Does an expedited delivery schedule also mean an expedited Airbus return schedule, sooner than lease due dates?

 

I’m hoping for a pony

My cynicism level: updating my apps for when Air Group announces the 190s to Horizon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I would guess that if Alaska goes single fleet, the Airbus will be relocated to SEA and die there. Assuming (big assumption) that we go single fleet.

 

I have never seen one fleet plan that ever had the Airbus is SEA in any form other then TDY, which was already shot down.

 

Why? That would be the costliest move. No VX guy showed up in the first ~420 positions on the current list. Almost all the senior 737 group in SEA would bid the Bus and create a huge transition cost. That’s on top of having to train all the VX guys onto the Boeing anyway. Cheapest would be to let LAX take care of itself because both fleets are already there, and open a SFO 737 base. That would be bid mostly by people currently already in SFO. The last thing AS wants are Boeing guys bidding Bus when they go single fleet. The latest bid is a good example of reducing Bus CAs by 20. Like MEA said, the next bid can also have another reduction with vacancies on the Boeing in LA and other bases, while not having to proffer the reduced Bus spots.


In any case, the worse part about this is forcing guys to make bid decisions without any fleet or drawdown plan. How can pilots make long term plans without knowing the final fleet? A classic example is guys that bid from LA Airbus to LA Boeing because they wanted the SNA flying, and then all of a sudden as of January the Boeing SNA was greatly eliminated and a large increase on the Airbus side. How were the guys who bid Boeing for SNA supposed to know that? They find out in training. Not a good scenario. People want to and need to make long term plans when it comes to base and fleet bidding, so we must know the fleet plan and final drawdown schedule ASAP so we can all bid accordingly.

 

None of that matters to those making the decisions on fleet plans and where to shift flying. My uneducated guess with rumor/opinion that’s not worth anything was that the NEO’s will be a stop gap for Max 9 arrivals until that gets completely sorted. There’s a very real possibility that Max’s don’t completely 1 for 1 the Airbus fleet and that a smaller sub fleet of 190 or 195’s pick up the West Coast hops kinda like a West Coast JetBlue. I also don’t see them going to Horizon although it’s always a possibility, in the end it’s not likely to be any real fleet growth. Ask yourself this where can we go that isn’t jam packed already? I know it’s great to see airlines ordering 100 airplanes but I don’t see where they’re going to put them so until they’re all on property with no returns I’m skeptical. Likewise where are we going to expand to? LAX SFO SEA are all packed, short of maybe adding a couple more flights a day to popular city pairs I don’t see anything drastic coming here and this picture of massive growth that MEA paints leaves me scratching my head.

 

Alaska literally has no where to grow out of. They have completely destroyed the prospect of California as the SFO shrinking continue. Seattle? Yeah right, where? more bus gates? Portland? UMM no, gains nothing that already doesn't exist in Seattle.

Alaska showed their intention of growth the minute they shut down JFK.

Seattle airlines will continue to shrink back to the shell that it once was and be slowly stomped into submission by Delta until AK has to make another knee jerk reaction and acquire/merge with someone else....then they will ruin that again if they are in charge of the plan.


FACT: airbuses are being returned with no replacement aircraft coming, im not a math scientist but this is net loss and that equals shrinking.

FACT: Management is obviously quite interested in E190s as evidenced by a second parading of it and still no scope clause to prevent it.

FACT: A weak and apathetic pilot group, largely based in Seattle that will likely tank the 2020 negotiations.


AND YOU THINK THERE IS NOTHING TO BE AFRAID OF AS AN ALASKA MAINLINE PILOT??!?!?!?!??!!

 

You said you left after 5 years. Weren’t you hired Dec 2016.

The negotiating committee are a bunch of good guys both Boeing and Airbus who are fighting hard for the entire pilot group. And the combined 3,000+ are not a “weak and apathetic” pilot group.

 

No I wasn't hired then.. and for the friends I still have there, I certainly hope youre right about the pilot group...but my impression of the larger mass of apathetic silence was far more deafening than the roar of the engaged

 

Meanwhile all that premium keeps getting picked up...

One thing is for certain: the group will get the contract that the group deserves


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk