busbusbaby

They are averaging that level because we are limiting flights to 60%. The demand is slowly rising, Sunday had 800000 plus screened. As people get fed up with being stuck at home it will increase. And if masks weren’t so political it would be even faster.

flysnoopy76

I wAs wondering if that factored in the blocked middle seats, thanks for the clarification.

9mikemike

So now to reward the “hardest working”FA’s at the company we have a new plan. We need to shrink the SFO and LAX FA bases by 400 total. Instead of following their contract and putting out a realignment bid and reducing those two bases and placing additions in ANC, PDX and SEA they are going to furlough the bottom 400 while denying 400 requested leaves. It gets better, after they furlough these FA’s they are going to start recalling them as needed but to vacancies of the companies choice. Neat little contractual side step....The Alaska Airlines FA’s are the only reason we have won awards, have the strongest Mileage Plan in the business etc etc....As if saving on FA salaries and so on will make any difference. Classic Angle Lake Evil at work...Don’t think for a minute they wont be coming for us soon...

DashAviator

How can they do that? I don't know anything about the Flight Attendant contract, but this would seem to be a blatant violation. What is to stop Alaska management from doing the same thing to the pilot group?

ExperimentalAB

Just the pilots.

ShyGuy

I’m not sure I follow. What do you mean place additions in ANC, PDX, and SEA? If they want a pure furlough it would be 100% reductions and 0% vacancies. They could do -200 in SF and -200 in LA. Are the bottom 400 FAs all in SF and LA? If they are, I don’t see how the end result would be any different.


On the pilot side, the whole EIL was outside the contract thinking. We had no contractual provision (and apparently this doesn’t count as furlough mitigation). That said, demand seems to have plateaued out at about 25-30% of pre-Covid levels. I don’t see how we can move forward without huge drastic changes. And a vaccine is no guarantee of getting back to normal. 1/3 Americans polled said they aren’t going to take it. Fauci concerned that 2/3 will not be effective for herd immunity. Vaccine or no vaccine, we are hosed for a long time to come.


Luckily we have 2 fleets. FAs are dual trained, we can’t be. That’s another reason their outcome is different.

9mikemike

They are being furloughed so that after all the seniors are awarded various leaves they can be force-based in to SEA, PDX and ANC and that will balance staffing needs if and when the demand returns

9mikemike

The”cash burn zero” plan and the EO/REIL/EIL plan relied on a return to 50% pax/revenue by the end of December. The “Anglers” are now coming up with a plan to survive in the new reality of permanent change. CH 11 is prominent in those plans. Pension plan/ lump sum termination/ Airbus fleet termination/ Airport lease obligation restructuring/ 737 MAX obligation restructuring/ non-negotiated CBA restructuring.......I don’t think the “survive plan” cares about market share.

Costanza

The recent financial filling shows 3.8 Billion in cash and an expected cash burn rate in August of under 125 Million. This means the company has about 20 months at current burn rates before running out of money. Obviously things will have to turn around or basically all the airlines will be bankrupt. American is in the worst shape of the big airlines. They haven't filed yet. I'll start worrying about Chapter 11 if the first dominos start to fall. Also, the stock is at $37 so wall street does not believe a bankruptcy is imminent at ALK. Will be interesting to see where demand is in summer of 2021. If it hasn't turned around by then it's not going to be pretty.

ShyGuy

You don't declare BK when you have 0 cash on hand. I believe the number is about 1 billion remaining. That is when declare BK.



9mike is correct. The assumption was 50% by December and 80% by next summer. It's starting to look very unlikely that's happening. Even with a vaccine you have 1 in 3 Americans saying they ain't gonna take it. Fauci says 2/3 vaccinated (and that already assumes 100% effectiveness which it won't be), is still not going to be enough to achieve herd immunity. I hate to be the sky is falling type person but if there was ever one scenario where the sky is falling and we're all hosed, this would be it.