As has been stated, they typically hire a bit more than they say they will, thank goodness. The cycle you and I were hired on was originally projected to be ~300. It ended up being a bit over 700. Hopefully the retirements will keep ticking at a better than age 65 pace (as logically they will), and the 717 deliveries will in actuality add more bodies needed. Best case scenario is the widebody order is growth. Whatever the NBs are coming will likely be more old model 757, 88, and 320 replacements. Let's hope this age of DL hiring doesn't stop for years.

 

i guess Zimmerman found not guilty...

 

Can someone post a link or description of where to actually hear or see this "hiring" message? I haven't seen anything...

 

If the rumor is true the WBs are coming in 2015 time frame and if it's true they're 100% growth then we'd need to hire.

But as for retirements:

• 56 retirements for all of 2013
• 121 for 2014 or 177 since 2013
• 168 for 2015 or 345 since 2013
• 223 for 2016 or 568 since 2013
• 284 for 2017 or 852 since 2013.

So put it this way, between now and the end of 2015 we need to replace 345 pilots. By the end of 2015 if we do indeed have 84 B717s x 14 pilots = 906 pilots - 270 already funded pilots we need 636 new B717 pilots.

So between now and the end of 2015 we need 636 B717 pilots + 345 retirees or 981 pilots. If we hire 300 in 2014, we now need 681 pilots in 2015.

But that does not include WB pilots needed in 2015. Lets say it is 12 A330s and we take 6 in 2015 for instance. We need 25 pilots x 6 A330s = 150 more pilots or 831 pilots beyond the 300 being hired.

Anyways, take it to the end of 2016, net it all out, take 6 more A330s and the 3 remaining 717s and change nothing else. We need 1830 additional pilots to cover retirements, growth 717s, growth 330s.

So 300 in 2014 means 1530 to go or 765 per year. That's 64 pilots per month

So I agree they need more than 300 in 2014 if all of the above was true. The question I have is if we tend to lose more pilots off the seniority list than planned, why are we trending towards undershooting hiring? What gives?

 

Look at the Delta Flight Ops Comm, weekly update. It was sent out at 1pm.

 

From 2010 until now we had 558 retirements. I think there were less than 50 scheduled. I know part of that was the early out program, but we will see more retirements than scheduled. Unless we have a major incident that effects the industry or another merger, I'd bet we see hiring every year for the next 10. Maybe not classes every month, but at least some hiring every year.

 

I tend to sleep with one eye opened.




oh wait, pic fail.

 

Thx. However, the last weekly update showing is Jul 5th and doesn't discuss hiring... I saw someone before say it was up and then pulled down.

We all may be seriously overjumping the gun here, there is in fact NOT any public announcement, in writing, of hiring posted ? I'm looking for good news like everyone else, but it seems some of us are so desperate to bang the drum that we're banging it without even a written public announcement? Oh please... let it NOT be a typo or cut and paste mistake that was quickly removed as totally bogus.

Good analysis FTB for the hiring, but also take into account the CR statement we are 300 overstaffed now in your subtractions.

 

I think it should be hiring perpetually when you look at the scheduled retirements and given how people leave early.

But let's take the CP rumor of 700 overstaffed into the equation plus B717/330s growth jets or GJs. Instead of 1830 by the end of 2016 we only need 1130. 1130 / 3 years = 377 pilots per year.

Look all of this is going to get lost in the mud as time goes on. Even if the company really wanted 9000, they'd need to hire. So I think it will be hard to notice but if 300-400/yr was the case instead of what it should be, I'd sure would like to know why in July 2013 we were considered overstaffed by 700.

Because if it was as EB and RA mentioned "increased pilot productivity" from the 2012 PWA, I sure as hell don't want to repeat that feat.

 

I was writing out 700 when you asked about 300.

Still the same question, how come the TA didn't make us understaffed?