Airline Pilot Central Forums - Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?

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Wow. Just checked out the reserve availability list for DTW 320B tomorrow. I see a guy with a RAW of 197!! I hope he had vacation!!! :eek:

Quote:

Originally Posted by buzzpat (Post 875715)

Hey ACL, keep working that AS rumor. I like it!!

Not working a rumor, just stating that I would not see a drop in any routes or growth plans because of it. They are good feed for us on the Left Coast. We probably want to keep it that way.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnso29 (Post 875703)

What about you Bro? You moving to ATL? Staying EADS or going McD down south? :)

Still moving to ATL and still on the bus in DTW. It's good to hear that you guys had a qualifier in for 85%. Hopefully that means there will be some guys coming in behind us. I looked at MEM, but Super talked me out of it.

I enjoy commuting to reserve so much that I decided not to bid ATL :D

Actually, I'm still frozen until the next bid :mad:

Quote:

Originally Posted by acl65pilot (Post 875464)

Here is the Inflation YOY since 2004:
Historical Inflation data from 1914 to the present

Put the link so you can verify the source

2004: 2.68
2005: 3.39
2006: 3.24
2007: 2.85
2008: 3.85
2009: -0.34

For a grand total of 15.67% total inflation since the start of 2004. (liner non compounding math used.) Compounding annually equals about 16.61%

So what you are asking for on Jan 1, 2013 is this:
Lets use 2012 777/744A pay and compare it to 2004 C2K 777 pay of 319 an hr

319-225= 94 dollars per hr up front plus a 15.67% increase on the 319 figure to equal 368.99 per hr from our book of 225, or a 64% increase, correct? (or 65%)

Math 319-225= 94 bump plus inflation=
319x 1.1567=368.99 per hr (or the other way 371.99 per hr)
368.99-225.00= 143.99 per hr immediate increase. (371.99-225= 146.99)

Lets just extrapolate that out a little as well. 5% last year was equal to 90 million. 4% next year is equal to 75 million. Without computing the non-linear data for the next two pay bumps that would equate to a 18-18.75 million dollar per percent increase in the total value of the PWA without costing out more retirement and or work rule improvements.

We on the same page?

We will use 18 million for a uber conservative estimate on pay costs alone.
18 x 64= 1.152 billion dollar increase to the PWA for hourly rates alone (or 18 x 65= 1.170 billion)

This is public math and I am doing it by had, but you get the point of what that is correct? It will equate to the total profit we will make this year and some more if we make another 600 million this year.

Before we discuss the merits and positions of the proposal I want to ask you a few questions:

1)How long you think it will take to get the company and a mediator to agree to releasing us for this amount on day one? five, six, seven years?

2)What is the inflationary rate going to do over this period now that we are coming out of a high debt recession for the us government?

3)How strong do you think these guys that will retire in 2019-2020 and before are going to be given that they may never see a penny of this?

4)Do you think that 50% of this group that will retire in that time frame is going to take a more pragmatic approach that will most definitely put more money in their pocket now so they can invest it correctly in a boom cycle?

5) Where do you see the economy in this time frame (2017-2020) given our boom/bust cycle? Do you see it as an era that will allow an end game to be played out?

6) Who is going to be in the White House?

7) Is foreign ownership going to change the game completely?

Just questions I want answered before I sign on to any proposal?

To answer your questions:

1) Who knows? If we insist on the entire amount on day one, probably a long time. But that's not what I'm advocating. I just want to make significant progress towards restoration over the life of the contract. Of course I'd like to get it all back up front, but that's probably not going to happen. So I would like to see a pretty good bump (at least 30%?) on the first year, followed by maybe something like 5% bumps each year over a 4 or 5 year period. The compounding effect of that makes significant progress towards restoration.

2) Again, who knows? The last time we sold ourselves short by accepting a token pay increase and effectively extending our emergency/BK buying power out all the way to 2012... because we were being told oil prices were going to go through the roof and the entire economic sky was going to fall (remember "too big to fail... gotta have a seat at the bailout table"?), it didn't work out so well for us. Let's not keep making the same mistakes! Forecasting the economy is something that many very smart people have tried to do for a very long time. No one has ever proven that they can do it consistently. I don't want our pay restoration restricted by what somebody sees in their "crystal ball", because it may or may not be right! Like I said before, we've already been down that road. I think we screwed ourselves. Let's not do that again.

3) You seem to be making the assumption that a contract with significant restoration will take inordinate amounts of time to negotiate. I think it's kind of the same thing as predicting the economy. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. No way to know for sure. Nobody ever said any of this would be easy.

In the meantime, I think our objective should be restoration... not acceptance of our profession going forward being worth little more than HALF of what it has traditionally been worth... just because it's going to be hard and might take a little longer than we want. At the moment, we don't even seem to have an identifiable objective. Don't you think that's a problem?

4) Investors in general are irrational... pilots as investors maybe even more so. :D

5), 6), & 7) See #2 above.

DAL88;
I do not think that not having a clear stated goal 15 months before the earliest we can submit an opener is an issue. I would be quite concerned at the amendable date. With AMR, UAUA/CAL both at the table it would be quite foolish and limiting to state anything today. It would just be rhetoric that would suffer issue fatigue well in before we needed our group to peak.

Quote:

Originally Posted by acl65pilot (Post 875717)

Not working a rumor, just stating that I would not see a drop in any routes or growth plans because of it. They are good feed for us on the Left Coast. We probably want to keep it that way.

I would say a "good replacement" for us on the Left Coast. I still think we should do all the flying on the Left coast and let AirTran do the flying on the Right coast.:D Delta can't figure out why the margin is so low on the west coast when we have virtually no real DL code doing the feed. I guess I could move to ATL so I could quit my complaining. Ah, but then these forums would be so boring.

BD

I truly believe full restoration will never happen. I will be happy if we become the highest paid pilots in the U.S. Our narrow-body pilots should make more than Southwest pilots. The bigger aircraft should be adjusted accordingly.

Bigdaddie; All in due time. FWIW, ATL has finally gotten rationalized and is no longer doing every other bases flying. If you recall we lost 430 or so wb slots a few bids ago. We are still in quite a deficit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by acl65pilot (Post 875742)

I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing here. I agree that we don't want to put an exact number to it at this point. But, in general, we should make it clear that our objective is restoration and that we have NOT accepted our current situation as some kind of new baseline from which we would seek more traditional improvements. Unfortunately, this MEC under LM has telegraphed to everyone that the latter is exactly what we have accepted. The publicly released Chairman's Letter from yesterday is a prime example. I don't think it's true that this is what we have accepted as a pilot group, but it is the tone that is being set by LM. This can only work against us as we begin to negotiate the next contract.

We need a clearly stated objective (a "mission statement") that lets everyone concerned know that restoration is our objective and that works to rally our pilot group behind this objective. This basic concept of an effective mission statement has been proven essential to any successful business or organization.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeineLodge (Post 875731)

Jeez! You're still frozen? Man I thought that was done by now. :(