Strictly my observations over years in the industry (did have previous business management experience FWIW). Not claiming any prescience, just ideas subject to debate and discussion.

But a key data point... AS apparently bought VX in a panic bidding war to keep B6 out. So even management thought they were one merger (B6+VX) away from backed into a corner

 

Hindsight is 20/20. VX would have dissolved by now and Alaska would have saved $2.6 billion. Shoulda-woulda-coulda.

 

Or, jetblue would've bought VX. The combined airline would've had the highest quality product, a true nationwide network, a loyal (almost fanatical) customer base on both coasts, and operating costs competitive with alaska and southwest.

I'm a fan of Alaska's conservative model that tracks in parallel to growth rate of the Pacific Northwest. Alaska Airlines is a geography play and a regional play, it has more in common with The Washington State Ferry Service than Delta Airlines. However, I also believe that a VX B6 combo would've been a possible extinction event for Alaska, It would be like unleashing an invasive species in a secluded environment. Alaska can live and thrive with an international network cariier next door, a carrier that dies back every time there's a downturn, but an LCC that's appealing to the tech crowd would've rotted out Alaska similar to how an emrald ash borer beetle destroys forests.

 

While academic, VX would not have dissolved as it would have been acquired by Jetblue. You can debate the effect of the $2.5B price tag on Jetblue with the current circumstances.

Cheers - Rob.

 

VX saved AS's hide.
They had an option. AS didn't.

Just poking fun at my Legacy AS brethrens, though at least one of the three sentences above is a fact.

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True, Alaska was determined to win the bidding war against B6 since their lives depended on it, so they thought. I'm not so sure jetBlue would have paid >$2 billion for Virgin. Had jetBlue won the bid, they would be in a bigger world of hurt than Alaska.

 

It's all good brotha. Haven't been on this forum lately so I thought I'd waste some time on here. Who says COVID is all bad? Life is good-we still have a job!

 

True dat!...

 

More likely the B6 merger would have occured. Otherwise, VX would have been not long for the world after 01 Oct.

 

Merger is done, it is what it is. Upper management now wishes they didn’t make that last call, easy to say looking backwards, knowing what the future held.
Future bookings are better by the day. Numbers I gave on fleet size are still good, validated today. MAX is coming, if things continue to progress over the next 6 months, I think we will take as many as 15 in 2021, 33 in 2022. That is the optimistic forecast, one that right now looks very achievable. I don’t get all the renewed furlough talk, I have heard only the opposite, bringing most everyone back early. I would still bet “Alaska Blue” is on our 18 month horizon. SFO is on borrowed time, if things spring back quickly, 24 month left. OneWorld looks like a big big deal for us moving forward. Exciting opportunities abound on this front.
That is a lot of PM’s, I haven’t checked them in a while... I will try to get back to everyone. Relax, things are better at Alaska then the vibe I am getting on here.