IMO, SWA can make a case that they should not be artificially restricted from expanding into the big three league.

Smaller carriers can argue that they should not be restricted from merging, and likely be doomed to be eventually crushed by the tyranny of economy of scale.

The usual suspects will make a show of opposing any M&A... For the People!

 

I got a hunch UAL and SK are about to test the waters…your probably right.

 

The regional part consists of 40 ERJs, which OO would be happy to buy... especially if they come with lifer CAs.

 

Well the odds on favorite has to be B6, I think our management would prefer to do nothing but they got caught with their pants down. UAL and SWA both have the capital to shape this period of consolidation in a way they feel benefits them the best. I think you will likely have an AS merger announcement in the next 3 weeks and then wait for a spoiler play.

 

If WN isn’t the first bidder I think they will play spoil apparently they gave ten billion in cash so they are looking hard at AS probably offer soon.

 

Disagree. B6 isn't a great fit; every other airline I can think of that would possibly be in play is a better fit with AS: F9, G4, SY, LUV, UAL (no particular order). None of those five airlines would have market concentration issues with DOJ if they merged with AS.

 

Unlikely. If they didn’t wouldn’t be approved anyway. From what I understand UAL is expanding in Europe and vacation destinations as Asia is still mostly a no go. The only benefit Seattle holds to any airline not named alaska airlines is a gateway to Asia. That is probably not even close to being on ual radar right now.

 

The problem with UAL's west coast bases is that after closing SEA, both LAX and SFO instantly became gate limited for UAL. I've spent a lot of hours on the LAX and SFO ramps waiting for gates to open since SEA closed.

 

AS BOD believes they need to be the #5 airline to remain relevant. F9, G4, SY would not achieve that.

AS/B6 are the most likely because there is actually a dialogue. I have heard the only musts for B6 are NY HQ, JetBlue branding, Reconfigured board elected CEO and EVP’s. That may be a bridge to far for AS. Those were the same holdups in 2015.

LUV and UAL can play or not play a hand. Either one could go after Alaska, JetBlue, or Spirit. AS could make a play for Spirit but I would put that at unlikely. AS also would likely need the pilots under a long term contract to be able to get the best capital rate to pull off any hostile move. Get your popcorn, it’s anyones guess. SK said he wants to be the largest airline in the world, I think he only gets there by buying Alaska, JetBlue, or Spirit. Southwest’s only play would be to protect their long term interests.

 

UAL or LUV is just fine with me. I just want a mgmt team that has a vision and nearly any have a better one than the current team.