Funk

Conversation with top men is that February and March are both planned for 40 new hires, which puts the classes in the low teens when you have three in a month. The total for April hasn’t been decided yet.

Further rumor is that almost everyone below the CFO understands that carrying extra pilots by running onboarding and training at a reasonable level, and having them earn the inexpensive first year pay, is a cheap and easy way to avoid expensive pilot shortages later when retirements pick up and the training pipeline doesn’t accelerate like a Tesla in ludicrous mode and spit out ready pilots on demand. Lack of familiarity with how onboarding and training actually works makes this too much of an academic, far away problem for said senior leader. Pretty much need a penguin to fall off the iceberg before he’ll allow another to climb aboard.

Denny Crane

For someone to reach the level of CFO..........he cannot be stupid. I’m sure he has been informed of the timeline necessary to bring new pilots on the line. If he hasn’t, someone else has dropped the ball. I suspect there are other considerations he is juggling along with this problem.

Yes, it could jump up bite Delta in the tookus. But, hey, if it happens, on the good side greenslips will be abundant!

Denny

Funk

I’ll grant that the CFO ought to be a pretty sharp cookie, fully capable of analyzing and weighing data to make the best possible decisions. I also grant that inadequate planning may benefit some in the pilot group with some flush paychecks.

That said, one doesn’t need to look far amongst the smartest people you know to still see dumb decisions because they hold onto preconceived notions, ignore data that is inconvenient, or just aren’t all that interested in some questions or problems. My favorite unknowable question that everyone (OK, just a lot of super opinionated keyboard ninjas) seems to know for sure that they’re right on and everyone else is wrong is whether Delta ought or ought not to have 787s in its network.

As for the green slip lottery, I would say that while everyone loves a green slip, it isn’t necessarily the best thing for the pilot group or the company. The existence of a green slip, and certainly lots of green slips, represents an opportunity cost where: 1) more pilots are not employed by the company such that a shortage exists and a green slip is necessary. 2) the system, our brand, and therefore, our profit sharing checks, or even the growth of our regular checks, all face risks when the company has to waive cash around in order to keep us from failing to safely move people around in a reliable and timely manner. Again, everyone loves getting a green slip, but it isn’t without risk or opportunity cost.

There may be other relevant considerations, but I have yet to hear of any that really answer why we shouldn’t just keep onboarding pilots at a steady clip as an inexpensive shock absorber for manning and stay ahead of the retirement waves.

Denny Crane

Trust me. I pretty much agree with all you said.

With all the retirements in the next 5-7 years, mine included, it's gonna be training nightmare anyway. But adding new aircraft to the fleet that are growth will make it darn near impossible. The Company should be adding pilots now to cover that sure thing...

Denny

notEnuf

They can't ask for (and get) productivity enhancements unless we have a crisis to solve that justifies the give.

Squallrider

What’s the current situation? Interviews going out? Classes sizes / times per month?

Aviator147

just heard interview invites went out for August.... Im shocked if thats how far out the next batches of interviews will be.

Vector Victor

Are you sure it wasn’t Indoc invites for August CJOs?

Lifeisgood

Slow interviews for March - about 4 candidates per interview day.
Double of that for April - May.

All I heard.

DWC CAP10 USAF

Indoc classes are 2-3 per month, but only 40 per month total for Jan-Mar.