Agree with all

 

Alaska was nervous enough about JB picking up VX that they stepped in and overpaid by a $Billion or so.

That tells me they have considered at least one scenario, and quite likely others, where it would be in their best interest to acquire another airline, irrespective of the cost.

The airline sector is currently ripe with the expectation of further consolidations, and AS could get left behind, if they are caught asleep at the wheel. If this current moment doesn't cause them to make a defensive, or an offensive move, I doubt anything else will.

 

I don't see AS being the acquirer unless it's small fish like Sun Country, Avelo, or Breeze. The problem is I cannot see AS being an acquirer AND agreeing to give up their AS name and brand. For that to disappear someone else will have to acquire AS. On this part of the argument, I agree with OTZ. They aren't going to willingly give up the AS name themselves by acquiring someone else.

 

They're having trouble hiring and training pilots fast enough, as well as acquiring airplanes as quickly as they would like. They recently announced that they will hire 10% less pilots than planned due to not being able to train them fast enough.

 

So if Alaska does in fact make a play for JetBlue, where does that leave the relationship with AA and Oneworld if AAG is successful?

 

If people claim they are hearing things about mergers, typically you can rest assured that what is out there as rumor isn’t going to happen.
I think things at Alaska have become so toxic, and with jetBlue, Spirit, and Frontier engaged in possible merger scenarios, people are clinging to the hope of any sort of change here.
Alaska just got done overspending for Virgin America and all that will be left is essentially that they eliminated a competitor, only to buy another larger Airbus airline as they finish eliminating the Airbus fleet that they have. In my opinion it’s ludicrous and wishful thinking.
Alaska still makes money but they are irrelevant on a national scale, and with what appears to be a total lack of leadership, combined with incredible arrogance they may find themselves in some trouble soon as other airlines grow and take an interest in their precious PNW.

 

Avelo or breeze would be worth acquiring just for the forced arbitration (and a few pilots)... I'm calling it Avelo: all guppy. But they better hurry, before the other majors set a higher industry-average bar for the arbitrator.

 

Probably whatever they want it to be. B6 isn't a member of the other globals, just has the relationship with AA... that segues into oneworld if desired.

 

I don't see Breeze or Avelo being worth acquiring. It doesn't solve the real issues here. Management knows this path with the pilot group isn't sustainable. Attrition is high and moral is low, and flights are still canceling by the dozens daily. Breeze doesn't have an aligning fleet, and neither have enough planes or pilots to solve anything. Simply forcing arbitration won't solve anything, in fact it will make our issues worse.

 

Do they think they can hunker down, stagnate or even shrink a bit, and wait out the pilot shortage? Perhaps hoping/planning for a recession, which is reasonably predicted for next year based on the Fed's interest rate movements. I'm no recession cryer just because it's been seven years, or 17, or whatever, but interest rates do matter.

That's not conventional wisdom in business, normally growth is king on wall street, but do they believe they have a secret sauce for that?

Conventional wisdom says they need to merge because they obviously can't manage the all-important growth fast enough to keep up with the rest of the industry and wall street. Doesn't take an MBA or professional economist to call that, just read the business section for a couple decades.