Not much of a surprise when our load factor is just above 40% most days.

 

I think most of us know this won’t the final say on “No Pilots will be furloughed” either...
I’ll be happy to extend my EIL to 24 months!

 

Oh that’s good though. The Chicken Of Katzebue will have a reason to slander our union and demoralize the junior pilots on anonymous message board. Fingers crossed that works out.


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I have a feeling many will have an opportunity to extend their leaves. The “recovery” isn’t going as expected.

 

You just said a whole bunch of stuff that makes only sense to you, english Dude, english...

 

Im really proud of the work the Union has done, but in my opinion continuing to say the furlough threat is over is a bit irresponsible, in my opinion the chances that we furlough late this year or early next are very high, hopefully not but there is no recovery happening at the moment, and I don’t see anything to make me think it will start anytime soon.

 

A vaccine is on it’s way, that should help with demand. If not there’s always furlough mitigation.

 

Would not count on a “vaccine”....Not a real one anyway. Wondering now if we will actually see the EIL program stand

 

I agree wouldn’t be surprised to see them cancel the current bid, reneg on the EILs and furlough.

 

Dr Fauci commented on vaccines earlier this week. He said to expect a vaccine that is around 60% effective. The vaccine will not eliminate coronavirus but it will be a tool to slow and control it. 60% effective is equal to the effectivity of the flu shot. I still get the flu sometimes even with the vaccine.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/07/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-chances-of-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html

Bill Gates, who has become something of an infectious disease expert via his foundation's work, predicts that coronavirus will be over in the rich countries by the end of 2021.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/bill-gates-says-coronavirus-will-end-for-the-rich-world-by-end-of-2021/

Where does that put air t travel demand? There's no way we return to 2019 levels until covid is completely stamped out. And, the economy in general is in the toilet. Entire sectors are in freefall. Even if there was a perfect vaccine released tomorrow it would take the economy months or maybe a year to sort itself out. I'd guess we don't return to 2019 levels for three to five years or maybe even longer.

Then there's the uncertainty of future airline aid packages. American airlines could be in bankruptcy by next spring or the government could reanimate them via cares 3.0 and create a Frankenstein that destroys yields for the natural survivors. Both those outcomes are horrible but that's a choice that congress will have to make next year.