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Old 10-23-2014 | 08:31 PM
  #4861  
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Originally Posted by coryk
I guess he's trying to say that there are about 480 pilots on property now-- 240ish of them are captains. 150 will flow next year, so that leaves 100 captains on property (currently, without flow rights). 2015 end of the year seniority list will have about 750 pilots, so thats about 375 captains, 100 of which are on property now. 250 upgrades for next year should account for every FO on property right now.

If you're a November hire, you might upgrade by 2016 but I wouldn't count on it. I think the last of the captains for next year have already started training. I think November hires are looking at early/mid 2016, which is still pretty stellar for a regional given the current circumstances. YMMV.
Guys, there are 300+ upgrades planned. Like I said I counted 330 on the training plan I saw a couple weeks ago. And people keep assuming all the FOs on property will have the 1000, which they won't.
Old 10-23-2014 | 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by coryk
I guess he's trying to say that there are about 480 pilots on property now-- 240ish of them are captains. 150 will flow next year, so that leaves 100 captains on property (currently, without flow rights). 2015 end of the year seniority list will have about 750 pilots, so thats about 375 captains, 100 of which are on property now. 250 upgrades for next year should account for every FO on property right now.

If you're a November hire, you might upgrade by 2016 but I wouldn't count on it. I think the last of the captains for next year have already started training. I think November hires are looking at early/mid 2016, which is still pretty stellar for a regional given the current circumstances. YMMV.
Ok, in Sept I had 498 pilots, minus 40 who recently flowed, makes 458 now. Minus 150 flows and 30 attrition for next year = 278, by fall 2015. Nov hires would be between 40-80 numbers above that 278, or 318-358. If there truly will be 750 pilots, they will be captains. Thats like 42-47% seniority respectively. Or are there really going to be 317 captains and 433 FOs?

Doesn't really matter what some upgrade plan is, if you have 700 pilots, 420 need to be a CA. If your seniority number hits that 420 number range, your in business. Again,will be earlier due to bypassing. Also, attrition could be higher than 30/yr.

Originally Posted by MrMustache
Guys, there are 300+ upgrades planned. Like I said I counted 330 on the training plan I saw a couple weeks ago. And people keep assuming all the FOs on property will have the 1000, which they won't.
Edit: Just realized that my 420 number jives precisely with your 330 upgrade plan. Previous poster said about 100 CAs dont have flow rights. 100+330=430. That upgrade plan hits the standard 60% CA staffing.

Last edited by saturn; 10-23-2014 at 09:17 PM.
Old 10-23-2014 | 09:39 PM
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Originally Posted by MrMustache
Guys, there are 300+ upgrades planned. Like I said I counted 330 on the training plan I saw a couple weeks ago. And people keep assuming all the FOs on property will have the 1000, which they won't.
What training plan are you looking at? The one I saw this week had just under 250 upgrades through fall next year.
Old 10-23-2014 | 10:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Flying J
What training plan are you looking at? The one I saw this week had just under 250 upgrades through fall next year.
So help me understand this. 250 captains today, minus 150 flows, leaves 100 captains. Upgrade 250 more, now you have 350. 750 total pilots. 350 CA and 400 FOs?
Old 10-24-2014 | 04:48 AM
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I'm showing 241 FOs on property now? So the next class should round out the 250?
Old 10-24-2014 | 06:08 AM
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The plan has more than 250 upgrades planned. Like I said 300+ plus there are close to 50-80 FOs here now who will not have 1000 by next year. Which is not accounted for.

Last edited by MrMustache; 10-24-2014 at 06:25 AM.
Old 10-24-2014 | 06:55 AM
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Originally Posted by MrMustache
The plan has more than 250 upgrades planned. Like I said 300+ plus there are close to 50-80 FOs here now who will not have 1000 by next year. Which is not accounted for.
Don't know where to flind that training stuff but as an early Oct hire..we should be included in that training plan in terms of numbers right?
Old 10-24-2014 | 07:04 AM
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Originally Posted by tunes
Don't know where to flind that training stuff but as an early Oct hire..we should be included in that training plan in terms of numbers right?
Yes, people in Jan- Feb should too, after that I would guess 2 years is a good estimate.
Old 10-24-2014 | 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by MrMustache
Yes, people in Jan- Feb should too, after that I would guess 2 years is a good estimate.

I've also heard of 6 FOs leaving in the next month for major gigs. That's a high number considering 40% of the airline is just waiting for their flow and not even applying elsewhere.
Old 10-24-2014 | 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by crazyjaydawg
I've also heard of 6 FOs leaving in the next month for major gigs. That's a high number considering 40% of the airline is just waiting for their flow and not even applying elsewhere.
I don't know if it had been considered in the previous posts concerning staffing/upgrades, but at 3-5/month attrition (as had been mentioned earlier) over the next year I think it would be safe to assume another 50, and possibly more as the pilot group gets larger, needed to cover attrition?
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