MrMustache

What about this line?
However, we expect the surpluses to be more than offset by 717 and 73N Captain vacancies

TenYearsGone

Also, they mentioned that the (7er) displacements will be offset by more than enough 717/m88 upgrades. Keep your fingers crossed.

TEN

80ktsClamp

Connect the dots. 7ER fos are going to go to other widebody FO positions or go to CA.

daldude

Yes they did say they hoped to offset displacement with 717 and 737 upgrades. But if it is similar to the last bid, they will not back fill the Capt's that move over to different Capt position or the senior FO's that move to Capt positions. So in essence it is a downward bid for the bottom half of the list. I hope I am explaining it correctly.

Let me give and example: A 330 Capt moves to a MD88 capt vacancy (for what ever reason) through the AE process. In an Ideal world some one would move into his place thus creating movement. But what happened last bid was they did not fill the 330 capt position.

Or

777 FO moves into MD88 Capt position. Ideally they would move an ER FO into 777 FO and 737 FO into ER FO and so forth, But they are choosing to not back fill the 777 FO position. It is a very transparent way to displace or at least have reward movement in the bottom half of the list.

That is how you fill 110 capt vacancies only filled with 70 FO's I would expect more of the same in the future.

daldude

Actually on the last bid the vast majority of 7ER B's moved to 737 B's or laterally to 7ER B's in other bases. Because the company failed to back fill the Capt positions that moved to different Capt positions and the senior FO's on the 330 and 777 that moved to Capt position.

johnso29

Slide #19 from the annual investors day conference at the end of 2012. The mainline fleet is scheduled to grow by 70-75(I can't recall the exact number) airplanes over the next several years. Actually, the domestic fleet is scheduled to be at 675 airframes by the end of 2015. That's just the domestic fleet.

johnso29

I see at least 40 7ER FOs that went to a higher paying position. I wouldn't call 60% a vast majority.

Columbia

Cool, so about 1,500 new hires in the same time. Add in retirements an we're looking at the list growing by about 2,000 by the end of '16.

johnso29

We staff 20 pilots per plane?

daldude

You are correct that is what the slide said. I have a few thoughts--

1. I have know idea how many 320, 757 and other airframes they plan to remove from service. I only know that up until now all they talk about is removing pilots from 75/76 to fund growth.

2. We have know idea how fat we are in pilots. All crew resources says is we have "a surplus of pilots at a system level we have to utilize our existing pilot staffing"(July crew resources new letter)

3. We also know that according to the July crew resources news letter they anticipate March being the busiest month of flying in 2014 and that the June bid set them up to cover that month. Once again leading me to believe they have enough pilots.

So with all that said, they very well may hire pilots but the letters and corospondance they are putting out say they have plenty of pilots and intend to staff the airline with the "system level surplus of pilots".

I am not saying they are not going to hire all I'm saying is that Crew Resources have not said they are going to hire and continue to say we have a surplus of pilots.