Barley

I show the most junior awarded upgrade being 64 numbers from the most senior September 2013 hire. Granted that doesn't relfect the bid preference of everyone, but I think we are going to see a lot senior DEN FOs upgrading once they think they can be senior captains in a new base...

Yosemite Sam

Wow things are worse than I thought. Captains are jumping ship.

Good luck with that and good luck on the table with Indigo. You're going to need it.

Aero1900

We've had one captain jump ship, and he took a furlough recall. The others have hit 65 and retired. Sam, you need to move on...

Barley, the junior captain from the last award is about 60 senior to the senior fo in the September 13 new hire class. A ton of Denver FOs do not have Chicago captain bids in, hence he only missed by a few names. The east coast base is really going to shake things up


The

sulkair

Follow me here guys.

As a way of finding a "historical norm" I sampled two seniority lists, one from 2011 and one from early 2014.

On both lists, the junior CA spot reached ~54% of the way down the list.

2011... 360/673 = .534

2014... 380/711 = .534

• All things being equal, to me, this means once things settle down, and the bases are well established the Jr. CA will be at 54% down the list.

• So by the end of this year when our pilot group is ~1000, in a perfect world, the Jr Ca would be #540

• Also at the end of this year, the senior September 2013 new-hire, factoring in 2/mo attrition, will be #587, only 47 numbers short of CA.

• HOWEVER - because things are so 'up-in-the-air' right now, there will be a number of Senior Denver FO's that will not upgrade right away, thereby altering the 54% standard.

In otherwords it only takes 47 Denver FOs, who in a perfect world would have upgraded, to decide to wait, and presto the 9-2013 newhire is in Upgrade class by end of this year. ( Just 27 months from hiring on. )

And worse case, if no Denver FOs wait... Just stick with the 54% standard: (9/2013 hire #587) / .54 = 1087. And our pilot group should be 1087 by mid 2016. So worse case it's a 33 month upgrade for the 9/2013 newhire.

Aero1900

That all sounds very reasonable except that the vast majority of our pilot group is committed to living in the Denver area, and as Chicago grows bigger, there will be more and more FOs bypassing upgrade so they don't have to move or commute. Your historical look back is great, but an east coast base and a much larger Chicago base really throws off the balance. Captain upgrades will go more junior than your math suggests

Harry Canyon

Well, hey, at least he 'doesn't have anything derogatory to say about us'.

Yosemite Sam

OMG really?

Those statements were directed at those that chose to insult instead of having a discussion of the facts and not the pilot group as a whole. Please don't lower yourself to their level.

Nice try.

sulkair

Aero - I totally agree with you!!! That is why I included both scenarios. I picked the end of 2015 as a 'viewing point' for simplicity. I guess what you're saying is that even the 27 month estimate will be beaten. Cool man!

I just think it's helpful to look at speculative projections against the backdrop of WORSE CASE scenarios. It helps fortify the projection when you clearly notice it isn't really that far off from worse-case.

Jughead135

D.L. (to AA, if memory serves), or was it someone else?

Just curious to know if D.L. took the recall or not (after having said he "never" would, didn't want to leave F9, etc.)....

Harry Canyon

Sam,

You said: "I have nothing against the pilots at F9 nor have I said anything derogatory towards them." Followed immediately by something derogatory... "So grow up children".

You accused him of: "Still with petty childish dribble and insults...", followed by the petty, childish insults:

"You my friend are delusional and in denial...PATHETIC!!...Grow up...."


You said: "Those statements were directed at those that chose to insult instead of having a discussion of the facts..."

And your 'discusssion of the facts' began like this:

"F9 is a dead end. The only thing it's good for is maybe interview experience...My opinion."


So when you call someone a 'child', or 'junior', or 'delusional', or PATHETIC!!', they are statements and examples of the proper way to 'have a discussion'.

But when other people do it, they are insults, and they are arguing.

Got it. Thanks for educating all of us down here on the 'lower levels' of intelligence.

(My apologies to the pilots interested in coming here (like Sam was once, I mean twice) for the thread drift. I can't resist a troll AND a hypocrite.)