Yes yes makes sense, BUT..

BOS is much easier to staff on both NB and WB sides due to NY’s close proximity using pilots on a sub-1 hour flight. Much easier justifying no pilot domicile in BOS.

AUS will be all NB operations. Management has already expressed a need to be able to have quicker coverage in central U.S. during IROPS since they have no nearby domicile to pull from for quick recovery.

AUS growth is happening much faster with AA’s pullout comparative to getting BOS to where it’s at - at least of late. New routes being announced every few months.. you have AA gone and WN somewhat crippled no better time to pounce.

Last. EB is retiring soon. Absolutely before 2030 when the new concourse comes online. He’s already publicly mentioned he’s named a successor and he’s nearing his end at CEO. Therefore, a new management time is likely imminent - at least by 2030. Delta is growing too on both NB&WB, put more planes somewhere and plan with them.

 

A handful have gone out in DTW320 over the last few days. Last ones I've seen in my category were last November.

 

There, fixed it for you. How long was it between when they closed the BOS pilot base but kept the FA base... more than 20 years I think.

 

Nah thats old Delta

 

I appreciate your optimism and personally want you to be right.

However, Ed’s retirement is highly unlikely to bring any change to Flight Ops’ basing philosophy. Base consolidation has gone on for decades here, throughout multiple CEO tenures.

Where did management state that they desire faster coverage for recovery in the central U.S.? Between ATL, MSP, and SLC, any point in the central U.S. is accessible in less than 2 hours of flying time. How does a small, single-fleet pilot base in a low-frequency AUS hub meaningfully increase operational reliability in other parts of the central U.S.?

By 2030, Flight Ops might have a new uniform vendor chosen to provide the same uniform that we’ve had since the 1930’s. You’re giving them way too much credit.

 

Straight from the AE memo:

”…but do plan to retain the SEA 330 base, allowing it to right-size as pilots leave the SEA 330 categories.”

 

Yet, BOS 330 and SEA 350 back to back - yes I’m highly optimistic more are to come both NB & WB. Growth is coming both in fleet and pilot group and the hubs have so many gates. More categories and surely new bases are coming with it.

I’m a firm believer FLT OPS will open a pilot base when it makes financial sense. I don’t believe they are against opening a pilot domicile purely out of spite at all. If the numbers makes sense Delta generally does it.

In the article I posted earlier; VP Network noted nearing around 80 daily departures (including partners) when next Spring has around 60 loaded. That’s with around 6 gates - Delta is set to receive 15 in 2030 (and hopefully more) making nearly on par volume wise with BOS. Unlike BOS, AUS fits perfectly in Delta’s domestic network for connecting traffic (especially those west of the Mississippi River as to not backtrack to ATL.. and yes SLC is WAY to far away as DTW/MSP are too far north) driving up frequency. I see AUS 320 (as it is the backbone of Delta’s operation), but 73N and 220 are viable too. BOS is a key intl. operation - poor domestic connection.

https://news.delta.com/media/video/63066

Delta has acutely grown Austin this past year and is only indicating they want back in the TX market with their own hub to capture the rapidly growing TX market. It’s been their #1 “pet project” now and for awhile.

 

LAX 73A has had quite a few. Doesn’t help you, but they are out there.

 

I am continually amazed when pilots try and connect flight attendant basing to pilot basing. The differences are so huge and obvious it just makes zero sense.

 

2030 is a long way away - the aviation landscape is going to be very different in 5 years. I expect many LCC mergers in the next 3 years - down to 2-3 large LCCs. (ie: Breeze and Avelo merge, Spirit/Frontier try again and merge, Alaska and JB merge). For the majors, I don't see a merger unless one of us bought a large LCC.

I do think it's in the company's best interest to grow a hub in AUS. I've said it before, it's well located - look at a map of our hubs and there is a huge hole in the south central US. MCI is too small a market, DFW has American, no way to compete against that. Houston has United.

If I were in network planning, I'd start throwing the A220 in there, it's the perfect location with a great O/D market and good locations for connections - booming tech, business, and tourism traffic. Carefully upsize with the 320/737 where needed.

Example markets:

https://imgur.com/a/5T0MOcj