I was thinking, how obvious can I make something yet still remain 'anonymous' on a forum. hehe. Got any take on this? (T#)

 

Exactly most of the lifers at Mesaba already passed on the chance to go to Northwest. At only 3+ years here I'd be a fool to not take a staple job seing how it'd be 3+ more at full speed flow for me to get to NWA ( not going to happen obviously now that NWA stopped hiring) plus a staple instantly puts 600 (just Mesaba) junior to me. That's by far better than anything else I could ever hope for in getting to a major.... It won't be much longer here and I'd have to be a lifer too based on where I am compared to where I could end up.

 

I would stay wherever your quality of life is best. Hiring is slow or non-existent everywhere so wherever you go, you will have even fewer below on that list than you do here at XJT and movement will be just as slow (though I seem to move up at least a few spots every bid). If you're happy here at XJT then I would stick it out. There are a lot of "chicken littles" in the crew room and here in internet land. Don't buy the doom and gloom.

 

I'm a pessimist on this one. Unless oil undergoes a dramatic correction, my feeling is that NW will furlough enough pilots to put me on the street within a year (Sept 07 hire). That's what I'm basing my plans on. I really hope SuperPilot is right and nobody (NW or CP) gets furloughed... but I'm not horribly optimistic given everything else going on in the industry. It wouldn't take a very big furlough at all to put us on the street (300 would do it).

I had to make a somewhat similar call to you, having come from another "quality" regional facing stagnation (Horizon). Since I left they've announced they're parking all their CRJ700s, shrinking the fleet by ~25%. Glad I left even if I do get furloughed. ExpressJet has much smarter/more aggressive management than Horizon, though.

 

I've considered that stuff. I just think there is a bit more to this decision than "don't make a lateral move right now."

Someone who is 75% at XJT right now has a pretty good chance of being 90-99% in the next 6-12 months. Branded is looking real iffy as far as whether or not it can continue to exist, unfortunately. Delta LAX runs out in 11 months and they're cutting regionals left and right. CAL released a fleet forecast for 2010 that implied 190 XJT ERJs. If that all happened XJT would be out 800 pilots, 24 months from right now. And none of that is far-fetched.

Compass gives any new hires who don't have their ATP that certificate along with a PIC type. If the odds of a furlough are equal between XJT and CPZ I think one would be a bit more marketable on furlough from CPZ and would progress faster when the eventual recall happens.

Decisions decisions. There are at least three others that I know of pondering this same move with similar seniority.

 

Oh god no.......of course I'd take the staple job, i'm 24. However, I've heard what the senior guys here say, and there is no way they will agree to go to the bottom of the NWA list. The only way would be the NWA guys forcing them on the list. In such a case the senior guys would have the right to sue for SLI. I'm pretty sure that would nix the whole deal.

 

Good buddy here at Mesa has the offer as well, and has the same concerns. I don't know what to tell him.

Seems more stable than Mesa, but with either airline, the chances of him being on the street are good. Unfourtunate, since CP seems like a step up from Mesa. Decent pay and work rules, QOL improvement.

 

I don't know if this is the answer but it makes for interesting reading:

http://www.expressjetpilots.com/the-...ny-mohawk.html

On May 16, the Senate Commerce Committee added an amendment to the FAA Reauthorization bill (the Aviation Investment and Modernization Act of 2007, S.1300) that would impose Allegheny-Mohawk Labor Protective Provisions (LPPs) on any future airline mergers or acquisitions. If the bill is approved with this amendment, it will significantly impact the financial feasibility of future airline mergers and acquisitions. It could also nullify existing merger provisions in collective bargaining agreements negotiated between airlines and unions.
.................................................. ......................
A requirement that provisions be made for the integration of seniority lists "in a fair and equitable manner," including, where applicable, agreement through collective bargaining between the airlines and the representatives of the employees affected.

 

Yeah, I'm not really in pain here so the situation is similar but I'm tempted to stay more than your friend is at their company. Good work rules and layovers. Ability to drop everything down to 60 hours got me 19 days off next month so I can build my schedule up from there as the month goes on. But I doubt I will even be able to hold a line eight months from now.

 

If there are more junior people at Mesaba then they could out vote the senior guys if it was ever brought to vote at mesaba. Thus giving the senior guys no choice. A SLI merger scenario would never happen to bring the regionals on board. In reality if it ever happened it would end up as a vote to bring the regional list over and put at the bottom. That would be the first big step in the right direction in this industry.

I personally would do it if i were you. If you are towards the bottom at XJT then the risk vs reward is worth it imho. XJT is probably going to be pretty stagnant for a while and Compass is still getting aircraft. Good luck