https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-...-east-conflict

"On March 11, 2026, 32 member countries of the IEA (International Energy Agency) unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves. This is the largest-ever, unprecedented release, designed to counter massive supply disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East and to stabilize global energy markets."

Not saying this is a permanent fix but at least there are steps being taken to soften the blow.

 

Needlessly histrionic.

 

This won't age well ...

A5S

 

Gotta look past the 400 million barrel number and look at flowrate. At best collectively those SPRs can release 2m barrels per day(bpd). 18m bpd are currently trapped in the Hormuz. Not to mention manh counties in the region have shut in their production due to full storage. It will take a month or two to get back to full production if a truce was negotiated in the next 5 mins. More this stretches on the longer recovery takes.

That SPR release was mainly a desperate attempt by the IEA to calm Oil markets. I doubt the market will remain subdued for much longer. Just like the reaction of many was meh when COVID-19 appeared until reality set in, this will be similar. The rise in price for food, goods, and gas will be significant, and it will be a stark reminder for the world how important Oil is after everyone has been chasing Tech and AI stocks for the last decade

 

IMO it's probably too late to TACO. I can't believe they didn't have a plan to keep the strait open before they began this campaign. I don't see Iran stopping unless they get a resoundingly good deal. If the US just decides mission accomplished and pulls out, I don't think that reverses much, you still have Israel antagonizing them.

I think we're in for a long haul here. Unless some sort of peace deal very favorable to Iran is agreed.

 

There’s a lot less dependency on the Strait of Hormuz than there was 15 years ago. The UAE has a huge pipeline that runs from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah which bypasses the Strait. About 1/2 of all the UAE oil exported can be routed thru this pipeline. The UAE also recently completed their freight rail network which can run tank and container cars to Fujairah. Saudi Arabia can send their oil exports west to Jeddah. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar remain blocked - but Iran is by far hurt the most with the Strait closed. Iran will run out of breath before anyone and they’d likely see pressure from China to keep the Strait open.

Not saying that it’s no big deal, but it will not bring the global economy to a halt that’s for sure.

 

65-68? I’ll freeze in the summer with that.

 

this could be an interesting side thread if we manage to behave while discussing. Maybe the MODS could extract a few of these recent posts and make a new thread titled something like Hormuz closure. That way dudes can punditize while keeping the AE thread viable?

AE: a drop in demand might be exactly what CR needs in order to rebalance our operation. The tell about 717/7er parking will probably start showing up in filled slots on this ae as well as newhires. For my part I’m glad to see atl717b on the newhire list and not simply dtw- shows some longevity

 

It seems almost daily that a new, sensational threat emerges from “Iran”, whoever that is. Whether it is credible remains to be seen but that may matter less than the economic risk calculation that those threats are causing. At some point, however, “Iran” will have to follow through or their limits of power will be exposed. Around that time perhaps some other global players might ask the question why, exactly, 1 “nation (?)” gets to decide who navigates the straight of Hormuz, especially if that “nation” isn’t exactly loved by all of its people. Long term this seems like a losing strategy, albeit with the ability to inflict heavy damage along the way.

bringing the topic back to 2026 AE’s…. It seems possible that the 2026 US election is the only real reason that “Iran” isn’t getting invaded yet. Nobody wants an invasion, but without boots on the ground the regime is likely to survive this narrowly-defined conflict and the threat to stability will continue to persist and the debate will continue as to whether “Iran” can be trusted with nuclear weapons (potentially. But only if they decide to use nuclear abilities for not simply civil purposes like they totally have been). AE for the search engine and to stay on topic

 

[mod input] Made this its own thread. Fair warning to keep the partisan comments/attacks out of the discussion IAW the TOS.