Please stop with the FUD. You are management and we don’t care what you say. You have outed yourself now give it up.

 

You don’t actually believe this do you?

 

I don’t know if they will or not, I’d bet pretty strongly that Spirit, Frontier, and Allegiant do not furlough, considering they are bringing most if not all of their planes back on line soon. Southwest I think is unlikely to ultimately furlough as well, JetBlue and AA not as sure, but time will tell. No inside info, just talking to friends at some of those places.

 

We were hiring last week? Hmm I must have missed that. I saw where we are going to train up a class we brought on property because we did not want to cancel with three days notice. We were talking about the fact that despite you knowing everything about the airline industry you don’t realize AMR ceased to exist in 2013. Will we furlough possible and would not surprise me in the least. That said we have mitigated hundreds of furloughs and we have way more retirements then anyone else. It was interesting that for the first time last month they actually denied some early outs. It amazes me everyone on these boards is an expert on AA.

 

AA is interesting right now because their behavior appears different than the other two. To me it's slightly alarming that the big three management teams are not coming to similar conclusions... different Ouija Boards.

 

I finally through in the towel on even trying to predict the future but AA seems to have maybe found the softest landing. We are still looking at being a 20 plus percent smaller airline and we are progressing to that goal. The difference being we were truly understaffed of the MAX had been allowed to fly again we could not have handled it. We have been understaffed for a while. Add to aggressive buy outs and and organic retirements and we may escape with 1000 or less furloughs. I’d be surprised if we furloughed no one but I have been wrong before. The other positive for AA was we have by far and away the least exposure to Europe and Asia and a strong domestic presence. That can account for us cutting say five percent less then DAL or UAL.

 

Man, your posts are one tough read. Yup, you got me, AMR is no longer the ticker, it’s AAL. You see well run airlines keep their same tickers because they don’t go bankrupt. The new AAL has been mismanaged for six years, as its management team tried desperately to create shareholder equity out of three boat anchors. I am confident AAL will be 30-40% smaller summer of 2021. Hold on to your domestic powerhouse ideas, keep telling yourself that. Close your eyes and just believe, Santa Clause is real! AAL will never loose money again. You are leveraged for bankruptcy, you need the fairytale, the other two are actually viable and have something to protect, even if 90% of the economists are right. AAL summer of 2021 will have somewhere between 8,800-9800 pilots. Some will take the early outs, some will retire, some will be furloughed. You are right though, your staffing from 2019 and future retirements are a huge win to the pilot group over there.

 

So here’s the thing. Yes we have a lot of debt most of it isn’t due until the second part of the decade giving us plenty of time. The debt we do have is all in airplanes and assets we can barrow against we have reflected while money was cheap. As to your 8000-9000 pilots comment your wrong by out about 2-3k pilots. We know this because our company has already released our displacement bid. We are A little over 1300 over staffed. As to our early retirements so far it has been 800. 616 walked on the first bid. The biggest failing of education is people still think government and corporate balance sheets are not like your personal balance sheets. As for the never lose money statement yes it was a stupid comment but they company had been planning to survive another 9/11 and no one saw this coming. You can’t plan to not lose money on this situation. I still expect us to furlough but hopefully you AS intel is a lot better then you AA I tell

 

So here is the thing, if I were you, I would be reciting the same nonsense, hoping somehow it were true. You most certainly have a debt problem, but right now it’s a revenue problem. The debt is the iceberg in your future, the lack of revenue is sinking your boat right now. I have a very good friend at AAL, high level stuff, he is looking for a job. He said, AAL will be 30-40% smaller, guaranteed. He told me multiple times, he doesn’t think AAL can make it, he said, he just can’t see how. No joke, not a pilot, smart dude, successful dude, he is trying to get out, he has an awesome job there. I know AAL has published its one and final displacement bid, there will be no more, that is it. Sure, whatever you say, I am sure you are right. Stop back around Christmas, tell me how clueless I am.
Do you know who else knows this, LUV... Look at there capacity shift, they have the capital, and they are coming!

 

MEA, OTZ, Brad and Ben. The 4 horsemen of the airline apocalypse...


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