900
11-02-2017 | 02:44 AM
#81
You scratched my anchor
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,122
Likes: 74
That means junior CA would have to drop approx. 1650 numbers in the next bid run. That's looking at the typical DOH amongst a bunch of people and not the random 2013 DOH amongst a bunch of 2001 DOH's.
The seniority list/DOH gets scrambled because there's a bunch of 2013's mixed with 1999 DOH's, then groups of 2013 DOH's, and alternating 1999 and 2013's, then fewer 2013's mixed with 2001 DOH's. It doesn't become pure 2013 DOH's until 12450 ish.
Current junior CA DOH, non AWA, is 3/2001. 10,8xx of 15,xxx. On property is 10,679 of 14,542 (73%). Junior CA percentage used to be 60-65%. Then it dropped closer to 70%. Now it's 73%. That's because the G4 FO job pays the same (FO line holder vs CA rsv) and gives you better relative seniority. So the junior CA is 3,863 numbers senior to the junior guy on the list. That's under five years to upgrade assuming typical retirement patterns.
The seniority list/DOH gets scrambled because there's a bunch of 2013's mixed with 1999 DOH's, then groups of 2013 DOH's, and alternating 1999 and 2013's, then fewer 2013's mixed with 2001 DOH's. It doesn't become pure 2013 DOH's until 12450 ish.
Current junior CA DOH, non AWA, is 3/2001. 10,8xx of 15,xxx. On property is 10,679 of 14,542 (73%). Junior CA percentage used to be 60-65%. Then it dropped closer to 70%. Now it's 73%. That's because the G4 FO job pays the same (FO line holder vs CA rsv) and gives you better relative seniority. So the junior CA is 3,863 numbers senior to the junior guy on the list. That's under five years to upgrade assuming typical retirement patterns.
11-02-2017 | 04:17 AM
#83
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 1,826
Likes: 0
From: 6th place
On the March bid? No way. There’s 80 displacements between closing ORD and CLT 75/76 which will halt some of the movement. Plus now bids will only be every 3 months or so.
I’d say early to mid 2019 for 2013 hires.
11-02-2017 | 06:29 AM
#84
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,417
Likes: 120
From: Window seat
Another factor is the increase in additional G4 a/c. Line holding FO pays the same as 76 hrs of G2 CA rsv pay. The decision to give up 75% relative seniority, in a great gig, to upgrade to junior n/b domestic CA on reserve, makes G4 FO's pause. It's a constant topic of discussion since 1538 of 1541 G4 FO's are senior to the junior CA in the system.
11-02-2017 | 06:53 AM
#85
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,417
Likes: 120
From: Window seat
4/2013 = 12,2xx
5/2013 = 12,3xx
6/2013 = 12,45x
10/2013 = 12,48x
So first 2013 DOH to 'summer' 2013 is 700-800 numbers.
I'd find the difference between junior CA last year vs 12 months later in 2017, add maybe 150(?) numbers for the increased retirements and that would be my guess for the junior CA number a year from now.
11-02-2017 | 07:23 AM
#86
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 1,826
Likes: 0
From: 6th place
900
He said mid 2013 DOH for upgrade. There's a significant bump between early and mid 2013 DOH's -
4/2013 = 12,2xx
5/2013 = 12,3xx
6/2013 = 12,45x
10/2013 = 12,48x
So first 2013 DOH to 'summer' 2013 is 700-800 numbers.
I'd find the difference between junior CA last year vs 12 months later in 2017, add maybe 150(?) numbers for the increased retirements and that would be my guess for the junior CA number a year from now.
4/2013 = 12,2xx
5/2013 = 12,3xx
6/2013 = 12,45x
10/2013 = 12,48x
So first 2013 DOH to 'summer' 2013 is 700-800 numbers.
I'd find the difference between junior CA last year vs 12 months later in 2017, add maybe 150(?) numbers for the increased retirements and that would be my guess for the junior CA number a year from now.
I don’t know where you got those numbers but your 6/13 hires seniority number is about 450 too high (as in they’re around 11,9xx).
11-02-2017 | 09:42 AM
#87
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,417
Likes: 120
From: Window seat
The senior 2013 hires might upgrade this year. But it will take a drop of 1,000+ numbers to reach the summer of 2013 new hires by the March vacancy run.
11-02-2017 | 11:35 AM
#88
Line Holder
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 554
Likes: 24
From: On all fours
Yup. Because if the difference between junior CA and the bottom of the list is only 3,863 numbers guys hired shortly will advance quicker as their upgrade opportunity intersects with the retirement peak (800+ 2021-2026, 900+ 2023-2026). So the quicker upgrade window lasts for the next 2-3(4?) years of hiring.
Another factor is the increase in additional G4 a/c. Line holding FO pays the same as 76 hrs of G2 CA rsv pay. The decision to give up 75% relative seniority, in a great gig, to upgrade to junior n/b domestic CA on reserve, makes G4 FO's pause. It's a constant topic of discussion since 1538 of 1541 G4 FO's are senior to the junior CA in the system.
Another factor is the increase in additional G4 a/c. Line holding FO pays the same as 76 hrs of G2 CA rsv pay. The decision to give up 75% relative seniority, in a great gig, to upgrade to junior n/b domestic CA on reserve, makes G4 FO's pause. It's a constant topic of discussion since 1538 of 1541 G4 FO's are senior to the junior CA in the system.
11-02-2017 | 04:18 PM
#90
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,417
Likes: 120
From: Window seat
Yup. Brain fart. Only checked 777/787. :-/
I need to recheck. I’m apparently missing on a couple of cylinders...
I need to recheck. I’m apparently missing on a couple of cylinders...
Last edited by Sliceback; 11-02-2017 at 04:22 PM. Reason: Added I need to recheck. I’m apparently missing on a couple of cylinders.
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