Originally Posted by BATOL

I agree. The long time on reserve and long upgrades and seniority stagnation that Yum and others refer to was a result of a conflagration of conditions the likes of which are unlikely to ever occur in conjunction again. In short they are: the age 65 rule change; the 2nd worst economic downturn in US history; and merging of three pilot seniority lists and subsequent training bubble and bankruptcy of the company.

Any one of those things is entirely likely to happen again in this industry. But the likelihood of them ALL occurring again, at the same time, to the same company is basically nil.

The age change was the biggest driver of that stagnation and that's now in the past. Just look at the retirement lists at the majors and it's plainly obvious that movement will be the norm, not the exception for at least the next 10 years. Even if all major airlines where to shrink capacity, they would still have to hire to compensate for attrition. Sure, they might lose 10 and hire 7, but they're still hiring. I don't think we'll see furloughs and back sliding anytime in the foreseeable future. Any shrinkage will just be accomplished through attrition. If the FAA where to change the rule to age 67 or do away with it all together I don't honestly think it would make a significant difference in pilot demand. Most of the guys in their 60's planned to retire at 60 or 65 so they should be in good shape. Most of them will still opt to spend those years on their boat.

The economic downturn is the most likely of the three factors, but again with the retirements coming we can weather pretty drastic cuts in capacity without stopping hiring at the majors. In addition, the population is growing again (Millenials outnumber baby boomers now) and demand will rise with population. The biggest threat here is top end scope, the Arab state subsidized carriers, and operations like NAI. I would suggest we all consider backing the ALPA PAC, even if you're not exactly thrilled with ALPA itself. The PAC is separate and is focused on lobbying for us in Washington.

Finally will there be more airline bankruptcies and mergers? Is the Pope Catholic? But again, without the other two factors also coming into play, it is unlikely that it would lead to furloughs or massive stagnation. It is also highly unlikely that it will be YOUR airline. The big ones are in pretty good shape and have figured out how to do this profitably. Consolidation has virtually ended the aggressive price wars of the 90's, and airplanes are incredibly fuel efficient now compared to 10 years ago. And as we know, most of the airline bankruptcies where shams anyway. It may not stop as a business practice, but when you are applying to your next airline, I'd suggest looking at their financials. A company with billions in the bank is pretty hard to put through a sham bankruptcy.

So no the sky is not falling and it is highly unlikely that it will anytime soon, at least not to anything like the extent that we have experienced in the past six or seven years.

Originally Posted by BATOL

In return, ALPA will allow Endeavor more control of the OE scheduling process and count on earlier report times for pilots.

Originally Posted by Arvik

Does this mean a shorter reserve callout time?

Originally Posted by Arvik

Does this mean a shorter reserve callout time?

Originally Posted by AirHun

Can anyone clarify the changes to commuting in on a reserve day? As I understand it you need to be in base prior to your first practical show time if called.

So, if on P2 reserve at JFK, and P2 starts at 10:00 am and you have a 2 hour call out, you would need to be in base by noon.

Am I close?