I like what you did there

 

1) Yes. 2) yes it matters, all contracts are enforceable in the event of merger and successorship. Otherwise airline execs would just set up new holdings companies, “acquire” the old airline, and just dump the contracts. It would just turn into an airline holdings group shell game and decimate labor. But, the acquiring company has to abide by whatever the existing contracts stipulate, as well as facilitates negotiations for a JCBA (as stipulated by B6 CBA, not sure what AS CBA says). B6 CBA requires a JCBA be negotiated prior to any integration happening. I think about 4500 pilots at B6 wouldnt ratify any JCBA that allows RJs, so that could be an issue for Alaska management if they were the enduring leadership of a hypothetical merged AS/B6.

 

I think what our BOD wants trumps what our management wants.

 

All of you who think the government will stop any merger of carriers that will still end up being way smaller than the big four do not understand the DOJs role in review. The DOJ can contest these mergers to possibly have a judge put conditions or restrictions on them (think what AS had to divest in codeshares when buying VX), they cannot simply say no you cannot merge.

 

They wouldn't do it unless they knew they could. It wouldn't fail because of the DOJ.

 

I could see HAL merging with AAL.

 

Depends. Do you mean alaska operational management team? Seriously doubt that would be their first choice, they probably really like their cushy hometown gigs.

But ultimately it's not up to them, that's what the board is for. They may have decided it's time for a paradigm shift to keep shareholder value from stagnating long-term. If you try to read the tea leaves, top management behavior hints that something is up, and that's even been observed by outsiders (media). Golden parachutes would be used to retain top leadership who *know* that their jobs are being auctioned off... any golden parachutes lately?

From a management perspective, the best way to ensure their own long-term job security is to have a "captive board", that is one where all of the personalities are beholden to the operational management in one way or another, by friendship if nothing else. How captive is the AS board right now? Lots of locals boys and girls (the kind with MBA's from lower southeast tacoma community college) would hint at captive. BT's departure hints at maybe not so captive.


They would not. If there's any truth to B6 M&A rumors it's either a hostile move by AS, or a mutual merger discussion... until they get engaged and married, it's OK for B6 to date others to explore options. It's even been hypothesized that B6 would prefer AS, but they need to do *something* soon so they moved on NK... that will either make AS jealous (afraid) forcing to offer better terms or, failing that, B6 gets their merger and ups their weight class. If the let the NK/F9 thing get past V1, then one of their options is closed for good.

Three-way, no way. Any other combination might be possible. The Party will make some appropriate noises to appease the revolutionary masses, but it's going to be hard to just say no to a merger which doesn't get anywhere near the big-three in size... why should the gov guarantee that only AA/DL/UA get to enjoy that economy of scale. Yes different business models and route structures, but still. Also... do airlines make political contributions? I think they do. This is why.

B6+NK is still not a Pac NW or even west coast player... but it's one more player in the next higher weight class, who would likely encroach before too long.

If I were on the board, I'd be worried about getting outclassed by everybody else and eventual shrinkage and stock collapse.

A B6/AS merger would preserve what they have, open new horizons, and grant larger economy of scale. As well as moving up into a competitive weight class.

A sale to SWA would simply be cashing out the brand, culture, and HQ for a premium share price.

 

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WN struggles in HI? How so?

 

AS still wants a shot at brand survival ship. Our EVP’s would like to have the reigns of the new entity, and their vision is a SEA HQ company. Unsolicited Cash offer is their only way forward.

They need about 8B to pull this off… That’s a lot capital to raise.