A LOT of guys say that.

I have yet to come across any who actually do it .

 

That’s because they are retired and out fishing not hanging out in the crew room.

 

Download the seniority list off APA page.....updated monthly....shows early retirements......significantly more than 0 retire early

 

A guy publishes monthly retirement data. Ten percent leave at an avg age of 60, 90% stay to 65.

 

10/29/2017 - 12/31/2017 201
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 528
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 637
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 772
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 838
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 861
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 957

Retirements at age 65 so 900 doesn't seem out of line to stay ahead of attrition. (and early retirements of course!)

 

The company's estimate for 2017 retirements looked like they were using know retirements and adding 15%. That's close to the historical average I tracked years ago. That would indicate perhaps 607 retirements next year.

Using the recent actually retirements with 10% coming from guys averaging 60 yrs old would indicate perhaps 627 reitementes next year. 528 + 10% of 2023's.

Two assumptions = 617 +/- 10.

Hiring nine hundred next year would result in apaprox a two percent increase in manning which is approx the same percentage as the long term expected growth in the industry. So nothing unexpected in those percentages.

 

Junior CA upgrade will go to mid 2013 hires in NY if they want it. Wide body FO will be mid to late 2013 hires on this next bid. That's my prediction. Things are clicking big time. Expect lots of movement.

 

I like your optimism

 

Maybe a little soon for 13 hires. I'm an 04 hire and was awarded in July. I'm near the bottom and there's all the 05, 07-08 hires (if they want it)to go, then you have 11-12 hires.

Unless of course you're referring to the E190.

 

That means junior CA would have to drop approx. 1650 numbers in the next bid run. That's looking at the typical DOH amongst a bunch of people and not the random 2013 DOH amongst a bunch of 2001 DOH's.

The seniority list/DOH gets scrambled because there's a bunch of 2013's mixed with 1999 DOH's, then groups of 2013 DOH's, and alternating 1999 and 2013's, then fewer 2013's mixed with 2001 DOH's. It doesn't become pure 2013 DOH's until 12450 ish.

Current junior CA DOH, non AWA, is 3/2001. 10,8xx of 15,xxx. On property is 10,679 of 14,542 (73%). Junior CA percentage used to be 60-65%. Then it dropped closer to 70%. Now it's 73%. That's because the G4 FO job pays the same (FO line holder vs CA rsv) and gives you better relative seniority. So the junior CA is 3,863 numbers senior to the junior guy on the list. That's under five years to upgrade assuming typical retirement patterns.