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Old 10-11-2020 | 06:04 PM
  #121  
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Originally Posted by C5Drvr
How long will this furlough last again?

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Pure guess, but I d say longer than the shelf life of this thread so there s no reason to deny thread drift.
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Old 10-11-2020 | 06:19 PM
  #122  
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Originally Posted by highfarfast
Pure guess, but I d say longer than the shelf life of this thread so there s no reason to deny thread drift.
Probably true, but someone must try to herd the APC Cats.

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Old 10-11-2020 | 06:24 PM
  #123  
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Originally Posted by C5Drvr
How long will this furlough last again?

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Who knows? 3-5 years optimistically? A decade pessimistically? Too many variables. Bankruptcy is looming. Will AA pursue a merger and further consolidation to survive? A furloughed pilot could be out the better part of a decade as a merged airline contends with suppressed demand for the next 4-5 years and a glut of pilots...
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Old 10-11-2020 | 07:34 PM
  #124  
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Originally Posted by Route66

Allied Pilots Association Announces Election Results

Capt. Eric (KNOWN UNION-BUSTER) Ferguson Elected to Serve as President

https://www.alliedpilots.org/News/ID...ection-Results

Whats the difference?
Adding “Known Union Buster”? Completely unfounded, delusional, and inflammatory. You really are a piece of garbage.
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Old 10-11-2020 | 08:26 PM
  #125  
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Originally Posted by bababouey
fake news, my boss says we’ll never lose money again, 4th quarter will probably set records for profits.
Absolutely. 4th quarter of which year?
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Old 10-12-2020 | 05:35 AM
  #126  
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
A furloughed pilot could be out the better part of a decade as a merged airline contends with suppressed demand for the next 4-5 years and a glut of pilots...
Yes, a decade was what happened last time but there were fewer mainline retirements in the 2000-2010 decade also.

For a furlough to be out until 2030... I'd say it's more likely that the seniority list wouldn't exist at all at that point.
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Old 10-12-2020 | 05:49 AM
  #127  
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
Who knows? 3-5 years optimistically? A decade pessimistically? Too many variables. Bankruptcy is looming. Will AA pursue a merger and further consolidation to survive? A furloughed pilot could be out the better part of a decade as a merged airline contends with suppressed demand for the next 4-5 years and a glut of pilots...
i know nothing. Just wild speculation like anyone else on this board, but I’d tend to agree. I just don’t see air travel coming back to previous levels anytime in near future. Only thing I’m sure of is a lot of things won’t be the same on the backend of this. I think 3-5 years is optimistic, as we got a long way to go to get back to normal. I never woulda thought that some of this madness would have gone this far in Western countries. Aussies and Kiwi’s living locked up in a police state, EU and UK talking doubling down on lockdowns again. The list goes on. Even (if) once it all “goes away”, the wake of economic destruction won’t just disappear overnight. Heck, I’d probably take the over on 5 years if I were betting in Vegas. I hope I’m just overly pessimistic and wrong.
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Old 10-12-2020 | 06:44 AM
  #128  
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Originally Posted by Andrew_VT
For a furlough to be out until 2030... I'd say it's more likely that the seniority list wouldn't exist at all at that point.
Yep - that’d take AA down to about a third of it’s former size, about 5000 pilots. I don’t see it existing at that point.
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Old 10-12-2020 | 06:49 AM
  #129  
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When demand returns is quite unclear

more than that how it returns and who managed to scoop it up is another big variable. There might be considerable heterogeneity within the industry. I’d agree a decade of furloughs for AA is unlikely but if you throw in a merger and/or another carrier being more successful it’s not ludicrous.
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Old 10-12-2020 | 07:21 AM
  #130  
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Originally Posted by ZeroTT
When demand returns is quite unclear

more than that how it returns and who managed to scoop it up is another big variable. There might be considerable heterogeneity within the industry. I’d agree a decade of furloughs for AA is unlikely but if you throw in a merger and/or another carrier being more successful it’s not ludicrous.
No need to get your panties in a bunch, next summer will make or break this place. Expect talk (good or bad) about summer bookings come April~ish. Then you will see the press for concessions to avoid bk court. My personal view is that we will have demand for our narrow bodies, but long haul demand will be weak, however they figure out to minimize losses from that will be the key ticket. Thankfully our Atlantic and pacific offerings were so weak that we are less exposed than d or u.
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