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-   -   Furlough Estimates (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/american/129761-furlough-estimates.html)

airlinegypsy 08-05-2020 07:29 AM


Originally Posted by m78fl370 (Post 3105173)
This is going to lead to WAY more guys without pay this fall than would have been if the company just had to furlough the old fashioned way.


How so? A max of 2500 can be furloughed unless more warn letters are issued and the ZTL is supposed to reduce furloughs 1 for 1. Or are you seeing it another way?


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crusher 08-05-2020 07:52 AM

I think the biggest question is if this is one for one, then what number of furloughed are we starting at? Without this info we are left blindly trusting the company on this most important issue.

m78fl370 08-05-2020 08:54 AM


Originally Posted by airlinegypsy (Post 3105306)
How so? A max of 2500 can be furloughed unless more warn letters are issued and the ZTL is supposed to reduce furloughs 1 for 1. Or are you seeing it another way?


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The issue was that the 1600 staffing overage was still understood to be the number for next summer. The overage was bigger for the fall, 2500? But it looked like they were going to have to carry some of that overage due to being unable to furlough that many and then get them back by next summer. We just conceded to the company the ability to quickly put all 2500 without pay throughout the fall, and bring them back quickly. (Maybe).

From what it looks like to me, for the bottom 1600, this deal could work out for them better than nothing. For the 900 in the bubble, this looks like a certain furlough, or ZTL, when there was a chance of hanging on before.

Systemized 08-05-2020 10:58 AM


Originally Posted by m78fl370 (Post 3105371)
The issue was that the 1600 staffing overage was still understood to be the number for next summer. The overage was bigger for the fall, 2500? But it looked like they were going to have to carry some of that overage due to being unable to furlough that many and then get them back by next summer. We just conceded to the company the ability to quickly put all 2500 without pay throughout the fall, and bring them back quickly. (Maybe).

From what it looks like to me, for the bottom 1600, this deal could work out for them better than nothing. For the 900 in the bubble, this looks like a certain furlough, or ZTL, when there was a chance of hanging on before.

exactly this 100%. What a gift to the company. Not bad for the bottom 1200, not so much for the 1300 above them. The deal minimizes pilot costs right away, raising the prospects of positive cash flow sooner. Would of been a good time for the quitters to lock in Delta profit sharing.

airlinegypsy 08-05-2020 11:14 AM


Originally Posted by m78fl370 (Post 3105371)
The issue was that the 1600 staffing overage was still understood to be the number for next summer. The overage was bigger for the fall, 2500? But it looked like they were going to have to carry some of that overage due to being unable to furlough that many and then get them back by next summer. We just conceded to the company the ability to quickly put all 2500 without pay throughout the fall, and bring them back quickly. (Maybe).

From what it looks like to me, for the bottom 1600, this deal could work out for them better than nothing. For the 900 in the bubble, this looks like a certain furlough, or ZTL, when there was a chance of hanging on before.


Yes... but can’t those in the 900 preference for a ZTL in event of furlough? If they weren’t going to be furloughed then they won’t get a ZTL. Still making guarantee. That’s how I understand it anyways.


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LBFO79 08-05-2020 11:34 AM


Originally Posted by airlinegypsy (Post 3105429)
Yes... but can’t those in the 900 preference for a ZTL in event of furlough? If they weren’t going to be furloughed then they won’t get a ZTL. Still making guarantee. That’s how I understand it anyways.


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You are correct, but what others are trying to say is that these LOAs are going to trigger a higher number of furloughs than without the LOAs. So if 1600(a guess) was the number AA was going to furlough before these LOAs, that could go up significantly due to the fact that is now not as costly to the company to furlough pilots. Furthermore they can keep those furloughed pilots out even longer. I’d say by the looks of it that the top part of that 2500 are getting put more at risk of furlough because of this LOA. We just removed a barrier to furloughing pilots.

Systemized 08-05-2020 12:33 PM


Originally Posted by LBFO79 (Post 3105442)
You are correct, but what others are trying to say is that these LOAs are going to trigger a higher number of furloughs than without the LOAs. So if 1600(a guess) was the number AA was going to furlough before these LOAs, that could go up significantly due to the fact that is now not as costly to the company to furlough pilots. Furthermore they can keep those furloughed pilots out even longer. I’d say by the looks of it that the top part of that 2500 are getting put more at risk of furlough because of this LOA. We just removed a barrier to furloughing pilots.

yes this 100% let it sink in

Dobbs18 08-05-2020 12:41 PM


Originally Posted by LBFO79 (Post 3105442)
You are correct, but what others are trying to say is that these LOAs are going to trigger a higher number of furloughs than without the LOAs. So if 1600(a guess) was the number AA was going to furlough before these LOAs, that could go up significantly due to the fact that is now not as costly to the company to furlough pilots. Furthermore they can keep those furloughed pilots out even longer. I’d say by the looks of it that the top part of that 2500 are getting put more at risk of furlough because of this LOA. We just removed a barrier to furloughing pilots.

yes yes and yes....I said this in an earlier post.....We would be much better off just going down the normal furlough road then this deal.....and for those saying that can't "furlough" people without a WARN notice, remember, it is NOT a furlough if someone ops into a ZTL by choice....if you are say 500 above the 2500 WARN line and bid ZTL in lieu of furlough, guess what? you are not furloughed!!!! People need to stop thinking that the 2500 WARN letters are some kind of stop gate because they are not! Now a person who was in no immediate danger of getting furloughed has just self furloughed themselves to the utter jubilant joy of the company....without knowing the cut line the bottom 4,000 I'd say pilots will put that sort of bid in. The company will absolutely take every pilot that puts in a ZTL bid and anyone one over the 2500 line who hasn't received a WARN notice and did not put in ZTL in lieu of furlough will get one shortly after the bid is awarded on or around 21st of August. But but that won't be 60 days notice!! Well guess what boys and girls section B.2.c of this piece of $hit says the company may offer ZTL that start in November. Anyone wonder why that is in there?? Well its so they can get the WARN letters out in the legally required time! Take the blinders of people, I wouldn't even wipe my dogs ass with this LOA.

El Peso 08-05-2020 01:00 PM

APA didn’t even need to be in the room for this loa. This is a company’s wet dream come true. All the cost associated with furloughing a pilot just vanished. They’ll side line the whole 2500 for the winter with zero pay yet staying qualified. What a f@cking joking. And is there anything in these loas that require a portion of the 2500 to be awarded the alternating month schedule? Why not just offer that to the whole pilot group, maybe get some takers at the top end and save more money. Then award ZTLs to the 2500. They removed the one and only deterrent the company had to furloughing in mass, training cost.

I’ll take the involuntary furlough and state unemployment thanks. I’ll be damned if I stay current and go through training for zero $. They can bring me back through the full course when they need me.

Craigmac3030 08-05-2020 01:06 PM

As I read it the ZTL won’t start until after you’re VSTLOA is complete, correct??


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