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Alaska Air Hiring

Old 07-21-2018, 07:40 AM
  #3291  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
On the VX side early August 2012 DOH is the plug CA. I don’t know about lineholder, that changes every month with increase/decrease in flying hours and pilot leaves. For the remainder of the year the new 48 upgrades are all on Boeing’s. I think last time their most junior CA plug was a May 2013 hire. Lots of SEA FO bypassers.

The wild card is the SLI. Regardless if you’re hired now you’d be about 3,000 with only ~625 retirements in the next 10 yrs. You will be a FO longer than any of the other big 6 carriers.
This is assuming zero growth over those 10 years. Also, isn't SWA a 10+ year upgrade? I'd think that as long as AAG doesn't shrink the fleet, upgrades would continue at their current pace. Even 4% growth is still growth. All the 400's are gone and the Bus is here to stay until 2024 at the minimum, so all airframes from now till then are growth right? I was told in CQ that there will be 9-12 sims in SEA where the current Ops parking lot is. We currently only have 5 in there now. At least it sounds like they're beefing up the school house for more training and growth.
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Old 07-21-2018, 08:34 AM
  #3292  
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Originally Posted by Beta82
FWIW, Had a 787 FO in the jumpseat yesterday; he said he would be 87% in the most junior narrow body domicile as a captain. He was 19 years at United.
1999 DOH at United was bad. Probably furloughed twice in the lost decade. But that's not the case going forward. At Delta, in 19 years from 2019-2037 they retire 10,000 pilots out of their ~14,700. United retires a similar percentage of their 12,600ish pilots over those 19 years.
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Old 07-21-2018, 08:41 AM
  #3293  
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Originally Posted by KnockKnock
This is assuming zero growth over those 10 years. Also, isn't SWA a 10+ year upgrade? I'd think that as long as AAG doesn't shrink the fleet, upgrades would continue at their current pace. Even 4% growth is still growth. All the 400's are gone and the Bus is here to stay until 2024 at the minimum, so all airframes from now till then are growth right? I was told in CQ that there will be 9-12 sims in SEA where the current Ops parking lot is. We currently only have 5 in there now. At least it sounds like they're beefing up the school house for more training and growth.
Bus leases expire over a timeframe from 2019-2024. Didn't they say the 1 lease expiring in 2019 would not be renewed? The reality is until they announce an official fleet plan going forward, you won't know what the growth plan is for 3-5 years. If it switches back to all Boeings then how many planes are swapped out? Tere is no guarantee there is a net fleet growth. Growth to Alaska is seats. Taking a bunch of 737-900ERs and parking A319s/320s can still result in more seats with less total airframes.
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Old 07-21-2018, 09:22 AM
  #3294  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
Bus leases expire over a timeframe from 2019-2024. Didn't they say the 1 lease expiring in 2019 would not be renewed? The reality is until they announce an official fleet plan going forward, you won't know what the growth plan is for 3-5 years. If it switches back to all Boeings then how many planes are swapped out? Tere is no guarantee there is a net fleet growth. Growth to Alaska is seats. Taking a bunch of 737-900ERs and parking A319s/320s can still result in more seats with less total airframes.
I think the future is pretty bright either way if you’re very senior or very junior.

If you’re senior you’ve already decided where to live and are clearly pretty happy with the contract as is. No where to go but up.

If you’re really junior, you’re gonna have to options, stay here and see what happens with a good company, or get your butt in gear and get your stuff in at one of the actual major airlines. The boom is just now really firing up.

Middle of the pack..... Golden Handcuffs. Gonna have to decide (if offered) to you punt for better pastures or go to the mat for this contract. I’d plan on both and be ready to pull the trigger on either.

Hopefully after SLI the company will lay down another card in their hand.
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Old 07-21-2018, 09:27 AM
  #3295  
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Originally Posted by symbian simian
Just because I’ve seen it used both ways, do you mean he has 13% below him? I always think of being 1% as being at the top.
87% is reserve at United
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Old 07-21-2018, 09:59 AM
  #3296  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
Bus leases expire over a timeframe from 2019-2024. Didn't they say the 1 lease expiring in 2019 would not be renewed?
My instinct, coupled with experience, tell me that the Bus leases will not be renewed since AS has more 737s on order than they have Busses.

Growth to Alaska is seats. Taking a bunch of 737-900ERs and parking A319s/320s can still result in more seats with less total airframes.
Historically this is EXACTLY how AS "grows" the airline. They consider "growth" more RSMs not more airplanes.
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Old 07-21-2018, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Packrat
My instinct, coupled with experience, tell me that the Bus leases will not be renewed since AS has more 737s on order than they have busses.
Where do you get your information? My understanding is that there are somewhere around 40 orders for Boeings. 30 something max’s And 9 900s? There we be 70+ Airbuses before there is a reduction if leases expire. There are also 30 320 neos to cancel. This by my calculation is a loss of around 30 airframes total?

The “fleet planning guy” said we could possibly have around 500 airframes by 2024. Maybe we can expect 100s of 175s! After all Skywest does have 100s of 175 on order. Most west coast RJ service!
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Old 07-21-2018, 02:07 PM
  #3298  
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Hard to believe the airbus will stay beyond the lease terms, as mentioned one leaves next year, and given the fact they are barely maintaining them now I can’t imagine them keeping them or the 30 on order. They may take delivery of a handful of Boeings over the next couple years, but as far as “growth” that’ll be reserved for Skywest and Horizon.
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Old 07-21-2018, 04:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Beta82
There are also 30 320 neos to cancel. This by my calculation is a loss of around 30 airframes total?
You're joking, right? Virgin had 10 321 neos on order, took 4. 30 320 neos on order took ZERO.

Guess who the launch customer for the MD-90 was. Hint: ALASKA AIRLINES.

Now guess how many MD-90s showed up on the property. Hint: Zero.
Orders are easy to cancel. An old Navy CPO once told me, "Never believe the rumors of new aircraft until they show up on the ramp AND they turn over the maintenance logbooks."
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Old 07-21-2018, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Packrat
You're joking, right? Virgin had 10 321 neos on order, took 4. 30 320 neos on order took ZERO.

Guess who the launch customer for the MD-90 was. Hint: ALASKA AIRLINES.

Now guess how many MD-90s showed up on the property. Hint: Zero.
Orders are easy to cancel. An old Navy CPO once told me, "Never believe the rumors of new aircraft until they show up on the ramp AND they turn over the maintenance logbooks."
Sorry maybe I wasn’t clear. We will have 72 Airbus once the rest of the 321 neos are delivered. There are about 40 737 orders. This is a net loss of 30 mainline airframes if they dump the Airbus. That’s not including any 737 retirements there could be.

The 320 orders were just a side comment.

Is this current airframe plan incorrect? I think the number to cancel the Airbus orders is on the order of 15 million but don’t quote me.
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