..... and continue to be a bit player until eventually they get swallowed up by someone not satisfied with being a bit player.

 

I am not so sure about the “swallowed up” part. We don’t really fit in very well with any of the current players. Probably just continue doing what we are doing. Stay strong, stay nimble, keep costs low, pay off debt. Getting past the stupidity of the chinaflue will certainly be a test

 

I'm not so confident. Solo bit players won't have a chair when the music stops and the Virgin America fiasco will prevent them from being aggressive when seeking dance partners.

That leaves few options, IMO.

 

Yup.

They need to grow organically (and aggressively) or merge. They're probably below the critical mass needed to compete long-term, they look a lot like legacy Airways if they go it alone and slow. The days of the "regional legacy" are long gone.

 

Why do you say that? While I find AS’ conservative nature annoying as an employee in a seniority based progression system. The model has proven to be quite resilient as of late.


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Their conservative nature has definitely been a good thing at times (this being one of those times) but I suspect they're a tad too small to thrive as independent PNW regional major in the long-term. Allegiant, Frontier, etc have their special business model niche, but AS's niche is hub-n-spoke legacy with regional feed (minus the widebodies)... in normal times, the other legacies can infringe on that (to say nothing of SWA) and will do so as a matter of course over time. Battle for Seattle? Saved by the bell. About the only thing Alaska has a lock is, well, Alaska... the others majors don't want to touch most of that with a 10' pole.

But I don't think they're idiots by any means, they know they have to grow, they're just torn between their conservative nature and the fairly obvious pressure not to stagnate or shrink... stagnation is the back side of the power curve in this industry.

 

Im not doubting or agreeing with you. Other then working for the company and being a moderator of the board, where are these ideas coming from?

 

A little business sense, and excellent SA.

 

With the airline business essentially”dead in the water” growth is no longer part of anyone’s plan. Labor Day 2024 will likely see the airline business back to 2019 levels. We will likely be single-fleet by that time. Paying down debt will be the focus so that we can survive the follow-on recession that will show up in 2026. Could be another lost decade in the making

 

This legacy "mega regional airline" survived every down turn and no one has a crystal ball. Is it luck, intelligence, perseverance, planning, etc? I tend to believe it's a little bit of everything. The common rumor always has been that American was going to buy Alaska Airlines. This rumor has been around well before my time. A crusty old captain once told me that our boys used to crew American's 727s. All this discussion about how an airline should be run is good for chit chat among labor groups but I'm pretty sure upper management could give two cents about what we think. All you smart pilots out there should put your name in the hat for that coveted CEO position. Oh hey, don't forget to fill out that employee survey while you are at it!