Originally Posted by OTZeagle1

Merger is done, it is what it is. Upper management now wishes they didn’t make that last call, easy to say looking backwards, knowing what the future held.
Future bookings are better by the day. Numbers I gave on fleet size are still good, validated today. MAX is coming, if things continue to progress over the next 6 months, I think we will take as many as 15 in 2021, 33 in 2022. That is the optimistic forecast, one that right now looks very achievable. I don’t get all the renewed furlough talk, I have heard only the opposite, bringing most everyone back early. I would still bet “Alaska Blue” is on our 18 month horizon. SFO is on borrowed time, if things spring back quickly, 24 month left. OneWorld looks like a big big deal for us moving forward. Exciting opportunities abound on this front.
That is a lot of PM’s, I haven’t checked them in a while... I will try to get back to everyone. Relax, things are better at Alaska then the vibe I am getting on here.

Originally Posted by ShyGuy

They already was an email that detailed SFO base future and the potential of a SEA 320 base tied to a fleet decision, right?

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1

Great question, insurance. Independent AS, works best as a single fleet. Max, is the easiest transition to that point. “Alaska Blue” would be well suited with 250 737, 210 320/321, and 30 A220’s on an approximate merger date. Deliveries out 5-7 years, would yield 350 737, 260 320/321, and 130 A220’s. AS keeping 30 A320’s does very little for that landscape one way or another. Going all 737 for AS provides flexibility in remaining independent if our two paths cannot be forged together as one. A side caveat, AS board is all about protecting shareholder equity, we are much more attractive to another suitor as a all 737 fleet.

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1

SFO at this point will not be a base once the 320 is gone.

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1

Great question, insurance. Independent AS, works best as a single fleet. Max, is the easiest transition to that point. “Alaska Blue” would be well suited with 250 737, 210 320/321, and 30 A220’s on an approximate merger date. Deliveries out 5-7 years, would yield 350 737, 260 320/321, and 130 A220’s. AS keeping 30 A320’s does very little for that landscape one way or another. Going all 737 for AS provides flexibility in remaining independent if our two paths cannot be forged together as one. A side caveat, AS board is all about protecting shareholder equity, we are much more attractive to another suitor as a all 737 fleet.

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1

So you laughed at my 252 in 2022, which was publicly validated today. Now you attack me for providing the current color I am seeing with regard to SFO. I thought we were about open information here? Yes, I believe SEA would capture the 321 fleet moving forward if we decided to keep the variant, which we are not doing by the way. Yes, SFO will be the base where the bus will die, in the all MAX world, 2023-2025 depending on the recovery. SFO at this point will not be a base once the 320 is gone.

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1

Great question, insurance. Independent AS, works best as a single fleet. Max, is the easiest transition to that point. “Alaska Blue” would be well suited with 250 737, 210 320/321, and 30 A220’s on an approximate merger date. Deliveries out 5-7 years, would yield 350 737, 260 320/321, and 130 A220’s. AS keeping 30 A320’s does very little for that landscape one way or another. Going all 737 for AS provides flexibility in remaining independent if our two paths cannot be forged together as one. A side caveat, AS board is all about protecting shareholder equity, we are much more attractive to another suitor as a all 737 fleet.