theUpsideDown

I understand this sounds crazy from you alls side of the fence, but we are going to work on us first. We aint here to save the world.

Kforekyle

The more Endeavor’s problem grows, the more Delta’s problem grows.

PilotBases

Delta has their solution. It’s call hiring 50 pilots a week and insourcing the flying.

It’s an industry issue. Skywest lost a net 75 in one month. Legacies are aware of what’s happening and already making changes. Delta has the 220 (look at the bid pack of how much firmer RJ stuff it’s done in NYC/SEA/SLC), United has announced single class 50s are going, and American has JB doing more feeder and shuttle flying. AA tried retention with their WOs and it’s done nothing to stem attrition. Fact is regionals will shrink, and every legacy has made their plans for years on the exit moves.

1/4 of EDV is on year 1 pay, and a large chunk of high payroll (plus vacation, sick) pilots will be gone in a year. That means a leaner more efficient pilot group, cheaper pilots. I think the next step is as staffing hits, the 200s go. Single fleet further improves the cost base and staffing efficiency.

They aren’t going to spend crazy money to keep 200s flying, especially with the payload hits it is taking now.

web500sjc

EDV wants to hire 70+/month. By the end of 2022, if attrition remains the same as hiring, your looking at 40% of the airline being on probation and year 1 pay. If a pilot spends all their off time flying- you can maybe get 700 hours/year at EDV- so your also looking at 40% lacking the 1000 121 hours to upgrade. If you have to shrink the operation because EDV lacks captains, it will take longer to get the FOs 121 time (more FOs fighting over less flights).

The industry needs to figure out how to keep captains on CRJ9s and E175s, I’m sure Ed, Doug and Scott will have their innovative methods, but they need to work on them quick (while running their own airline).

BaldEagleSq

I can see that. It does nothing more than pass the buck to an FFD (e.g. OO), but it would certainly come with some cost savings for 9E.

The more I think about this I realize there won't be a real, definitive solution (re: attrition) that actually works in the next 3-5 years.

FliesInSoup

Delta has already agreed to hire Endeavor's Captains and hiring them all immediately doesn't even require a side letter; just flow 1,000 now. Putting them on temporary assignment at Endeavor solves the attrition problem and ensures it's survival. Pilot pay is trivial compared to canceling flights, shrinking the airline, losing NYC slots and paying for unused airframes. This solution is coming. It's only a matter of months.

PilotBases

That would require DALPA concurrence, why would they agree?

FliesInSoup

Sure it does, just like the conccurance they provided for the flow.

PilotBases

That was a previously existing LOA that was deemed still active. There’s no LOA providing the ability for 1,000 Delta seniority list pilots to fly at another carrier. Why would Delta want to pay RJ captains Delta rates anyways?

The 220 fleet is set to double still will orders outstanding, and it sounds like more 717s are coming back. The RJ replacement plans are right in front of you.

ZeroTT

A big part of the solution is that the 200/145 are going away.

they will figure some way to staff the 64-76 seat flying but the single class RJ’s only last as long as they have captains to fly them