So in the spirit of keeping up with the theme of TheKooj saying the complete opposite of what actually happens... it’s confirmed that AA goes completely under in 2021. Assets will be bought up by Spirit and Frontier forming two new super LCCs.

 

Remember Boeing CEO said earlier this year that “one big airline is goin to go under just a matter of time”. It will be a blood bath, this is nothing compared to previous downturns, good luck to us all. Start looking at plan B options for another career, I hate it but, it is what it is.

40 BILLION in DEBT is not goin to go away overnight!

 

More furloughs are coming soon. Guaranteed.

 

thats nice of you. A lot of folks aren’t like that.

 

Best comedic post of the year. You do know who does better in economic downturns with CASM, etc. correct? LCC/ULCC business models are better built to weather these storms. Have you seen the loads at Spirit/Frontier lately?

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Let me guess. You are an economist and have worked in airline management to know this information?

Right. NOT. Because it's absolutely incorrect. American has the biggest economy of scale of any of the legacy carriers and they are the best positioned to weather the crisis and come out with a large gain in market share on the other side. The proportionate savings in cost with this increased level of production solidifies that aspect.

I will say that I own a WARN letter and I am VERY bullish on American Airlines. In a worst case scenario, I wouldn't stoop to the level of working for one of those sweatshops.

 

How are you at saying “Would you like fries with your KoolAid”?

 

It isn’t just the load factors (although with cheap enough fares you could probably sell out the back of a dump truck) it’s the model.

Every pilot they have can fly every aircraft they have. A falloff in international or business flying doesn’t require you to train someone currently flying a 787 (and whose previous type was a 727) to fly a 777 before you can train the guy displaced from the 777 to fly a 767 so you can train the guy who was displaced from the 767 to fly an A320 so you can train the guy displaced from the A320 to fly a 737 before you can furlough the first year 737 FO so you can save $7k a month after paying for 4 training events and 6 months of senior pilot down time. And then you have four PO’d senior guys still making 12 year scale.

If they need to furlough, NK and F9 tell their junior FO (who is making maybe $4K a month) hasta la vista and everybody else presses on.

And no captain is gonna need a new type rating to downgrade to FO either.

So yeah, you better believe NK and F9 will be recalling furloughed people and hiring new people long before AA will.

 

Nope. The plethora of fleet types and the effect of the seniority system absolutely HAMMERS that argument.

Single type fleets - SWA, NK, and F9, are going to gain tremendously in domestic market share, especially now that they will be less constrained by gate ability anywhere. And with all the airline bankruptcies worldwide, they will be able to pick up new and nearly new aircraft in their single type fleets at rock bottom prices, while AA is still in debt from aircraft purchases they made before COVID, when aircraft were at a huge premium to what they are today and when financing was far more expensive than what it is today with the Fed flooding the market to try to stave off a recession.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/436...for-bankruptcy

 

Leisure is over when summer is over.

there is no business travel