Originally Posted by 9mikemike

Going to have to agree to disagree with ya Kotz. Not sure when we get done sliding down the icy scree that we will have dug in enough that we wont slip into the crevasse. By the way, are you joining me for a 24 month EIL as you promised. Still think the Anglers will panic and pull the plug on the EIL program....We are only safe from furlough on a 90 day rolling calendar

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1

I have heard no new talk of furlough, AS management seems very happy with our current program. Our numbers are slowly coming in line with expectations, although slightly behind. I keep hearing CASH-Z by Q1 attainable. I have seen summer 2022 fleet projected 214, 227, and 252. Optimism is starting to build a little, I think many feel December will surprise. I know DP is in almost weekly contact with BT, having made multiple visits to Angle Lake. I was never a fan of DP, until I met him. I don’t know if this pandemic has humbled him, I would describe him as a gentleman, a really neat individual. I think there is a lot of potential there for us. I think a form of CARES 2 will happen. My personal opinion is the second 25 billion allocated for loans will become grants. I am pretty sure SFO is toast. I still don’t totally understand why, and have advocated for us keeping it. I still think single fleet will not happen tell 2024-25, unless we end up well bellow the expected recovery level. New enhanced lines for November will be tough to swallow for commuters, a non event for those who live in base. I still have to believe something is a foot with JetBlue... My guess would be next fall something drops.

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1

My vacation starts 10-1... Not near as noble as taking a leave with no pay, to save a life. 190k a year for nothing and total freedom, seems more on the selfish end of spectrum to me, I would like to think I did it to save a job.

Originally Posted by rickair7777

Can they do both? Furlough juniors, and keep seniors on EIL?

Originally Posted by PBone

Rick, as far as I can tell, they almost have to. I’m pretty sure I read in the LOA that they can’t call back incentive lines early if there is anyone furloughed, which would indicate it’s a possibility to have both EILs and furloughs simultaneously. If they needed to furlough, it wouldn’t make sense to recall a bunch of Captains and senior FOs (let’s call that the expensive end of the list) just so they can chop off even more of the bottom of the list (the least expensive pilots) to attain the correct staffing numbers.

Originally Posted by 9mikemike

The view from the top is now a long, slow, very sporadic trip back to where we once were...at least 2 years of significant overcapacity. They do not see the vaccine as a game changer. The entire premise of the EIL was to preserve capacity for a recovery in 2021. That target is steadily moving to the spring of 2024. I don’t think anyone in the bottom 1/3rd should get comfortable. And those of us with only the pension should not get comfortable either. Alaska Airlines does not care for the pilots, mechs, csa’s, f/a’s etc....Anyone that works in a union. The possibility that we right-size back to 2014 is not out of the question. EIL’s will all be recalled if that happens. The EIL program is causing a lot of heartburn with the top of the executive ranks right now.

Originally Posted by 9mikemike

The view from the top is now a long, slow, very sporadic trip back to where we once were...at least 2 years of significant overcapacity. They do not see the vaccine as a game changer. The entire premise of the EIL was to preserve capacity for a recovery in 2021. That target is steadily moving to the spring of 2024. I don’t think anyone in the bottom 1/3rd should get comfortable. And those of us with only the pension should not get comfortable either. Alaska Airlines does not care for the pilots, mechs, csa’s, f/a’s etc....Anyone that works in a union. The possibility that we right-size back to 2014 is not out of the question. EIL’s will all be recalled if that happens. The EIL program is causing a lot of heartburn with the top of the executive ranks right now.

Originally Posted by flysnoopy76

I agree, I’m still guessing that ultimately around 30% will be furloughed. The people that run this airline will not tolerate losing money by way of paying pilots to stay home for very long.

Originally Posted by rickair7777

They're probably torn between the agony of paying pilots to stay home and the very real possibility of SWA (or maybe even ULCC) swooping in and eating their lunch during a recovery. Nobody knows how quickly or steeply a recovery might occur. My guess is that any airline which can actually afford to will wait a few months and see how the vaccine thing plays out. Somewhat a game of chicken right now.