The results of the January Advance Entitlement (AE) have been published. IAW the PWA 22.E.10, NH's can only be offered positions that were unbid by pilots already on the seniority list. As such, by my crayon math, this is my best guess for available unbid vacancies which can be offered to the late Jan through early Feb Indoc class(es)*:

7ER (757/767 'classic')
- NYC: 12

73N
- ATL: 25
- LAX: 7
- NYC: 10
- SEA: 10
- SLC: 10

320
- ATL:15
- DTW: 55
- LAX: 5
- SLC: 5

220
- MSP - 4

717
- DTW: 10

Total: 168

* When a pilot bids out of a category, it offsets one pilot who bids in. The net of the posted vacancies are available to NH's. Each new AE resets the list, so the late Jan classes can only be offered unbid positions from the Jan AE, which will close/publish around the 15/16th of Jan, give or take.

Except for MSP 220, every category had more current pilots bid out of each category where a vacancy was offered than who bid in, resulting in the list now available to NH's to look almost identical to the posted vacancies.

There will be a TON of Jan/Feb NH's awarded DTW 320. But remember, as is talked about often here, that you can bid very quickly to change bases. So don't let "DTW" dissuade you from bidding that if you want the 320 in another base. There is a VERY good chance you can change bases before you even finish sims. Never any guarantees.

Also, with many rumors flying of hiring ramping up above initial estimates this year, there simply MUST be larger FO bids preceding that hiring to establish the possible slots as we go forward if that bears true. That creates a ton of opportunities for base changes, especially on the 73 and 320. Less so on the 220, and 717. But even if you had to commute for 2 or 3 months, it would be well worth it to be on your desired airframe right away (rather than taking a lesser desired aircraft just to get your desired base right away).

Good Luck

 

Great info Fangs, thanks.

 

As I said previously, an instructor just told me they were told 1600, then the very same day an LCP told me they were just told 960. So I am pretty confident in my assessment that nobody knows, haha.

 

I'm not going to clutter the thread with an additional quote, Fangs that was the greatest near-term newhire INDOC forecast I've ever seen. The data has always been out there, we just need someone to act on it. You win at crayon math.

 

They seem to be full speed ahead. Was told 250 interviews a month by a friend.

 

I think folks are wise to be wary of all these numbers being cited. For one thing, even if they were all accurate as of 'the telling', things can change rapidly, even within a day or two. The current unconfirmed rumor is that recent events in scheduling seem to have gotten the attention of Ed and/or JL (The de-facto COO), who has effectively directed Flt Ops to hire more (even though he said in the town hall that "it's not that we don't have enough pilots").

As with many things, we should only believe it when we see it, but it would seem to fit actual events that hiring projections may be ramping up for this year. I can say for fact after taking with the former NH Manager that the company felt somewhat 'burned' by the chatter when they had to scale back prior annual estimates, which is why they are now using this "dynamic hiring" language.

I recognize that's all squishy language, but that's the reality of the world we are currently living in here. Good Luck to all.

 

You mentioned a lot of opportunities for base changes on the 73 and 320, not so much on the 717,220. But what about the 75/76?

I keep hearing to bid airplane and worry about base later, but I’m not sure how long I’d be willing to commute for

 

Who's upvoting this troll? He doesn't even work here.

 

People who want an interview.

 

The 75/76 is kinda middle ground. The current bases are ATL, NYC, and LAX, so there is some variety, but not as much. As a general rule, getting into NYC is never difficult, as it is perpetually the most junior base. Again, there are never any guarantees, but virtually every bid has NH's changing bases down to the very bottom of the list to somewhere. And the vast majority of the time, you can probably get a base change on your very first bid (which if you are on property the day it closes, you will be able to submit for if you login).

One thing that bears repeating regularly is, there are almost ALWAYS awards posted in categories that have no vacancies posted. So, just because you don't see a vacancy doesn't mean you can't get it awarded. You have to bid it to be awarded it, so make them say "no" by including every option you can stomach in your bids. Bid What You Want, Want What You Bid (BWYWWWYB). Good Luck