All Bizniz

Thanks for that. Based on what I read, it seems they were in mediation for a little less than a year, before the impasse was declared, and the 30 day cooling period was started.

What is so unique about AS's situation that a similar thing couldn't occur, as opposed to mediation being forced to languish in purgatory by the NMB?

Management seems pretty confident that we won't be released. They must know something we don't...

Jetlikespeed

they may…… but they also just got caught with their pants down in April not being able to staff the airline. Their arrogance may be finally catching up with them

deraa

What are the average mins nowadays?

All Bizniz

Well, whatever it is, it seems like this is headed for an epic show down.

Someone's gonna have to blink first, but it appears that both sides are not intent on being the first.

ShyGuy

Not sure if you've looked but every airline stock is in the dumpster right now. This year has wiped off more than 7 trillion (with a T) out of the stock market.


https://www.cbs58.com/news/more-than...rket-this-year


Somehow, someone has set this expectation or the tone that voting yes to this strike authorization vote is going to get us released. Nothing could be further from the truth. Intro session in January, and what 3 sessions in and the NMB is going to declare an impasse? I don't see any release this year. I don't agree with OTZ much, but I do believe him when he says we're probably gonna get iced for 6 months.

Funny, because Frontier pilots said the same thing. Literally. They were the classic case of getting released and that if they couldn't, then nobody could.



Just ask yourself, why would management file for NMB (*NOT* ALPA) if management thought there was any inkling there would be a release/cooling anytime soon? Sorry, I'm just not seeing it. Spirit in 2010 was a 30 something airplane nobody with 450 pilots.

ShyGuy

My worthless two cents, I think management (like most of America) has figured out that we are headed for a recession next year. Yes, flying looks great right now and bookings are high but I really believe these numbers are skewed because they represent the pent up demand from people who have been locked down and not vacationed or seen family since 2020. We are now maskless and they are going guns blazing. This is going to wear off.

Putin isn't going to admit defeat, Ukraine isn't going to give up, which means that war is going to be protracted. Oil, gas, energy costs will continue to be volatile. China continues to pursue a 0 Covid policy and lockdowns happen at the first inkling of infections spreading. Factories, ports, you name it, it gets locked down. Supply chain issues are going to persist because of these policies and the fact that literally everything here comes from Asia. And not to mention the trillions we printed and handed out like candy. These are the supply side issues which are not letting up. Nothing the Fed can do changes the supply side issues. It was never "transitory" inflation.

So then we have demand. Pent up demand with people spending money, traveling, buying tickets, going out, etc. Maybe I'll be wrong (and I truly hope I am), but I think it's only a matter of time later this year people reverse that. Less spending, less buying. The self-fulfilling prophecy of "it's too expensive now, I'll just wait 6-12 months when it'll be cheaper." That will lead to lower demand, lower spending, and our economic output will drop. People are facing sustained inflated prices for literally everything, their grocery bill, gasoline, cars, furniture, housing, utilities, you name it, it's gone up. 1st Q negative GDP was a hint of things to come. Analysts expected a 1% gain. It actually was a -1.4% loss. We'll probably be okay for 2nd and 3rd quarter because of the aforementioned pent up demand. But after that, I can see it slowing. The definition of a recession is "a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters." Just two quarters is all it takes. I think we'll be there next year. The pandemic taught people that when you get down to it, they really don't have to fly. In a stagflation economy, airplane tickets are luxuries that can probably wait for a later time.

It's coming. Don't think it'll be "the big one" but it certainly will be noticeable.

flyprdu

I'm not sure why, but ShyGuy always seems be on the side saying that the "pilots aren't going to get a good contract."

The rationale changes. No leverage. Management's superiority. We'll never be released by the NMB. This week's excuse is "impending recession." But they're always a reskin of the same general message. The pilot's aren't getting a good contract.

AK22

[QUOTE=ShyGuy;3421579]Not sure if you've looked but every airline stock is in the dumpster right now. This year has wiped off more than 7 trillion (with a T) out of the stock market.

Yeah….most people have noticed, but BM has managed to destroy 50% of the shareholder value of this company in 5 years, and he’s just getting started. Ironically I think this place will get sold for less than what we paid for VX, the playbook relied on cheap oil and plentiful labor-neither exist going forward. They won’t be laughing here soon enough.

ShyGuy

You find where I wrote “not going to get a good contract” and I’ll give you a partially eaten snickerdoodle cookie from an inflight meal.

flyprdu

I'm just befuddled by your persistent pessimism. What's your angle? What are you trying to convey? You keep repeating these "truths" you obviously have a point, but you never connect all the dots.

You're just out here keepin' it real for us delusional optimists, waiting for the dominos to start falling.

I'll tell you one thing, the difference between F9 and AS is clear. Look at who is actually presiding over the NMB. 2017 is not 2022. Elections matter. You think the past can adequately predict the future with 100% certainty, but this industry should have taught you by now, expect the unexpected.

Also, the snickerdoodle fell apart before it got to me.