Please do.

-Giant Pilot

 

As long as its not the same deal as Challenge Air

 

Based on the IPA Seniority Calculator, I'm a 2007 hire with 326 numbers to the junior Capt.

There were at least 150 (possibly 170, not motivated to look) hired after me in 2007. That would make a 2014 hire more like 400+ numbers from upgrade.

We'll see how it goes from here. They still haven't recovered from this last bid.

 

I'm 100ish behind Cactus, it's about 450 to a 2014 hire from the plug.

 

According to ST's current seniority list, junior CPT is 1802 (ANC M1F) and first guy from June 14' class is at 2288. 486 numbers. The guy who mentioned the 300-something to me factored in his guesstimate of bypassers. His argument was that the percentage of bypassers increases as seniority decreases. I verified those numbers but got strikingly different results:

Next 100 senior to 1802 = 11 cpts, 89% bypass
Next 100 = 15 captains, 85% bypass
And so on = 25, 75%
34, 66%
49, 51%

Applying that in reverse from 1802 and keeping a fixed 90% bypass rate:

CPT is 48.6 #'s from 1st 2014 newhire and 88.7 numbers from newest guys on property (2689total-1802 = 887 numbers from list plug)*.1 = 88.7). Even though it's just a limited model and in no way will it predict future bid outcomes, the data does hint at how places like DAL and FX (and presumably us too?) can have such quick upgrade times.

Other observations poolies may find interesting:

List is just an RCH from 2700.
401 newhires since hiring resumed in 2014, previous class was NOV 2007.
222 newhires in 2017 so far.
In last 2 classes, every domicile and every a/c was awarded. Seems there may be 3-4 month waves where they alternate between heavy amounts of domestic and then international (M1F & 74) awards.
Last class in 2014 was August, 2015 had a September class, 2016 was back to August. 2017?? 78 more guys to reach 300.

 

Junior cappy has run generally about 65%, and when the MOAB closed in January the Junior CA was (then) 75%.

I have a hard time believing bypassing 98-01 hires on domestic fleets holding preferred vacation and week on/off or three week-on day flying with commercial DHs will en masse bid to the bottom of the list in ANC where the growth airframes are (allegedly) going to be based.

Of course with each vacancy there will be bypassers that decide to pull the trigger on upgrade, but I suspect if we see another bid with 200+ CA positions upgrade will drop into 2007 hires.

If the company were to announce something like a SDF 747 domicile, all bets would be off though

 

Hahaha... no joke! The SDF MD11 would Loose 15-20% of its captains.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

come on....

 

Yeah, I don't think any Gen2.0 will see an upgrade any earlier than 7 years at the absolute earliest on property unless there are some quick developements with those remaining a/c options. My numbers did show that it is possible one could trickle down though...

 

Enhanced Open Time Opportunities for Pay Period 17-08

Beginning with pay period 17-08, UPS will invoke Article 1.A.4. of the contract to allow crewmembers to pick up open time on vacation days (VAC). The Company will also invoke Article 13.K.11. for pay period 17-08, to allow crewmembers to be paid open time on top of guarantee. This change in policy was reviewed with the IPA's Executive Board in response to the current training surge. The combination of growth and elevated training events caused by the acquisition of the 747-8, contractual changes, attrition, and other network changes, is stretching our operational limits to cover flights and ensure timely service to our customers.

Earlier this year we reported to you that we planned to hire about 300 new pilots in 2017. We now expect that the number could be as high as 325. Based on current trends, hiring for 2018 looks to be similar. Thank you for your support during these exciting times of growth for our airline.
Last Update: Jul 11, 2017.