New Flow Realities
12-04-2017 | 06:11 AM
#43
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 39
Likes: 0
12-05-2017 | 10:59 PM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,869
Likes: 117
If you go to a DAL job fair (I think they stopped going to WAI, NGPA, OBAP) or have an internal letter of red, they guarantee that your App will be scored.
If you score the minimum points, you'll get the interview invite. The review process is manual, compared with UAL or AA.
If you score the minimum points, you'll get the interview invite. The review process is manual, compared with UAL or AA.
12-05-2017 | 11:52 PM
#45
On Reserve
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 122
Likes: 0
Wasn't this flow reduction always the plan?
This was posted 2/1/2017 @07:09 pm in the Envoy thread. I remembered reading something like this about Envoy's flow; I had to search for it.
This was posted 2/1/2017 @07:09 pm in the Envoy thread. I remembered reading something like this about Envoy's flow; I had to search for it.
From their own materials, (Q3 2016), they had 202 of the 824 group, flowing at 30/mo (7 months), 1109 of the Protected Pilot group flowing at 25/mo (44 months), 149 of the DOS group flowing at 15/mo (10 months), and 295 new hires after 12/14 flowing at 15/mo (20 months)
If they added 30/mo for 10/16 thru 1/2017 = 120 NH (8 months to flow them)
With NO attrition, I add the months 7 + 44 + 10 + 20 + 8 = 89 months + 10/2016 = 3/2024 flow date for a 2/2017 NH. 7 years!
or to answer your question, the first NH after 12/14 will flow at 61 months from 10/16, or 11/21.
However, attrition is huge - they have 1800 pilots. If one assumes 15/month (about 1%) attrition, which will be all senior to the NH in the beginning (though all junior at the end). This means a quicker flow.
So I would guess that 7 years is the outside number. I think they are posting inside 6 yr flow, and I think that is not outlandish. But don't think 3-4 years - no one is projecting that.
No, I don't work there.
If they added 30/mo for 10/16 thru 1/2017 = 120 NH (8 months to flow them)
With NO attrition, I add the months 7 + 44 + 10 + 20 + 8 = 89 months + 10/2016 = 3/2024 flow date for a 2/2017 NH. 7 years!
or to answer your question, the first NH after 12/14 will flow at 61 months from 10/16, or 11/21.
However, attrition is huge - they have 1800 pilots. If one assumes 15/month (about 1%) attrition, which will be all senior to the NH in the beginning (though all junior at the end). This means a quicker flow.
So I would guess that 7 years is the outside number. I think they are posting inside 6 yr flow, and I think that is not outlandish. But don't think 3-4 years - no one is projecting that.
No, I don't work there.
12-06-2017 | 08:43 AM
#46
Line Holder
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 416
Likes: 0
From: CFI
Awesome point. Attrition is a huge factor. Not everyone is sticking around for the flow. Actually about half are. 300 a year lost to flow, another 300 a year lost to other carriers. That's 300 a year giving up their "right" to flow.
12-06-2017 | 10:09 AM
#47
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 325
Likes: 0
I think you are far exaggerating outside attrition. It seems far too many are complacently waiting patiently for the flow. In my opinion, everyone needs to be actively pursuing ALL the majors much more enthusiastically. The flow is "too good to be true;" each month the flow gets delayed later and later.
12-06-2017 | 04:21 PM
#48
Line Holder
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 416
Likes: 0
From: CFI
I think you are far exaggerating outside attrition. It seems far too many are complacently waiting patiently for the flow. In my opinion, everyone needs to be actively pursuing ALL the majors much more enthusiastically. The flow is "too good to be true;" each month the flow gets delayed later and later.
I do completely agree with you though, that flow shouldn't be depended upon.... That wasn't my point though. Point is, if we're basing flow and projected flow on actual flow'ers ahead of us, those are flawed numbers. Attrition to other airlines has to be accounted for
12-06-2017 | 04:32 PM
#49
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 674
Likes: 0
Well if the numbers are wrong (600 a year that envoy is losing) then you're right... But it's not my exaggeration. If it's truly 600 a year, then it's accurate (the 300/300).
I do completely agree with you though, that flow shouldn't be depended upon.... That wasn't my point though. Point is, if we're basing flow and projected flow on actual flow'ers ahead of us, those are flawed numbers. Attrition to other airlines has to be accounted for
I do completely agree with you though, that flow shouldn't be depended upon.... That wasn't my point though. Point is, if we're basing flow and projected flow on actual flow'ers ahead of us, those are flawed numbers. Attrition to other airlines has to be accounted for
12-06-2017 | 08:21 PM
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
Likes: 0
Attrition outside the flow
If there is attrition outside the flow, it is minimal, certainly among captains. I’ve only flown with a handful of captains who even say they maintain a log book. Yes, they could have one printed from Envoy records if need be, but these are guys who have given up on anything besides the flow. One guy said he had a few friends hired outside the flow. Not positive they were both to AA, but they had been vigorously pursuing job fairs for a while AND they both have what we can refer to as “additional attributes” that most in the industry weren’t born with.
I think the reality is if you can’t significantly stand out from the crowd, whether with Space Shuttle command time or the ability to add “diversity” to a company, you are just another resume and it will take a while for your number to come up to even interview.
YMMV, just my .02 and that is probably all it is worth.
I think the reality is if you can’t significantly stand out from the crowd, whether with Space Shuttle command time or the ability to add “diversity” to a company, you are just another resume and it will take a while for your number to come up to even interview.
YMMV, just my .02 and that is probably all it is worth.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
