I wouldn't make any predictions based on the next AE. Aren't April AE's typically tiny since it puts you in training during the summer? The 2025 one was extra anemic but 2025 was as a whole AE wise.

 

And what percentage of oil does the US provide for itself now vs ghe 1970s?

“drill, baby, drill”

 

Your post is technically correct but logically incomplete as you are significantly underestimating the sheer scale of the math required to replace the Hormuz flows. It's like trying to divert the Mississippi river into garden hoses.

UAE pipeline has a capacity of 1.8m bpd. UAE typically exports 3.2m bpd

The UAE rail recently moved 459,000 tonnes of Oil in 9 days. A VLCC supertanker ship carries 270,000 tonnes in one go. You can't run a global oil market on train sets

Saudi pipeline has an emergency capacity of 7m bpd. But the Yanbu port is not designed to handle the Kingdom's entire output. 4.5m bpd at best out of that port. Then the Tankers have to deal with the Houthis on the Red Sea. Good luck with that

When you add up all the "hoses" you get relief of roughly 6.5m bpd. Problem is the Hormuz normally moves 18-20mpd leaving a huge global shortfall.

 

Most of our oil is exported. Our refineries are not setup to refine the oil we produce.

 

It’s like “Last of the Mohican’s” the way those kamikazee-Shaheed drones continue to impact oil infrastructure; oil holding tanks, refineries, terminals, and least of all tankers. If the red coats can’t figure out how to (cost effectively) defeat this threat, jet fuel prices will remain sky high. Worldwide demand/supply impacts domestic prices, despite how many wells the Permian can pump.

 

When and IF a US major airline announces "fuel surcharges" then others follow suit, that will pretty much tell the tale.

Read somewhere that a $0.01/gallon rise in fuel prices costs Delta roughly $40 million/year.

No one hedges fuel anymore in the US, so that's out.

 

The average price of WTI in 2025 was $64/barrel. When this article was quoted yesterday (Wednesday 3/11), WTI closed at $87/barrel. WTI is at $95/barrel today and rising.

I do expect WTI to stay well over $100/barrel for several months, so there is likely to be a major impact to US airlines.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/airf...tivity.Message

 

Why wasn’t this an issue in 2022? Seems like it’s only relevant if the news media is discussing it. Do you believe everything you see on TV?

 

I think the difference mostly is that oil rising because of the whims of market forces is starkly different than what’s happening now.

There just doesn’t seem like an obvious off-ramp, and people are anticipating it going much much higher.

Someone else who has way more knowledge than me of oil prices related to geo-politics and the SoH chaos can chime in.

 

I find it hard to believe lighting oil infrastructure on fire, bombing it or sinking it is just media fabricated hysteria. I don't know how anyone can have an honest conversation about what's happening and claim there will not be any long term impacts