5/2020 bid
12-12-2019 | 08:44 AM
#71
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 248
Likes: 0
From: Left Seat
Why? That would be the costliest move. No VX guy showed up in the first ~420 positions on the current list. Almost all the senior 737 group in SEA would bid the Bus and create a huge transition cost. That’s on top of having to train all the VX guys onto the Boeing anyway. Cheapest would be to let LAX take care of itself because both fleets are already there, and open a SFO 737 base. That would be bid mostly by people currently already in SFO. The last thing AS wants are Boeing guys bidding Bus when they go single fleet. The latest bid is a good example of reducing Bus CAs by 20. Like MEA said, the next bid can also have another reduction with vacancies on the Boeing in LA and other bases, while not having to proffer the reduced Bus spots.
In any case, the worse part about this is forcing guys to make bid decisions without any fleet or drawdown plan. How can pilots make long term plans without knowing the final fleet? A classic example is guys that bid from LA Airbus to LA Boeing because they wanted the SNA flying, and then all of a sudden as of January the Boeing SNA was greatly eliminated and a large increase on the Airbus side. How were the guys who bid Boeing for SNA supposed to know that? They find out in training. Not a good scenario. People want to and need to make long term plans when it comes to base and fleet bidding, so we must know the fleet plan and final drawdown schedule ASAP so we can all bid accordingly.
In any case, the worse part about this is forcing guys to make bid decisions without any fleet or drawdown plan. How can pilots make long term plans without knowing the final fleet? A classic example is guys that bid from LA Airbus to LA Boeing because they wanted the SNA flying, and then all of a sudden as of January the Boeing SNA was greatly eliminated and a large increase on the Airbus side. How were the guys who bid Boeing for SNA supposed to know that? They find out in training. Not a good scenario. People want to and need to make long term plans when it comes to base and fleet bidding, so we must know the fleet plan and final drawdown schedule ASAP so we can all bid accordingly.
12-12-2019 | 08:48 AM
#72
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 248
Likes: 0
From: Left Seat
Then if that's the case, the removal of the Airbus from the fleet would come faster than originally anticipated? There's more departures out of SEA on the Airbus now than there is in SFO. What is the point if the Airbus is going to remain in the fleet for many more years?
12-12-2019 | 08:57 AM
#73
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 44
Likes: 0
Alaska is the pretty girl at the dance right now. Low debt and underpaid labor...makes an acquisition likely, given the current governmental state of affairs. The T-mobile / Sprint merger that is at DOJ right now is the test, if that is allowed then all bets are off. Virgin was purchased because AA was going to acquire AS...not for gate space or anything else.
12-12-2019 | 08:58 AM
#74
Respek
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,915
Likes: 61
Then if that's the case, the removal of the Airbus from the fleet would come faster than originally anticipated? There's more departures out of SEA on the Airbus now than there is in SFO. What is the point if the Airbus is going to remain in the fleet for many more years?
12-12-2019 | 11:28 AM
#75
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 9,348
Likes: 330
Exactly.
And even as a lineholder, you’re defacto reserve. How many trips start off with 1 leg to SEA and the rest of the day off? Bzzzzzzzz ACARs message. FO plz call scheduling upon landing. I go to the hotel, he gets tagged a SEA-DEN-SEA and now the 18 hr layover is down to min rest 10 hrs for him. How many people get their schedule changed going into/out of SEA? A lot. That, and overnighting many in SEA is still far cheaper than opening up a SEA base for the Bus. If we go single fleet, then opening a new Bus base is not a cost effective solution.
And even as a lineholder, you’re defacto reserve. How many trips start off with 1 leg to SEA and the rest of the day off? Bzzzzzzzz ACARs message. FO plz call scheduling upon landing. I go to the hotel, he gets tagged a SEA-DEN-SEA and now the 18 hr layover is down to min rest 10 hrs for him. How many people get their schedule changed going into/out of SEA? A lot. That, and overnighting many in SEA is still far cheaper than opening up a SEA base for the Bus. If we go single fleet, then opening a new Bus base is not a cost effective solution.
12-13-2019 | 03:54 PM
#76
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 134
Likes: 0
I think you have nothing to be afraid of. Growth is coming, I think exciting growth. The only slowing this down is Boeing at this point. Large order will be announced soon, single fleet. AS will take an expedited delivery schedule. More displacements from the Airbus, fall of 2020. 250-350 a year hiring, indefinitely moving forward.
Is that they literally state on page 12/39 that “place an aircraft order that would fund growth and allow us to retire smaller less efficient aircraft which would improve both our ability to generate additional revenue and lower unit costs.”
Your growth will be see you later A319,320,737-800 here fly this max9 instead for the same rate.
Also regarding near term growth Brad states “organic growth and merger/acquisition” (p32/39).
Reference the seniority list off today’s bid, place has supposedly hired 300 this year and the seniority list hasn’t even grown by a hundred!
12-13-2019 | 04:10 PM
#78
SDQ Base Chief
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 6,056
Likes: 34
From: 320 CA
What you guys are missing is when they say “growth” per the q3 conference call found here https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-t...-call-tra.aspx
Is that they literally state on page 12/39 that “place an aircraft order that would fund growth and allow us to retire smaller less efficient aircraft which would improve both our ability to generate additional revenue and lower unit costs.”
Your growth will be see you later A319,320,737-800 here fly this max9 instead for the same rate.
Also regarding near term growth Brad states “organic growth and merger/acquisition” (p32/39).
Reference the seniority list off today’s bid, place has supposedly hired 300 this year and the seniority list hasn’t even grown by a hundred!
Is that they literally state on page 12/39 that “place an aircraft order that would fund growth and allow us to retire smaller less efficient aircraft which would improve both our ability to generate additional revenue and lower unit costs.”
Your growth will be see you later A319,320,737-800 here fly this max9 instead for the same rate.
Also regarding near term growth Brad states “organic growth and merger/acquisition” (p32/39).
Reference the seniority list off today’s bid, place has supposedly hired 300 this year and the seniority list hasn’t even grown by a hundred!
Joseph DeNardi -- Stifel -- Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then Brad I try and ask you this question every now and then, I'll ask it again. Just given your experience to-date with the Virgin transaction and turning that deal into value for shareholders, how successful do you think you've been and kind of in the context of your balance sheet, nearing a point where you'd be in a position to do something. Does M&A look more or less appealing now than it did before the Virgin deal? Thank you.
Brad Tilden -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks very much, Joe. Yes, thanks for giving us a chance to talk about this. We, at that time -- if you go back to when we considered this, it was when we announced it was April, 2016. I think we felt like, we had an amazing economic engine, a great brand. We're really proud of our culture in the way people take care of customers, we felt really positive about the long-term prospects for the industry.
But, we did feel like industry conditions were such that we just needed more real estate, and we wanted to have strength beyond Alaska, Seattle and Portland. So, that was the idea behind the Virgin merger. It, as you guys know, you go through life, you learn stuff. When you do stuff, you learn stuff and it was -- it was a lot of work.
But, I think everyone here is feeling optimistic, we're feeling good that we're getting through it, and I think we really feel that we have materially enhanced sort of the cash producing sort of capability of this economic engine. We've enhanced career of security for our people in doing that. As you mentioned, I'm extraordinarily proud that we borrowed $2 billion to do it.
You guys know, our people did it with no investment banks with no, nothing like that, they just went to the banks and borrowed $2 billion on their own and we're going to pay three quarters of it off, in three months' time, so we're really proud of the team. As we look at doing more, you know I just think, my own view of the world is it's a combination of organic growth and M&A.
We've done amazing with organic growth. I'll just tell you -- and different people around this table may feel differently. But, as I look at the next few years, I sort of see the biggest opportunity us growing organically, pushing -- taking what we are proud of what we feel like we do well, and pushing it organically into markets where we're already strong.
Got it. That's helpful. And then Brad I try and ask you this question every now and then, I'll ask it again. Just given your experience to-date with the Virgin transaction and turning that deal into value for shareholders, how successful do you think you've been and kind of in the context of your balance sheet, nearing a point where you'd be in a position to do something. Does M&A look more or less appealing now than it did before the Virgin deal? Thank you.
Brad Tilden -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks very much, Joe. Yes, thanks for giving us a chance to talk about this. We, at that time -- if you go back to when we considered this, it was when we announced it was April, 2016. I think we felt like, we had an amazing economic engine, a great brand. We're really proud of our culture in the way people take care of customers, we felt really positive about the long-term prospects for the industry.
But, we did feel like industry conditions were such that we just needed more real estate, and we wanted to have strength beyond Alaska, Seattle and Portland. So, that was the idea behind the Virgin merger. It, as you guys know, you go through life, you learn stuff. When you do stuff, you learn stuff and it was -- it was a lot of work.
But, I think everyone here is feeling optimistic, we're feeling good that we're getting through it, and I think we really feel that we have materially enhanced sort of the cash producing sort of capability of this economic engine. We've enhanced career of security for our people in doing that. As you mentioned, I'm extraordinarily proud that we borrowed $2 billion to do it.
You guys know, our people did it with no investment banks with no, nothing like that, they just went to the banks and borrowed $2 billion on their own and we're going to pay three quarters of it off, in three months' time, so we're really proud of the team. As we look at doing more, you know I just think, my own view of the world is it's a combination of organic growth and M&A.
We've done amazing with organic growth. I'll just tell you -- and different people around this table may feel differently. But, as I look at the next few years, I sort of see the biggest opportunity us growing organically, pushing -- taking what we are proud of what we feel like we do well, and pushing it organically into markets where we're already strong.
12-13-2019 | 05:32 PM
#79
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2015
Posts: 114
Likes: 0
From: a cushy one with a forward facing window
On the bid award it states pilots on the list as of dec 2 3076
Estimated as of May 1st 2020 2932.
Woohoo look at that growth 🤯
My current FO has two job offers and is trying to decide which to take. Sad state of affairs at this company.
Estimated as of May 1st 2020 2932.
Woohoo look at that growth 🤯
My current FO has two job offers and is trying to decide which to take. Sad state of affairs at this company.
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