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Originally Posted by firstmob
(Post 1759291)
RFP WB scenario, we trade our 787 order for end of production 777W's and also order some A350's.
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Originally Posted by Mesabah
(Post 1759678)
Hehe, and they are always wrong, so pick higher or lower. I'm thinking lower, but it's a guess based on.... I don't see a materially weaker dollar going forward, QE is done, the Fed will spend at least a decade unwinding the balance sheet, OPEC can pump cheaper than us/will not give up market share, the Asian economy will be exposed for the fraud that it is, alternative energy, Keystone pipeline, no material demand from millennials to replace retiring baby boomers, more efficient cars and aircraft, Delta oil refinery will flood market with cheaper gas since the upside outweighs the losses, I could list hundreds of things.
Speculators are a big one though, they were probably responsible for most of the past run up, so hopefully that is the past. Usually, bubbles take a decade or more to re inflate, so we got that going for us, which is nice. Bottom line, OPEC is losing pricing power. The dollar, fortunately for us is still the standard. Saudi Arabia is leading the charge to $80/barrel. They need the cash flow to keep the camels in the stable. |
Originally Posted by [email protected]
(Post 1759685)
Anyone have any speculation on how a 73 base in Seattle will effect movement westward?
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Originally Posted by scambo1
(Post 1759900)
It'll affect it. Definitely.
Way! :rolleyes: NO WAY! WAY! :rolleyes: What Everrr! |
Originally Posted by scambo1
(Post 1759898)
I tend to agree with you in that there are many intertwined variables. To simply state oil will be higher or lower without mentioning (and internalizing) a laundry list of variables is about as competent as saying something like "I've started planning for retirement, I've been buying $50 worth of lottery tickets every week."
Bottom line, OPEC is losing pricing power. The dollar, fortunately for us is still the standard. Saudi Arabia is leading the charge to $80/barrel. They need the cash flow to keep the camels in the stable. True, but this cycle has been repeating since about two weeks after oil was first discovered in PA. OPEC has had nothing but ups and downs since it started. What really amazed me was the numerous calls that the oil was depleted and we were running out. I think the first time this was a widely held view was about 1880. It was also prevalent after WW-I, and about three times since. If you are interested in truly being knowledgeable about this subject read The Prize, by Daniel Yergin. From The Prize: The director of the United States Bureau of Mines predicted in 1919 that "within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production, and from that time on we will face an ever-increasing decline." No one knows what oil will be selling at next year, let alone for a decade. Not the King of Saudi Arabia, nor the CEO of Exxon-Mobil. Scoop :rolleyes: |
Originally Posted by Mesabah
(Post 1759678)
Hehe, and they are always wrong, so pick higher or lower. I'm thinking lower, but it's a guess based on.... I don't see a materially weaker dollar going forward, QE is done, the Fed will spend at least a decade unwinding the balance sheet, OPEC can pump cheaper than us/will not give up market share, the Asian economy will be exposed for the fraud that it is, alternative energy, Keystone pipeline, no material demand from millennials to replace retiring baby boomers, more efficient cars and aircraft, Delta oil refinery will flood market with cheaper gas since the upside outweighs the losses, I could list hundreds of things.
Speculators are a big one though, they were probably responsible for most of the past run up, so hopefully that is the past. Usually, bubbles take a decade or more to re inflate, so we got that going for us, which is nice. A lot of ifs in there and I haven't spent much time thinking about the effects of each of the points you mentioned. And before I say what I'm about to say I also hope oil prices go lower both personally and professionally. I have a small commodity and currency trading business so I've been day trading RBOB gasoline and E-mini crude oil futures the past few months and it's been a gold mine. At first I was in on the slide and three weeks ago I had to adjust from trend following to counter trend. There are a lot of forces pushing prices both ways at the 76-82 price on crude oil. (Gasoline prices are along for the crude oil ride...I base my technical analysis on crude oil prices but trade both crude and gas.) We have the Middle East and Russian cartels who want the highest price they can get for their crude oil, obviously, and will attempt to control supply to keep prices high. Luckily for us, their dealings with each other through OPEC are as honest and forthright as a guy you might come across at the souk in Cairo, dishonest to say the least. They agree to supply constraints at their OPEC meetings but the house of Saud also has a few thousand royals who have become accustomed to a comfortable lifestyle that is becoming difficult to fund at $80 a barrel....unless they sell more. The new dynamic in the equation is the U.S. Oil supply which has eased the pressure from OPEC, BUT, it also costs our industry money to find the shale oil and retrieve it. From what I've read and heard, $75 a barrel is the number for a sustained oil boom in this country. If oil gets much below that number, the current fracking will continue until those areas are tapped out, but the industry will be less eager to explore new areas for future fracking, pumping, etc. which will drive prices up, etc. With every oil rich country on the same side of the table at $75 a barrel oil, I am expecting oil to bounce around the $75-$85 a barrel price until something bad happens and prices go back up above that. If oil goes below $75 a barrel, I don't expect it to stay there for long. But there is no shortage of oil either and everyone knows it so if it goes back above $85 a barrel, I don't expect it to stay there long either, barring a black swan event. ( ISIS blowing up some wells in Iraq, for example.) Have a great weekend, E |
Originally Posted by Dorfman
(Post 1759861)
There is also a number of west coast types that commute to MSP on the 88 and 320. I would expect those guys to head back west to either SLC or SEA.
Might finally be some movement west of the Mississippi |
Originally Posted by Scoop
(Post 1759767)
I don't know who are referring to but assume it is GSZG?
I for one really appreciate his point of view. Right or wrong, there is absolutely nothing wrong with someone pointing out "worse-case scenarios." We would be fools to assume that our profit sharing is "off the table." Lets plan for the worse, while hoping for the best. I would much rather have us go into negotiations looking at every possible scenario then going in to negotiations looking through rose colored glasses. Some guy are kool-aide drinkers. Some guys are rabble-rousers. I prefer to hear both points of view and make up my own mind. Scoop :) I was about to say the exact same thing about Jerry. Now PD on the other hand has a negative comment about everything. But We need guys like Jerry to keep some of us from getting complacent and accepting another 4-8-3-3 after 10 years of substandard pay after billions of givebacks and record profits. Your comments and opinions are welcome here, Jerry. |
Did C12 have some positive aspects? Sure.
Did we leave an awful lot of money and time off on the table? With the benefit of hindsight, only an idiot or a liar would say "no." Let's make sure we don't leave one red cent or second off on the table this time. Let's get Sleepy Ed hooked on Ambien. |
Originally Posted by RetiredFTS
(Post 1759940)
Is MSP considered west of the Mississippi?
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