Yes. So once we get to the 10/11 hires then we're pretty much at a 2/3 yr upgrade.

Assuming present conditions continue, of course.

 

Correct me if I am missing something, but at 75 people per upgrade bid, even if every other month, that seems to be less than 2 years. Unless this last 75 was a fluke.

 

It was around 70 for the August notice and 45-50ish for the one in Novemeber. Hopefully the higher number is the norm but we'll see.

 

What is your angle posting on these threads, are you going to keep collecting information for another 6 months before you make a decision? By the time you make a decision (or have the qualifications??) the whole landscape will have changed. No doubt, making an informed decision is smart but I'm not sure how much of an informed decision you'll be able to make by surfing this place non-stop posting questions in every regional thread. At some point you just have to make a decision and start trying to build seniority.

The latest vacancy had 75 upgrades, the public plan at this point is 300 upgrades this year - so there will most likely not be vacancies with 75 upgrades every other month.

 

Thanks for your input.

 

Trying to figure out your potential upgrade has nothing to do with the length of time current pilots are upgrading in. When a Endeavor pilot tells you its an 9 year upgrade, that is for the 2007 hires. With the hundreds flowing to Delta in 2016-2017, 2015 hires will hold upgrade in a heartbeat. Just because a 2015 hire holds upgrade in 2017, doesn't mean a pilot hired in 2016-2017 will hold upgrade in 2 years. It could be sooner, it could be later.

More or less, upgrade is predicated on the movement above you and growth. In simple terms, 50% above you need to leave to upgrade, in a no growth environment. That said, you can probably hold it around 55%.

With the pilots flowing to Delta in the coming years and their growth, Endeavor will have the best prospects for someone starting now. Add on top of that their $52,000+/year base and it is as good of a bet you can make in this environment. Going forward, they will also have the best prospects, with Envoy sneaking up behind them with their good flow to AA. Things can change, but in this pilot pay shortage environment and mainline hiring, those would be the best and safest bets right now.

 

There is no flow to Delta. Do not mischaracterize the SSP.

It is a guaranteed interview... that is it. Compass has a similar deal. Things are changing for the better at 9E, but you are off in lala land with your posts. Cut it out.

 

Compass has nothing right now, re: guaranteed interview/flow. All flows are gone. And no guaranteed interview. I do hope we work something out though. Also, all the flows having gone and doing well in training will impress DL, I am sure.

 

He means to say CJO Holder movement to DL... As there are over 300 in the pool now. Once you get a yes with the the SSP it's sorta like a flow... A glacial flow granted

 

I understand most of that, and thank you Sir for summarizing it so well. I am trying to explain that to a friend, but I could not have done it nearly as succinctly, so I shall simply copy/paste your explanation.

I also understand there is no flow to DL, per se, as said after your post, but I think what you meant is that people ARE moving to Delta. They will also be moving to AA & UA with retirements happening. Point is, stagnation should not be an issue going forward as it has for many years.