executives have said previously that improved operational reliability and the restructuring the carrier's domestic schedules will allow it to increase utilisation of existing aircraft.
This month, United announced that it would retire its 20 remaining 747-400s by the fourth quarter, up to a year earlier than planned.
The carrier will “essentially backfill” the 747s with the 14 777-300ERs, two of which are already in its fleet, it expects by the middle of the year, says Levy. System capacity and routes will remain unchanged, despite the six aircraft net reduction.
“Other than the 747 plans, we have no retirement plans for the rest of the [mainline] fleet,” he says but adds that this could change when the fleet review is complete.
In terms of regional aircraft, United is working on what the “optimal number” of up to 50-seat regional jets is for its fleet, says Levy. Its latest fleet plan shows 207 Bombardier CRJ200s, and Embraer ERJ-135s and ERJ-145s by the end of 2017.
Executives have previously outlined plans for a 50-seat regional jet fleet of as few as 100 aircraft by 2019.
United has firm orders for four 737-800s, one 737-900ER, 104 737 Max 8 and 9s, four Boeing 787-9s and 14 787-10s, in addition to the A350 and 777 orders, the Flight Fleets Analyzer shows.
01-20-2017, 01:51 AM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2010
Position: Schempp-Hirth
Posts: 417
. SKIFT TAKE
Haywood was a big hire for United several months ago, but apparently it did not work out. That’s OK, as President Scott Kirby should continue to do a fine job running the airline’s commercial team.
— Brian Sumers
Julia Haywood, United Airlines’ chief commercial officer since August, who joined the company at the insistence of CEO Oscar Munoz, has left to return to the Boston Consulting Group, where she had been a partner and managing director.
Haywood’s hire was announced on August 16, and she was to oversee United’s sales, network planning, pricing and revenue management departments, taking over from Jim Compton, United’s former chief revenue officer. Previously, she had worked with Munoz as a consultant for United on similar matters.
Two weeks after Haywood joined, United hired President Scott Kirby from American, giving him a similar portfolio. In recent weeks, sources at United have said, Kirby has taken a hands-on approach toward both improving revenue management and culling United’s network.
Publicly, Kirby has recommended United focus more on domestic flying in the near future, and less on new international routes. He has also at times criticized United’s former revenue management approach, saying the airline can improve at using technology to ensure it can match its ticket prices to demand.
United said Haywood will return to Boston Consulting Group. In her last stint there, she helped more than a dozen airlines with commercial strategy and execution, network planning and revenue growth, according to her biography.
“I, along with Oscar and the entire senior leadership team, appreciate the contributions Julia has made during this transformative period for our airline, and we wish her the very best,” Kirby said in a statement. “We will continue to focus on building out the commercial team to achieve our goal of becoming the world’s best airline.”
https://skift.com/2017/01/19/uniteds-chief-commericial-officer-leaves-after-five-months-on-the-job/
Haywood was a big hire for United several months ago, but apparently it did not work out. That’s OK, as President Scott Kirby should continue to do a fine job running the airline’s commercial team.
— Brian Sumers
Julia Haywood, United Airlines’ chief commercial officer since August, who joined the company at the insistence of CEO Oscar Munoz, has left to return to the Boston Consulting Group, where she had been a partner and managing director.
Haywood’s hire was announced on August 16, and she was to oversee United’s sales, network planning, pricing and revenue management departments, taking over from Jim Compton, United’s former chief revenue officer. Previously, she had worked with Munoz as a consultant for United on similar matters.
Two weeks after Haywood joined, United hired President Scott Kirby from American, giving him a similar portfolio. In recent weeks, sources at United have said, Kirby has taken a hands-on approach toward both improving revenue management and culling United’s network.
Publicly, Kirby has recommended United focus more on domestic flying in the near future, and less on new international routes. He has also at times criticized United’s former revenue management approach, saying the airline can improve at using technology to ensure it can match its ticket prices to demand.
United said Haywood will return to Boston Consulting Group. In her last stint there, she helped more than a dozen airlines with commercial strategy and execution, network planning and revenue growth, according to her biography.
“I, along with Oscar and the entire senior leadership team, appreciate the contributions Julia has made during this transformative period for our airline, and we wish her the very best,” Kirby said in a statement. “We will continue to focus on building out the commercial team to achieve our goal of becoming the world’s best airline.”
https://skift.com/2017/01/19/uniteds-chief-commericial-officer-leaves-after-five-months-on-the-job/
01-20-2017, 04:10 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Posts: 783
The <50 seat product is just simply infuriating to even a well seasoned traveler. They have to do something to address the poor performance, aging aircraft, and poor customer experience associated with that flying. You can't have the same flight out of iad-ewr cancel every single day. The customer experience on a 73 or airbus isn't amazing but it is just so much better in comparison.
01-20-2017, 08:14 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Posts: 859
Originally Posted by Aquaticus
The <50 seat product is just simply infuriating to even a well seasoned traveler. They have to do something to address the poor performance, aging aircraft, and poor customer experience associated with that flying. You can't have the same flight out of iad-ewr cancel every single day. The customer experience on a 73 or airbus isn't amazing but it is just so much better in comparison.
01-20-2017, 08:21 AM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: 737 Captain
Posts: 855
Originally Posted by ReadyRsv
Coming from the regional world, United wasn't concerned with anything but being cheap. It showed.
Agreed.
Also UAL makes those hub cancellation decisions.
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01-20-2017, 08:23 AM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 648
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13958950/2/outspoken-united-airlines-president-concedes-forecast-failure-and-challenges-delta.html
"Kirby said United's first quarter is always weaker than Delta's and American's (AAL) because United does not have a Southeast hub, while Delta has Atlanta and American has Charlotte, enabling them to carry more traffic to winter destinations in Florida and the Caribbean."
I'm not sure this means we'll open up a southeastern hub like MCO, but at least the void has caught managements attention. Maybe the gradual guppy build up at IAD is an attempt to make it a quasi-southeastern hub eventually. There is definitely enough room at Dulles to reallocate and/or acquire resources from other underperforming hubs and routes.
Or who knows maybe it is time to mimic Delta and migrate away from some of our high cost airports and towards low cost hubs.
"Kirby said United's first quarter is always weaker than Delta's and American's (AAL) because United does not have a Southeast hub, while Delta has Atlanta and American has Charlotte, enabling them to carry more traffic to winter destinations in Florida and the Caribbean."
I'm not sure this means we'll open up a southeastern hub like MCO, but at least the void has caught managements attention. Maybe the gradual guppy build up at IAD is an attempt to make it a quasi-southeastern hub eventually. There is definitely enough room at Dulles to reallocate and/or acquire resources from other underperforming hubs and routes.
Or who knows maybe it is time to mimic Delta and migrate away from some of our high cost airports and towards low cost hubs.
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