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Old 06-13-2013, 06:52 AM
  #371  
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Hello Everyone,

A question for Delta people from an outsider who has been trying to get hired since 2007 (which was when I was first minimally competitive). I work for a 'national' airline and have a couple thousand hours on the MD-80. I've always been convinced Delta is where I would like to retire. However, from the perspective of many of the 30 to 40 year old captains that I fly with, who are already in the left seat making around 140k a year here; what is your best guess at the upgrade time on the most junior equipment and base would be for an early 2014 new hire.

Thanks to all in advance for any insight, if I ever figure out how to land the MD-80, I'll be the first to let everyone know...

-Lucky
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Old 06-13-2013, 07:38 AM
  #372  
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Originally Posted by Lucky Pierre007 View Post
Hello Everyone,

A question for Delta people from an outsider who has been trying to get hired since 2007 (which was when I was first minimally competitive). I work for a 'national' airline and have a couple thousand hours on the MD-80. I've always been convinced Delta is where I would like to retire. However, from the perspective of many of the 30 to 40 year old captains that I fly with, who are already in the left seat making around 140k a year here; what is your best guess at the upgrade time on the most junior equipment and base would be for an early 2014 new hire.

Thanks to all in advance for any insight, if I ever figure out how to land the MD-80, I'll be the first to let everyone know...

-Lucky
Probably the 717 in either ATL or DTW. Maybe the M88 in NYC. Upgrades of course are gonna be dependent on retirements and or growth (don't the rest of you guys laugh too hard on THAT), but NY and DTW are the most junior bases. I am premerger DAL and one of my newhire classmates bid captain on the 717 and is not in the top 10. I am around 4600 of 11,000 pilots. I think that is an anomaly though because of the training and all that, the guys that bid it are thinking of taking the summer off. But we have a lot of retirements coming down the pike, so in the next few years there should be pretty good movement even if there is little growth. I know that doesn't answer your question completely, but I hope it helps.
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Old 06-13-2013, 09:00 AM
  #373  
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Originally Posted by tsquare View Post
Probably the 717 in either ATL or DTW. Maybe the M88 in NYC. Upgrades of course are gonna be dependent on retirements and or growth (don't the rest of you guys laugh too hard on THAT), but NY and DTW are the most junior bases. I am premerger DAL and one of my newhire classmates bid captain on the 717 and is not in the top 10. I am around 4600 of 11,000 pilots. I think that is an anomaly though because of the training and all that, the guys that bid it are thinking of taking the summer off. But we have a lot of retirements coming down the pike, so in the next few years there should be pretty good movement even if there is little growth. I know that doesn't answer your question completely, but I hope it helps.
I'll slap a guestimate year range on it assuming retirements and no growth, a 2013 hire would likely be plug capt on the 717 in 2019-2020.

Am I out on a limb there?
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Old 06-13-2013, 09:10 AM
  #374  
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Originally Posted by scambo1 View Post
I'll slap a guestimate year range on it assuming retirements and no growth, a 2013 hire would likely be plug capt on the 717 in 2019-2020.

Am I out on a limb there?

I don't think so. We are gonna retire over half the list in the next 15-20 years. Barring, well everything that's happened in the last 10, from happening again, I would say those hired in the front of this wave will do quite well in terms of seat progression.
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:19 PM
  #375  
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Originally Posted by scambo1 View Post
I'll slap a guestimate year range on it assuming retirements and no growth, a 2013 hire would likely be plug capt on the 717 in 2019-2020.

Am I out on a limb there?
A 6 yr upgrade? We're currently @ 15+. Things are going to turn around that quickly? I sure hope so.

When can I hold a senior ER line? 2025? I've slid back on EVERY AE since I started on the ER.

Baja.
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Old 06-13-2013, 03:24 PM
  #376  
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Originally Posted by Going2Baja View Post
A 6 yr upgrade? We're currently @ 15+. Things are going to turn around that quickly? I sure hope so.

When can I hold a senior ER line? 2025? I've slid back on EVERY AE since I started on the ER.

Baja.
The past is no indication of future movement, for better or for worse.

Look no further than the junior captain at SWA vs. the estimate for the last SWA pilot hired, or the junior captain at US Airways vs. the 20+ year upgrades at AA/US through the 90s until last year.
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Old 06-13-2013, 06:46 PM
  #377  
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Originally Posted by contrails View Post
The past is no indication of future movement, for better or for worse.

Look no further than the junior captain at SWA vs. the estimate for the last SWA pilot hired, or the junior captain at US Airways vs. the 20+ year upgrades at AA/US through the 90s until last year.
A pilot who gets it! Welcome to the minority.
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Old 06-13-2013, 06:51 PM
  #378  
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Originally Posted by Lucky Pierre007 View Post
Hello Everyone,

A question for Delta people from an outsider who has been trying to get hired since 2007 (which was when I was first minimally competitive). I work for a 'national' airline and have a couple thousand hours on the MD-80. I've always been convinced Delta is where I would like to retire. However, from the perspective of many of the 30 to 40 year old captains that I fly with, who are already in the left seat making around 140k a year here; what is your best guess at the upgrade time on the most junior equipment and base would be for an early 2014 new hire.

Thanks to all in advance for any insight, if I ever figure out how to land the MD-80, I'll be the first to let everyone know...

-Lucky
From a cursory check (there could be someone more junior somewhere), junior captain is is around 8150. Assuming 11000 pilots and no growth or shrinkage, that's about 2850 from the bottom. Thru Dec. 2020 we have 2327 age 65 retirements.

As an early 2014 hire and bidding captain at the first possible time in any base, you are probably looking at 2021-2023. So, at most around 9 possibly 10 years (if you assume 11500 pilots currently which is probably closer than 11000). As others said, probably NYC M88 or DTW 717 will be junior categories.

Denny

Last edited by Denny Crane; 06-13-2013 at 06:59 PM. Reason: Trying to get my numbers "more right!"
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Old 06-13-2013, 10:44 PM
  #379  
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Originally Posted by scambo1 View Post
I'll slap a guestimate year range on it assuming retirements and no growth, a 2013 hire would likely be plug capt on the 717 in 2019-2020.

Am I out on a limb there?
I'll agree with that if we can reign in the JV deals and keep widebody jobs at Delta. I've got a buddy in NYC that lives there. Somebody like that who gets hired in 2014 and wants NYC will see virtually no time on reserve as an FO and probably upgrade on the 88 within 5 years. The next big wave of newhires at DAL are gonna hit the goldmine on seniority progression. 99-01 guys got totally screwed.....07-08 and 10 guys probably about average for movement.
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Old 06-14-2013, 07:30 AM
  #380  
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Somebody like that who gets hired in 2014 and wants NYC will see virtually no time on reserve as an FO and probably upgrade on the 88 within 5 years.
Hope you're right! That would be great for us older military pilots. My wife is NYC based so that would be perfect!
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