Ain't it great to have tsquare back with us?

Carl

 

2014 DAL

Q1 $444 million
Q2 $1.4
Q3 $1.6
Q4 $1.1
Total $4.5

2015 DAL

Q1 $594 million
Q2 estimate $1.9
Q3 estimate $2.2
Q4 estimate $1.5

2015 total estimate $6.2

American 2015 Q1 $1.4 billion
Q2 estimate $3.3
Q3 estimate $3.8
Q4 estimate $1.9

2015 total estimate $10.4

Delta will easily clear $10 billion in 2016 with no hedging like American this year. Our domestic economy will be much stronger in 2016. More people working and higher wages. Much more leisure and business travel.

2016 profit sharing 40%. No debt 2017 and beyond. Same strong U.S. Economy, same oligopoly. 40% year after year.

What's the rush?

1) management does not want us to see American's Q2 profits.

2) once we see these numbers concessions will be harder to extract

Wind the watch.

 

That's exactly why the company wants this done ASAP.

 

Does $10 billion really equal 40% profit sharing? I'm not disputing that it does, just interested in seeing the math. The formula seems like black magic to me.

 

In my opinion yes. That's what is great about these forums. Any BS gets challenged.

I believe it to be within 1%.

We have to remember is varies on what we make vs our fellow employees. Our portion will increase significantly with C2015 increased hourly rates that exceed American's. So my estimate is 41%.

2015 24.5% based on $6.2 billion profit.

 

bingo..at my previous gig (AA) there was a hard sell to get it done fast before results where released. Now look how much they posted this quarter. I'm hoping being new here, that things slow down and we take the time to really make sure we know what we are dealing with before we give up any kind of PS.

 

The math is actually easy. On the first 2.5 billion we get 10% or 250 million. On the rest it's 20%. Which would be 1.5 billion. Total to the employees would be 1.75 billion. To get a very rough idea of what that would pay you each 135 million is worth about 2% in pay.
That comes out to about 26%.
I am not sure where Jerry gets 40% on 10 billion in profits. I suspect he is looking at net not PTIX numbers and is trying to ratio it out. If the net profit were 10 billion and the PTIX were 15 billion then 40% would be in the ballpark.
There is one other important point with our profit sharing. Unlike other airlines it is fully pensionable so each pilot gets 15% on top of the PS number. If a pilot receives 50k in profit sharing a additional 7,500 would go to the pilots DC plan for a total of 57,500.

 

The formula are in the contract AFAIK. Can you jot down some numbers for us to show us where you came up with this? Not saying you are wrong, but I'd like to see how you came up with 41%.

The issue I would see is how much ruckus the institutional investors would raise if the pilots were getting 40% of the profits of the company. Frankly I don't see that as sustainable. So here we go. The just say no crowd is gonna say that we just hold out unil we get better payrates. OK, fine. Let's do that. Meanwhile our PS is based on current rates. Somewhere the line of pay increase of X% will cross with profit sharing and that is when we can reasonably expect the company to cave. So in essence, we would be funding our pay increases with the profit sharing by doing nothing. Before ya'll get your panties twisted, I am not advocating monetizing it outside of section 6 or that we need to "rush" to a deal. I am simply saying that if we do nothing, we have in effect monetized it. So how do you reconcile it? At what point is making a deal important?

 

You are way off. We made $4.5 billion last year and what percentage did we get?

That was with only $2 billion at the 20% level of PS. Now add $5.5 billion additional at 20%.

That makes no sense.

 

This is exactly right.

I think guys really need to look at this and understand just what it means.