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Old 05-17-2019 | 02:53 PM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
There is an inherent advantage to the non-legacies with young pilots groups where NO ONE has the time on property to be at the top of the payscale.

Individuals going there rather than waiting it out for legacies might very well wind up being the ones who are making the right move.
To your point — yesterday, May 16th, American took out $750 million in unsecured notes @ 5% per annum just to help fund pensions.

Before this they had what, $4 billion in assets and $22+ billion in liabilities? Which begs another question for new hires coming here for the flow and pilots already on property at Envoy ... do you even really want to work at AA? It’s definitely not at the top of my list. Sure, it’s better than any regional, but I’d argue most other major carriers are better to work for.
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Old 05-17-2019 | 05:39 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Voski
To your point — yesterday, May 16th, American took out $750 million in unsecured notes @ 5% per annum just to help fund pensions.

Before this they had what, $4 billion in assets and $22+ billion in liabilities? Which begs another question for new hires coming here for the flow and pilots already on property at Envoy ... do you even really want to work at AA? It’s definitely not at the top of my list. Sure, it’s better than any regional, but I’d argue most other major carriers are better to work for.
Anybody that thinks that anyone in the airline business has it made can think again. It’s a volatile industry.
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Old 05-17-2019 | 08:43 PM
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Just to name a few.
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Old 05-18-2019 | 04:06 AM
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The best way to really understand the health of the company is to listen (or read) the earnings call transcripts. Not the presentation by the executives, but rather the Q&A with the Wall Street analysts at the end. There is really good stuff in there, and easy enough to digest to help you decide if you like AA’s strategic direction. The analysts don’t hold back and ask poignant questions about cost, revenue, stock buy backs, etcetera. Last month their was even an awkward jab at the lack of Scott Kirby. The last few quarters, AA’s stock has been up (marginally) immediately following the call, hinting that the investors are ‘okay’ with AA’s answers.

I spent 5 years at AA, and will reiterate that the fundamentals are strong...very solid network, efficient fleet makeup, robust hub strategy. What’s arguably weak is the overall product and brand perception (driven by many factors) resulting in passengers not willing to pay Delta yields. This will change, as essentially Wall Street demands Delta like yields. We get very worked up about the debt load of AA, and I try not to comment on debt as nearly all of it is aircraft, which has a cash value. This is the main reason that Wall Street barely mentions the debt load on these calls.

Keep in mind, Delta was very weak until 2008, and United was until mid 2018. I would rather be on the front side of this improvement wave than anywhere else. Plus with 47 group 4 aircraft on form order (replacing 22-32 group 3/4). Times are good to be an AA pilot.
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Old 05-18-2019 | 04:54 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by FlyPurdue
The best way to really understand the health of the company is to listen (or read) the earnings call transcripts. Not the presentation by the executives, but rather the Q&A with the Wall Street analysts at the end. There is really good stuff in there, and easy enough to digest to help you decide if you like AA’s strategic direction. The analysts don’t hold back and ask poignant questions about cost, revenue, stock buy backs, etcetera. Last month their was even an awkward jab at the lack of Scott Kirby. The last few quarters, AA’s stock has been up (marginally) immediately following the call, hinting that the investors are ‘okay’ with AA’s answers.



I spent 5 years at AA, and will reiterate that the fundamentals are strong...very solid network, efficient fleet makeup, robust hub strategy. What’s arguably weak is the overall product and brand perception (driven by many factors) resulting in passengers not willing to pay Delta yields. This will change, as essentially Wall Street demands Delta like yields. We get very worked up about the debt load of AA, and I try not to comment on debt as nearly all of it is aircraft, which has a cash value. This is the main reason that Wall Street barely mentions the debt load on these calls.



Keep in mind, Delta was very weak until 2008, and United was until mid 2018. I would rather be on the front side of this improvement wave than anywhere else. Plus with 47 group 4 aircraft on form order (replacing 22-32 group 3/4). Times are good to be an AA pilot.


I agree. I use apps like Seeking Alpha that makes it easy to see notes and transcripts from board meetings, analysis calls, etc.

Delta didn’t do well until a few years after full completion with the merger. AA hasn’t been completed for over a year yet as it happened fairly recently. Things always change in the industry and I don’t think AA will falter much as long as they keep executing their plan!


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Old 05-18-2019 | 05:00 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by FlyPurdue
The best way to really understand the health of the company is to listen (or read) the earnings call transcripts. Not the presentation by the executives, but rather the Q&A with the Wall Street analysts at the end. There is really good stuff in there, and easy enough to digest to help you decide if you like AA’s strategic direction. The analysts don’t hold back and ask poignant questions about cost, revenue, stock buy backs, etcetera. Last month their was even an awkward jab at the lack of Scott Kirby. The last few quarters, AA’s stock has been up (marginally) immediately following the call, hinting that the investors are ‘okay’ with AA’s answers.

I spent 5 years at AA, and will reiterate that the fundamentals are strong...very solid network, efficient fleet makeup, robust hub strategy. What’s arguably weak is the overall product and brand perception (driven by many factors) resulting in passengers not willing to pay Delta yields. This will change, as essentially Wall Street demands Delta like yields. We get very worked up about the debt load of AA, and I try not to comment on debt as nearly all of it is aircraft, which has a cash value. This is the main reason that Wall Street barely mentions the debt load on these calls.

Keep in mind, Delta was very weak until 2008, and United was until mid 2018. I would rather be on the front side of this improvement wave than anywhere else. Plus with 47 group 4 aircraft on form order (replacing 22-32 group 3/4). Times are good to be an AA pilot.
Keep telling yourself that! Let me guess, you are on the bottom of the reserve list with 4 years or more to flow. Kirby is smart. He saw us airways going to take over AA and left with his 13 million dollar parachute and is now United president. AA strategy is all wrong. Even Spirit is above and beyond AA. AA needs a complete culture overhaul if it ever wants to be rank 3 ever again. Sad really.
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Old 05-18-2019 | 05:40 AM
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Just to clarify I don’t hate my job, I just hate it more than a year ago. It feels bad knowing I’m doing better and better and still falling further and further behind my peers in pay, QOL, etc.
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Old 05-18-2019 | 05:42 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by ERAUAV8TR
Keep telling yourself that! Let me guess, you are on the bottom of the reserve list with 4 years or more to flow. Kirby is smart. He saw us airways going to take over AA and left with his 13 million dollar parachute and is now United president. AA strategy is all wrong. Even Spirit is above and beyond AA. AA needs a complete culture overhaul if it ever wants to be rank 3 ever again. Sad really.


Good lord. Do you read theIr stock analysis that’s put out? Quarterly updates? You can’t be number one all the time, if you don’t like the AA eco system by bashing flow and the company who you’re going to get into then just go to Spirit. Or maybe they didn’t teach business classes at ERAU?


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Old 05-18-2019 | 06:13 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by FlyPurdue
The best way to really understand the health of the company is to listen (or read) the earnings call transcripts. Not the presentation by the executives, but rather the Q&A with the Wall Street analysts at the end. There is really good stuff in there, and easy enough to digest to help you decide if you like AA’s strategic direction. The analysts don’t hold back and ask poignant questions about cost, revenue, stock buy backs, etcetera. Last month their was even an awkward jab at the lack of Scott Kirby. The last few quarters, AA’s stock has been up (marginally) immediately following the call, hinting that the investors are ‘okay’ with AA’s answers.

I spent 5 years at AA, and will reiterate that the fundamentals are strong...very solid network, efficient fleet makeup, robust hub strategy. What’s arguably weak is the overall product and brand perception (driven by many factors) resulting in passengers not willing to pay Delta yields. This will change, as essentially Wall Street demands Delta like yields. We get very worked up about the debt load of AA, and I try not to comment on debt as nearly all of it is aircraft, which has a cash value. This is the main reason that Wall Street barely mentions the debt load on these calls.

Keep in mind, Delta was very weak until 2008, and United was until mid 2018. I would rather be on the front side of this improvement wave than anywhere else. Plus with 47 group 4 aircraft on form order (replacing 22-32 group 3/4). Times are good to be an AA pilot.
The question is, do we really think that Doug is the right person to lead the transformation of AA. Richard Anderson was clearly the right man for the job at Delta, he made that merger work. I don’t worry about the debt load, I worry about the culture of the airlines. Adding seats, taking away amenities, feuding with employees, cutting corners. These are the things that worked at America West for Doug, but aren’t working at AA. A complete overhaul has to happen and Doug is not the person to lead that overhaul. It will be the status quo until he’s shown the door.
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Old 05-18-2019 | 06:28 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by UncreativeUser
Good lord. Do you read theIr stock analysis that’s put out? Quarterly updates? You can’t be number one all the time, if you don’t like the AA eco system by bashing flow and the company who you’re going to get into then just go to Spirit. Or maybe they didn’t teach business classes at ERAU?


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Having to borrow 750 million @ 5% just to satisfy pension obligations isn't good business strategy no matter what the college's are teaching today. It is another indication of serious trouble. Debt loads backed up by depreciating aircraft assets aren't the worst thing if kept to a manageable level. 22 billion is starting to stretch manageable. Borrowing that 750 mil is telling that AA is having trouble meeting obligations. Otherwise, why borrow at 5%?
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