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-   -   Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/36912-any-latest-greatest-about-delta.html)

Alan Shore 04-27-2014 07:50 AM


Originally Posted by flyallnite (Post 1631269)
My jibes at ALPA are on the basis of expecting more for my dues in terms of compensation, not seeking an alternative, to be clear. The banner only bothers me as I see it as a misplaced sentiment that could be counterproductive. I don't want to start reading communiqués that offer the same sentiment.

Agreed.


Originally Posted by flyallnite (Post 1631269)
We are on track to post a 4B pretax profit in 2014. I agree the past profits are analogous to the late 90's, but going forward looks to be a different story, wouldn't you agree?

There are unfortunately many different ways to spin the numbers. In 1998, we saw the largest to date pretax profit of $1.7B, which is of course dwarfed by the $2.7B pretax income of 2013, let alone the projections for 2014. Those who argue the margin point will say that 1998 saw a pretax margin of 12.0%, while 2013 saw only 7.0%, due largely to the interest we're paying on our debt. Assuming zero increase in total revenue, a pretax profit of $4.0B would generate a margin of 10.6% - still less than that of 1998.

OTOH, the total block hours flown in 1998 were 2.1M. In 2013, we flew 2.7M block hours, an increase of only 29% while revenue increased 168%. In the meantime, Gulf Coast jet fuel went up from $0.40 to $2.92 per gallon, an increase of 630%!!

Wouldn't it be nice if our pilot cost could keep up with that rate of inflation?

In 2001, the first full year of C2K and before too many of the costs of the post 9/11 kicked in, we had a pilot CASM of 1.34 cents. That hit its high point of 1.83 in 2003, but I don't know how much of that increase was due to C2K and how much of it was due to the added costs of massive overstaffing and displacements. At the very least, I would like to see our pilot CASM, i.e., total cost of the PWA, keep up with the rise of revenue per seat mile.

Sink r8 04-27-2014 08:01 AM


Originally Posted by LeineLodge (Post 1631335)
Sometimes it just turns out to be timing. I agree that in a large category, there "should" be more likelihood of at least someone sitting around willing to do it.

As someone else pointed out, RSV is the best way to open up your sked for rolling thunder IF you can get it rolling. This is especially true when the ALV is near it's upper limits (don't know what NYCERB's ALV is, just saying) because that will soak up another additional day, or more, for each REG pilot making them even less available for a GS.

Once you get the first 2 or 3 your sked is pretty wide open for the remainder of the month.

That seems entirely plausible. It's not much to go from 1 to 2 without senior people jumping in, and once you've got two or three, as you said, the field is wide open. There really aren't a lot of senior REG pilots that have enough openings on their sched for multiple GS. Especially not when they can't drop trips.

Normally, you'd expect senior guys to be able to give up a trip via the SB, in order to swoop in on an easy GS, but in reality, everyone else is probably already maxxed out. Which explains why GS#1 are being handed out to near the bottom of the category, but that's about as far as it goes.

BTW, the person(s) that negotiated the stipulation about GS#2 not being handed out until everyone had a shot at GS#1 need(s) to have a statue erected in their honor. That was a huge improvement.

tsquare 04-27-2014 08:09 AM


Originally Posted by LeineLodge (Post 1631335)
Sometimes it just turns out to be timing. I agree that in a large category, there "should" be more likelihood of at least someone sitting around willing to do it.

As someone else pointed out, RSV is the best way to open up your sked for rolling thunder IF you can get it rolling. This is especially true when the ALV is near it's upper limits (don't know what NYCERB's ALV is, just saying) because that will soak up another additional day, or more, for each REG pilot making them even less available for a GS.

Once you get the first 2 or 3 your sked is pretty wide open for the remainder of the month.

Another rendition of rolling thunder (though not exactly ROLLING thunder) is to bid to have all your days off at the end of the month - which is sometimes a better plan for the more junior among us. Your days all then "roll" in the PB bank and you can place them, coverage permitting, at the beginning of the following month to open things up even more - rolling from month to month. This sometimes works for the junior guys because other pilots are already past their G#1, 2, etc by the time the junior pilot hits his X days, putting him at/near the front of the line for several in a row. Of course, this assumes you didn't time out already during your RSV stretch of 17-18 in a row. It's definitely more of an art/crapshoot than a science.

This is exactly right. There is a huge amount of luck in getting the ball rolling. And even when that happens, you still have to have the right sequence of X days and seniority/availability/and category manning to keep it rolling. You also have to have a willingness to fly crappy trips (like MEX)... My category has practically zero GSs going out anymore. I don't think we have had more than 5 or 6 all month...

forgot to bid 04-27-2014 09:01 AM


Originally Posted by Alan Shore (Post 1631316)
What is shown on the Bid Monitor Report are the total pay and credit hours that go into the staffing formula.

thats what I thought, so how does this below factor in?



Although the GSs numbers are rather astounding.

Jan-Feb-Mar GS on ATLM88B
2013: 42 + 72 + 128 = 242 or 81 per month.
2014: 630 + 610 + 801 = 2041 or 680 per month.

Jan-Feb-Mar GS system wide
2013: 540 + 851 + 1396 = 2787 or 929 per month.
2014: 5335 + 4557 + 4908 = 14800 or 4933 per month.
?

forgot to bid 04-27-2014 09:16 AM


Originally Posted by tsquare (Post 1631351)
This is exactly right. There is a huge amount of luck in getting the ball rolling. And even when that happens, you still have to have the right sequence of X days and seniority/availability/and category manning to keep it rolling. You also have to have a willingness to fly crappy trips (like MEX)... My category has practically zero GSs going out anymore. I don't think we have had more than 5 or 6 all month...

we have a plethora of GSs go out every day on my category. I got a three day gslip two weeks ago and since ive had seven days of wide open no restrictions GS in and not once got one or was passed for one. I get rolling thunder and all but I wouldnt risk it. Despite all the GSs we still have a lot getting GS #1 (and many of those are senior). I saw someone with #3 or #4 but vast majority is #1 and senior guys on #2.

Alan Shore 04-27-2014 09:23 AM


Originally Posted by forgot to bid (Post 1631374)
..how does...(premium flying) factor in?

GS/IA flying is combined with reserve flying to determine the number of reserve pilots required for each position, while total pay and credit plus known absences divided by the ALV determines the number of regular pilots required for that position.

forgot to bid 04-27-2014 09:54 AM


Originally Posted by Alan Shore (Post 1631385)
GS/IA flying is combined with reserve flying to determine the number of reserve pilots required for each position, while total pay and credit plus known absences divided by the ALV determines the number of regular pilots required for that position.


Originally Posted by 76drvr (Post 1631259)
It's not just seniority advancement, its growth. Per the bid monitor report
  • Apr '13 Pay Hours 570,475
  • Apr '14 Pay Hours 605,633
  • Increase in pay hours 35,158
  • Apr '13 CAs required 4,409
  • Apr '14 CAs required 4,852
  • Increase in CAs required 443
  • Apr '13 FOs required 5,281
  • Apr '14 FOs required 5,584
  • Increase in FOs required 303
  • Total staffing increase required YOY 746
With the large AE that was just posted, it looks like there will be 100s more Delta pilots advancing.

So in April 2013 we went from 10,547 pilots to to 10,681 in April 2014. The seniority list declined by about 50 numbers but the # in category is what matters. Or maybe that's just me.

The thing about the pay hours for 2013 is 531K of it was block hours and 42K was credit hours for a total of 574.5K pay hours. What I'd love to see is that same breakout for April 2014 but that's not out yet. But it wasn't published in March either. I'm just curious. Last April I flew 72 and was paid 80, this April I flew 40 and was paid 107.

Either way what's the point of your YOY increase in staffing = growth? A 746 total staffing required YOY was met by a 134 net increase with 169 new hires on the list.

At this moment, I defer to Alan Shore

http://shechive.files.wordpress.com/...er-4.jpg?w=500
dude. I totally have a bad one of you. Sex, lies and videotapes... oh when the time is right...

and Sailing. Who needs to get an avatar pic for flying out loud.

Alan Shore 04-27-2014 10:50 AM


Originally Posted by forgot to bid (Post 1631401)
At this moment, I defer to Alan Shore

http://shechive.files.wordpress.com/...er-4.jpg?w=500

At this point, I'm too busy drooling over my former self to answer. :o

Denny Crane 04-27-2014 10:54 AM

FTB,

While the greenslip numbers are pretty astounding, I'm also pretty sure that those numbers are for greenslip duty periods not greenslips total.

Denny

Mesabah 04-27-2014 12:10 PM


Originally Posted by newKnow (Post 1631001)
Ok. I'm just trying to figure out where you are coming from.

So, you are giving us as Delta pilots advice about what we should do, how we should negotiate, and you had hoped the 30% pay cut you took at least went to us, out of the goodness of your heart and have no desire to ever fly for DAL mainline? Ok.

Thanks! But, why do you like us so much? Is it the double breasted jacket and the gold buttons? :D

Well, the money that used to be promised to us has to go somewhere, where do you think it should go?


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