Yes there is still 1 left to call from 4/21.....SS# starts with a 0XXX. Also 1 Mil deferral

 

Greetings,
here is the latest and greatest. I keep waiting for a recall vote for "spreadsheet updater."

Does anyone have info on the 7/20 class. I had thought that it was 16 SSP (Endeavor) and 14 OTS, but I don't have any numbers or data from any interviewee class getting that date.

Anyway, updated numbers on Compass and Endeavor for the remainder of the year. If my memories serves, there were two big class surges in 2014 one in June/July and a second in Aug/Sep where they were putting through 125 in class (Sep). So who knows what will happen this year.

badger



https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/83383582/Dal%20Poolie%20info%20expected%20INDOC%20dates.PNG

 

I believe DAL was expecting the TA to pass, and has been slowing down hiring in anticipation of the significantly reduced staffing it would have enabled. I may be wrong, but I expect an uptick soon.

 

I hope you are right. Any more details/numbers behind the theory?

 

Hope so - but there's also quite a training backlog. There are 7ER guys waiting 6-12 weeks for IOE, currently.

 

8/17 is only about 10 OTS right now and about 15 SSP.

 

Gents I'm a 26 May CJO. Looking at the spreadsheet, looks like 135 poolies ahead of me and based of current training tempo that would probably put me around a Dec or Jan indoc class. I'm scheduled to separate from the AF 15 Aug but thinking about requesting to extend that to 1 Dec. I have 60+ days of terminal so that would make my avail around 1 Oct. I really don't want to defer so looking for thoughts. Please anyone with a crystal ball speak up !

 

None of the manning issues has anything to do with the TA. Just like the last TA the company is not planning any manning change from the TA. We lost in some areas on manning and gained in others. Delta has almost every year in a hiring cycle slowed the hiring in the summer months to maximize pilots flying the line. This year was worse because of marketing adding summer flying last Dec. The company did a emergency bump in the hiring last winter to keep the 757 staffed for the new hours. The net hiring plan for all of 16 has not changed one pilot. We will be overstaffed for the winter on many airframes with the huge reduction in winter block hours. The 757/767 fleet will drop 30%.
The great unknown at the moment is the fate of the 190's and additional 737's. The 190's would have required an additional 600 plus pilots for 50 airframes with hiring for those airframes to start late fall. Perhaps we will know tomorrow at the earnings call the plan for those airframes. The drop in summer hiring is normal and will probably happen again next summer.

 

Who cares about the 190s and the 737's would be years out and 757 replacements anyways.

Cut the crap, Mr. Bad Data.

 

With 100 new hires and 50 swaps/upgrades a month, conservatively that's about 7,500 hours of OE a month. The TA allowed the company to hold back 75% of those from bidding from the FOs, and though the staffing model wouldn't have changed, this would allow a slowdown in hiring to achieve that staffing model and still fill lines (we're way behind the staffing model already). With a bit of LCA re-allocation to take full advantage of the 75% holdback, that's 5,625 fewer hours to cover, which means 85 fewer pilots (assuming 20% reserves).

TA added one hour to the Average Line Value (number of hours a lineholder flew in a month). Figuring 8000 lineholders, that's 80,000 hours more flown, requiring roughly 120 fewer pilots.

Other efficiencies were expected from sick leave and scope concessions. I don't know what those were, but you can bet there was a good estimate and that they were significant, or DAL wouldn't have negotiated them. For Ha-Has, let's say that was worth only 10 pilots. I think it was worth a lot more.

Other brilliance in there as well. Big raise up front, but nothing towards retirement (until a whopping 1% increase in 401k in 2017). Incentive for older pilots to hang till 65. Fewer retirements = fewer new hires needed. There are about 1900 pilots currently 59-64 years old. Let's say just over 10% of them (200) are considering retiring early this year. Do ya think an immediate 8% raise, but then essentially flatline after that, might convince them to hang for another year or two, but not too long? If it works for 20% of them, that's another 40 pilots we don't need to hire this year.

Oh, and fewer pilots means even more efficiencies, because that means I can send some of my SLIs back to the line (which many SLIs had been told to expect).

Added all together, my admittedly-soggy spitball says we would have needed to hire about 250 fewer pilots in the immediate future. I think the company was hoping for even better results.