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AMR shares slump, analyst says bankruptcy likely
Shares of American Airlines parent AMR slump as bankruptcy speculation grows
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SymbolPriceChangeAMR2.69-0.19
David Koenig, AP Airlines Writer, On Friday October 21, 2011, 4:52 pm
DALLAS (AP) -- Shares of American Airlines parent AMR Corp. fell Friday, and an analyst predicted the company will wind up in bankruptcy unless it gets a break from lenders or more cash.
The shares dropped 19 cents, or 6.6 percent, to close at $2.69 and fell as low as $2.59 during the session.
Other major U.S. airline stocks also fell, as higher oil prices signaled rising jet fuel costs, but they declined less than half as much as AMR.
Morningstar analyst Basili Alukos said AMR has a "bloated cost structure" and limited ability to raise new cash. He predicted that AMR's unrestricted cash balance will fall from $4.3 billion to $1.2 billion by the end of 2012.
"Unless AMR receives a substantial cash infusion or earns loan forbearance, we believe the company will eventually succumb to financial distress," Alukos wrote Friday in a note to clients.
On Wednesday AMR reported that it lost $162 million in the third quarter, its fourth straight losing quarter and 14th out of the last 16. Revenue increased on higher fares, but not enough to cover rising fuel costs.
The company hopes to begin controlling runaway costs by negotiating a deal with union pilots that would include more flying hours and other changes. It argues that its annual labor costs are $600 million to $800 million higher than those at other airlines.
"We know we need to improve our financial results and we're working hard to achieve that," said AMR spokesman Sean Collins.
The company's task will get slightly easier as debt repayments ease over the next two years. AMR faced $2.5 billion in debt maturities this year. That will fall to $1.8 billion next year and $1 billion in 2013, officials said.
Other analysts have been guarded but less pessimistic than Alukos about AMR's prospects. They think the company has enough cash for now, although they warn that a deeper economic slump or a spike in fuel prices could quickly raise the threat of bankruptcy.
Hunter Keay, an analyst for Wolfe Trahan & Co., was typical in his comments that AMR's obligations, including $560 million in pension contributions next year, are "manageable ... probably."
Airline revenue has held up well in the face of a weak economy. The airlines have raised fares several times, and planes were mostly full over the summer. Analysts still expect a slowdown in demand at some point.
Shares of American Airlines parent AMR slump as bankruptcy speculation grows
Related Quotes
SymbolPriceChangeAMR2.69-0.19
David Koenig, AP Airlines Writer, On Friday October 21, 2011, 4:52 pm
DALLAS (AP) -- Shares of American Airlines parent AMR Corp. fell Friday, and an analyst predicted the company will wind up in bankruptcy unless it gets a break from lenders or more cash.
The shares dropped 19 cents, or 6.6 percent, to close at $2.69 and fell as low as $2.59 during the session.
Other major U.S. airline stocks also fell, as higher oil prices signaled rising jet fuel costs, but they declined less than half as much as AMR.
Morningstar analyst Basili Alukos said AMR has a "bloated cost structure" and limited ability to raise new cash. He predicted that AMR's unrestricted cash balance will fall from $4.3 billion to $1.2 billion by the end of 2012.
"Unless AMR receives a substantial cash infusion or earns loan forbearance, we believe the company will eventually succumb to financial distress," Alukos wrote Friday in a note to clients.
On Wednesday AMR reported that it lost $162 million in the third quarter, its fourth straight losing quarter and 14th out of the last 16. Revenue increased on higher fares, but not enough to cover rising fuel costs.
The company hopes to begin controlling runaway costs by negotiating a deal with union pilots that would include more flying hours and other changes. It argues that its annual labor costs are $600 million to $800 million higher than those at other airlines.
"We know we need to improve our financial results and we're working hard to achieve that," said AMR spokesman Sean Collins.
The company's task will get slightly easier as debt repayments ease over the next two years. AMR faced $2.5 billion in debt maturities this year. That will fall to $1.8 billion next year and $1 billion in 2013, officials said.
Other analysts have been guarded but less pessimistic than Alukos about AMR's prospects. They think the company has enough cash for now, although they warn that a deeper economic slump or a spike in fuel prices could quickly raise the threat of bankruptcy.
Hunter Keay, an analyst for Wolfe Trahan & Co., was typical in his comments that AMR's obligations, including $560 million in pension contributions next year, are "manageable ... probably."
Airline revenue has held up well in the face of a weak economy. The airlines have raised fares several times, and planes were mostly full over the summer. Analysts still expect a slowdown in demand at some point.
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2008
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From: DAL FO
Runs with scissors
Joined: Dec 2009
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From: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
Hey...it's Friday, right?
I wish I knew how to imbed pictures, maybe one of you can do it, but here's a link worth looking at on a Friday.
LFL’s Orlando Fantasy Making Dreams Come True lingerie-football ? Larry Brown Sports
I wish I knew how to imbed pictures, maybe one of you can do it, but here's a link worth looking at on a Friday.
LFL’s Orlando Fantasy Making Dreams Come True lingerie-football ? Larry Brown Sports
Gets Weekends Off
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From: MD88A
ethnotekbags - Ballistic-Black 1 THREAD? + Laptop Compatible Travel Backpack
I have been beta testing this bag for some months and fits everything (including other bags) into it well and fits with the 88/90.
Last edited by sevenfiveseven; 10-21-2011 at 02:08 PM.
Runs with scissors
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From: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
It's about 120 questions, plus some -up to 750 character- comment boxes. It took me an hour and a half, I timed it, and I was going quickly except when I got to the "Comment" boxes, which I filled up each and every one, all 750 characters each, so that slowed me down a little.
Still, why -wouldn't- anyone spend 90 minutes on this, vs. watching... Pan Am??

How did you guys miss posting this story last week??
I've never had the Urge (so to speak) to jump out of a perfectly good airplane but here's a reason I might be temepted...
http://www.kget.com/news/local/story...9rrcF9TmQ.cspx
Last edited by Timbo; 10-21-2011 at 03:44 PM. Reason: sp
Gets Weekends Off
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I got a better exercise for you Alfa, chill out.
And then explain why you think it is a bad idea to require those hired to fly the line to return to the line after going off line (management/training, union) or forfeit their number after a certain point.
If you don't think this is a problem then you should not have a problem with it being put on paper, eh?
Reminds me of the request to put it in writing that there will be no more scope concessions. The argument against putting it in writing is that ALPA promises there won't be concessions but to actually put it in writing is a bad negotiating tactic.
And then explain why you think it is a bad idea to require those hired to fly the line to return to the line after going off line (management/training, union) or forfeit their number after a certain point.
If you don't think this is a problem then you should not have a problem with it being put on paper, eh?
Reminds me of the request to put it in writing that there will be no more scope concessions. The argument against putting it in writing is that ALPA promises there won't be concessions but to actually put it in writing is a bad negotiating tactic.
So you are the one who should chill out. Or at least try to base your statements on even the tiniest amount on facts. By the way, flying the line is vastly superior to doing union work. It's much easier to throw tomatoes than it is to be in the ring.
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