Compensation is a function of many things but current first officers aren't making $39. They are making $39 for at least 900 hours and $20,000 bonus. That's $55k without flying extra or per diem. The whole reason this happened was first officers leaving for other opportunities. In the future if compensation is too low this will happen again. So things are covered on that front. This current package is a way for the airline to grow. At the end of the day there may be a time where things again stagnate and the bonus expires and again $39 will be what some first officer have to live on. Once again they can seek life elsewhere and the company can choose how to adress this. One reason the company might not want to raise FO pay scale and make it longer is this would encourage first officers to sit there. All the 7-9 year first officers will be offered upgrade in the next year and then we will quickly get back to first officers with less than 2 year seniority.

 

I'm with you, stop looking in the past for negatives. Start looking forward and get ALPA to apply its merger policy equally when a mainline buys a regional or another mainline and drop its "similar gage equipment" arguments.

 

I'm not sure about the appropriateness of posting company communications on a public forum verbatim, so ordinarily I do not do this. However this is all good stuff that may help with recruitment and nothing in here is confidential, so this time I think it's ok. Note: I added the bolding in response to the OP.

Email with the subject line "Memo from John" which came out last friday in conjunction with the TA being finalized.

"Late Friday night, Endeavor senior leadership and the ALPA Negotiating Committee reached a Tentative Agreement (TA) on a plan that will allow Endeavor to grow our flying capabilities in 2016 and beyond, while stabilizing the support system for our existing pilots. While this TA includes some attractive financial incentives to appeal to high quality pilot candidates, it also addresses items that allow us to improve the overall quality of life for our existing pilot group.

In order to grow at the pace we are aiming for in 2016, we had to get aggressive in our strategy with regards to pilot recruitment and retention, as well as improving the efficiency with which we train pilots. We have also agreed to extend and increase our annual retention payments for all Endeavor pilots, including an increased first year pay rate and training bonus for new hires, as well as build in some protections that will make your experience here more rewarding. In return, ALPA will allow Endeavor more control of the OE scheduling process and count on earlier report times for pilots.

A big part of this agreement also revolves around our ability to unpark CRJ-200s to increase our lines of flying for Delta. We have plans to build the CRJ-200 fleet up to 53 aircraft by August, which will complement our existing 81 CRJ-900 aircraft; our fleet plan for 2016 will be to operate 134 aircraft. This fleet plan will foster rapid career progression for our existing pilots, while allowing us to offer movement to the nearly 600 new pilots we plan to hire next year.

This agreement is an important part of our growth strategy for 2016. I’d like to thank ALPA Leadership for their professionalism and respectful candor while working with the Company to reach this TA. Both sides worked together with the goal of stabilizing the support system for our pilots, while securing the future growth of our airline.
2016 and beyond present an incredible opportunity for us here at Endeavor. We’re growing, we’re stable, and we have the support of Delta to back these strategic initiatives. Together, we can continue to build Endeavor into the industry’s premier regional airline.
Best regards,"

 

I agree. The long time on reserve and long upgrades and seniority stagnation that Yum and others refer to was a result of a conflagration of conditions the likes of which are unlikely to ever occur in conjunction again. In short they are: the age 65 rule change; the 2nd worst economic downturn in US history; and merging of three pilot seniority lists and subsequent training bubble and bankruptcy of the company.

Any one of those things is entirely likely to happen again in this industry. But the likelihood of them ALL occurring again, at the same time, to the same company is basically nil.

The age change was the biggest driver of that stagnation and that's now in the past. Just look at the retirement lists at the majors and it's plainly obvious that movement will be the norm, not the exception for at least the next 10 years. Even if all major airlines where to shrink capacity, they would still have to hire to compensate for attrition. Sure, they might lose 10 and hire 7, but they're still hiring. I don't think we'll see furloughs and back sliding anytime in the foreseeable future. Any shrinkage will just be accomplished through attrition. If the FAA where to change the rule to age 67 or do away with it all together I don't honestly think it would make a significant difference in pilot demand. Most of the guys in their 60's planned to retire at 60 or 65 so they should be in good shape. Most of them will still opt to spend those years on their boat.

The economic downturn is the most likely of the three factors, but again with the retirements coming we can weather pretty drastic cuts in capacity without stopping hiring at the majors. In addition, the population is growing again (Millenials outnumber baby boomers now) and demand will rise with population. The biggest threat here is top end scope, the Arab state subsidized carriers, and operations like NAI. I would suggest we all consider backing the ALPA PAC, even if you're not exactly thrilled with ALPA itself. The PAC is separate and is focused on lobbying for us in Washington.

Finally will there be more airline bankruptcies and mergers? Is the Pope Catholic? But again, without the other two factors also coming into play, it is unlikely that it would lead to furloughs or massive stagnation. It is also highly unlikely that it will be YOUR airline. The big ones are in pretty good shape and have figured out how to do this profitably. Consolidation has virtually ended the aggressive price wars of the 90's, and airplanes are incredibly fuel efficient now compared to 10 years ago. And as we know, most of the airline bankruptcies where shams anyway. It may not stop as a business practice, but when you are applying to your next airline, I'd suggest looking at their financials. A company with billions in the bank is pretty hard to put through a sham bankruptcy.

So no the sky is not falling and it is highly unlikely that it will anytime soon, at least not to anything like the extent that we have experienced in the past six or seven years.

 

Ok, most of this stuff is making me feel a lot better about starting next month. Next step (should I get that far...not taking anything for granted), is to learn how best to manage reserve and commuting!

I drive to work now, M-F, 8-6 (1 hour drive, too) and mostly have weekends off, so you might think I'm nuts...but I'll say this. It's 8-9 days off a month, gone dark to dark so I'm hardly home anyway, with no prospect of gaining seniority for a better schedule. I've never had 15 or 17 days off a month, so even if I commute on days off, i'll eventually come out ahead still. Yes I'm sure it's stressful, hoping to get on flights (I'm hoping for BOS-NYC at some point), but my approach is "it's not about me"...people are counting on me to get them places, and I need to make that happen. It's my job, so I need to do what I can to accomplish it. It's a pretty sweet deal that I can even have the option of commuting and not uprooting where I've been for 20 years, so there's that side of the coin. I plan on asking knowledgeable people for advice and making the best of it.

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And yes, I understand it's 11 days off minimum and I'll get that for a while but at least there's the hope down the line of getting 15 or more days off a month

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Lifers and new hires.

 

Based on APC retirement data, 9,531 pilots will reach age 65 through 2022 at AA/UA/DL alone.

That is Endeavor, Skywest, Envoy and Republic's pilot groups combined. Pilots that haven't even been hired by the regionals yet will be at the majors within 7 years.

 

Nice...we should change handles as you dropped the most appropriate 'Voice of Reason' in this whole conversation. ** Raises coffee mug, offers sip of respect **

 

And that is just to MAINTAIN their current capacity! Any growth in fleet would add to those numbers! AA has a ton of A/C on order, some of which will be growth. DAL has 321's and 350's coming, some of which is growth, and UAL is adding 190's after their TA passed. So yeah, the dog days are over.

I would think twice about leaving here to go to places like Kalitta, Allegient, USA Jet, and any other third tier non-regional. That's where the hurt will be felt! They'll be starved of pilots in no time and I see no way they'll be able to get out of that. They'll likely end up going through a bunch of consolidations and bankruptcies and many of them may still fold. Their only hope is that enough people get DUI's and certificate actions to keep them staffed (I say somewhat in jest).